Roma vs Leverkusen Odds & Prediction – Europa League Semifinals Leg 1

• It’s Roma vs Leverkusen in the first leg of the semifinal of the 2022-23 Europa League
• Roma, the winners of the 2022 Europa Conference League, start as narrow favorites
• Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Roma vs Leverkusen in the semifinal of the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, May 11, with kick-off in Rome’s Stadio Olimpico at 3:00 pm ET.

Roma will be looking to follow up their win in last season’s Europa Conference League with a Europa League Final place, but first they have to get past Xavi Alonso’s, Bayer Leverkusen. The winner here takes on the victors of the other semifinal, Juventus vs Sevilla, in Budapest on May 31.

We preview our Roma vs Leverkusen picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Roma vs Leverkusen Odds

The bookmakers have Roma listed as plus-money favorites at +125 to win with an implied win probability of 44%, while Leverkusen are offered at +250 to win the game with a probability of 29%. The draw is priced at +220 in the Roma vs Leverkusen odds and is implied at 31%. The Germans are -120 favorites to make it to the final after both legs.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on May 11.

Roma vs Leverkusen Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have listed the under at -160 and the over at a more tempting +130. They anticipate a tight, low-scoring tie.

Roma vs Leverkusen Preview

With Jose Mourinho in charge, Roma have developed a liking for European competition culminating in them winning the 2022 Europa Conference League with a victory over Feyenoord in the final – their prize being a place in this season’s Europa League.  In the previous season, they made it to the Europa League semifinal only to be beaten by Manchester United.

In order to put Mourinho’s Euro success into some perspective, it’s worth noting that the Romans have progressed in 10 of their last 11 ties – a run that most recently includes seven successes in a row – and have lost only once in their last 25 European games in the Stadio Olimpico

Focused. 🐺 #ASRoma #UEL pic.twitter.com/jp2TV5Jhk4

— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) May 10, 2023

Poor Form for Roma

To make it to this semifinal, Roma qualified from Group C as runners-up behind Real Betis and then, in the knockout phase, saw off RB Salzburg, Real Sociedad, and Feyenoord (again). Of some concern to them will be their current domestic form though, where they have gone four games without a win.

At the weekend they suffered a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Inter Milan, and have now dropped off the pace in the hunt for the Champions League places. With just four games remaining they have to make up a five-point deficit to give themselves a chance.

Leverkusen’s Alonso Factor

While the Mourinho factor is a big part of Roma’s European success, the same can also be said of the Alonso effect on Bayer Leverkusen. After the Spanish international worked his way through the Real Sociedad coaching setup, he was identified by the Germans as the man to turn around their faltering fortunes and they haven’t looked back.

In addition to guiding them to this semifinal, Alonso has also taken them on a 14-game unbeaten run across all competitions – a run that now sees them sixth in the Bundesliga. It’s a run that stretched back to mid-February and only ended last Friday when they were surprisingly beaten 2-1 at home by Koln.

Ready for take-off! 🛫
Next stop: Rome! 📍🇮🇹

🔜 #ASRB04 I #ForOurDream I #UEL I #Bayer04 pic.twitter.com/OobIyZsqH6

— Bayer 04 Leverkusen (@bayer04_en) May 10, 2023

Fourth Euro Semi for Leverkusen

En route to this semifinal, Alonso’s men beat Monaco, Ferencvaros, and the tournament’s surprise package Union Saint-Gilloise, but not before suffering the ignominy of relegation from the Champions League, where they finished third in Group B behind Porto and Club Brugge.

This is the fourth time Leverkusen have made it to the semifinal stage of a European competition. Their best performances came back in 1986-87 when they won the old UEFA Cup and in 2002 when they were beaten finalists in the Champions League final.

Roma vs Leverkusen Team Lineups and Injuries

Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio, Mancini, Cristante, Ibanez, Zalewski, Matic, Wijnaldum, Spinazzola, Pellegrini, Dybala, Abraham.

Injuries & absences: Smalling, Kumbulla.

Leverkusen Projected Lineup: Hradecky, Kossounou, Tah, Hincapie, Frimpong, Andrich, Tapsoba, Bakker, Diaby, Adli, Wirtz.

Injuries & absences: Lunev, Schick, Aranguiz.

Roma vs Leverkusen Head-to-Head Stats

* Stats from the official UEFA site.

Roma vs Leverkusen Prediction

This will be tight. Mourinho will make sure of that. While he would, of course, prefer to take a lead to Germany, he knows all too well the value of not overcommitting and still being in the tie ahead of the second leg.

Therefore, for me, the value here is very much with the low-scoring draw.

Roma vs Leverkusen Pick: The draw (+220)