Upcoming Match-ups

Roma vs Juventus Odds & Pick: Under 2.5 Is 4-0 in Recent Serie A Matches

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 1:57 PM PDT

Cristiano Juve
Juve will be hoping Cristiano Ronaldo continues his hot scoring streak on Sunday when they visit fourth-placed Roma.Photo By Anton Zaitsev (Wiki Commons)
  • Two of Serie A’s top four clash in Rome on Sunday
  • Juve’s quest for successive titles sees them needing a win over Roma to keep pressure on Inter
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

It’s second vs fourth in Serie A this weekend, as Roma entertain Juventus at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, January 12, 2:45 pm EST. For Juve, who are only second on goal difference, the title remains the ultimate aim but for Roma, a place in the Champions League beckons if they can stay in the top four.

Their recent matches in the league have been low-scoring affairs – 2-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 – but will this trend continue? We’ll take a look and see if along the way we can’t identify same value for the bettors.

Roma vs Juventus Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Roma pk, +0.5 (-109) +198 O 2.5, 3 (-101)
Juventus pk, -0.5 (-111) +126 U 2.5, 3 (-119)
Draw N/A +240 N/A

All odds taken Jan. 08

Rome a Tough Place to Conquer

Juve start this one as slight favorites but sportsbooks odds suggest there isn’t too much to choose between the two. Despite having a significant ten-point lead over Roma, the Old Lady has traditionally found the Romans tough opponents and these games are usually finally balanced. This one will be no different.

Last season, the game in Rome ended 2-0 to the hosts – goals from Alessandro Florenzi and Edin Džeko – while the match in Turin was decided in favor of Juve with a single goal from Mario Mandžukić. So, there are few pointers from last season to help the punters but maybe there will be something in their respective seasons so far that will give us some idea as to the outcome.

Defensively, this is very much the Juve of old and their experienced and miserly back-line have conceded only 17 goals so far – less than one goal per game. Some things never change. But Roma are not far behind and have conceded only two goals more, at a smidgen over one per game.

YouTube video

Plenty of Attacking Prowess on Show at Stadio Olimpico

Both teams do have clean sheets in them, so never rule out the goal-less draw, although, it has to be said, only one of their last 32 games has ended 0-0. For two teams with such Italian defenses, that is something of an anomaly. But there is unquestionably value here in the draw at +240 and even more so in the goalless draw at +1200.

What that ignores, of course, is that attacking prowess of both teams which is why, despite their impressive defensive stats, there have been so few 0-0s between them. For Roma, who have scored an impressive 33 goals in their 18 games, the goals have been spread across the team, although Džeko leads the way with seven. For Juve – 35 goals in 18 games – it’s more clear cut with, unsurprisingly, Cristiano Ronald their leading scorer on 13.

Roma vs Juventus Head-to-Head

10  /18 No. of Serie A wins in 2019/20 / No. of games played 14 / 18
3 No. of Serie A defeats 1
4th Position in Serie A 2nd
33 / 1.83 Goals scored / Per game 35 / 1.94
294 / 87 Shots / Shots on target 327 / 113
19 / 1.06 Goals conceded / Per game 17 / 0.94
7,477 Completed passes 9,611

Juve the Passing Kings

An interesting stat to emerge when compiling the table above,  is how much more of the ball Juve have than Roma, having completed over 2,000 more passes over the course of the season so far. This tells us they are a possession-based team who like to have a lot of the ball and so part of the Roma plan must be to deny them this.

Equally telling is that Juve’s pass completion  – ie. completed passes as a percentage of total passes completed – is the highest in Serie A at 86.6 percent, compared to Roma’s 82.2. So, as well as having most of the ball, Juventus also are the most accurate team with their passing.

YouTube video

Roma Edging the Goal Conversion Stat

Roma will need to get ‘in their faces’ – to use an English soccer term – to stop the Turin team from dictating proceedings on their own terms. Only if they can do this successfully can the Romans succeed.

One stat in Roma’s favor is ‘goals as a percentage of shots taken’. Their 33 goals have come from 294 shots – a goal every 8.9 shots – which compares favorably to Juve’s 35 from 327 (a goal every 9.3 shots).

So, expect a close one in the Stadio Olimpico with a goal, either way, being enough to settle it, and there’s certainly a good argument for it ending a draw. But Juve are reigning champions for a reason and have acquired the ability to eke out wins from tight games. This may just be enough to tilt the balance.

Pick: Juve to win (+126)

Author Image