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Sweden vs USA Odds & Prediction – Women’s World Cup Round of 16

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Aug 5, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

United States forward Alex Morgan. Sweden vs USA
Aug 1, 2023; Auckland, NZL; United States forward Alex Morgan (13) dribbles during the second half a group stage match against Portugal during the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup at Eden Park. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Sweden vs USA in the last 16 in the Women’s World Cup – FIFA’s top-two ranked teams
  • It all kicks off in Melbourne’s Rectangular Stadium at 05:00 am ET on Sunday, August 6
  • Read on here for our Sweden vs USA analysis and predictions

In the early hours of Sunday morning, it’s Sweden vs USA – the two top-ranked teams in the world – who meet in the last 16 of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. It all kicks off in Melbourne’s Rectangular Stadium at 05:00 am ET.

It’s been a difficult tournament for the USA, the tournament favorites, but they managed to make it to the knockout phase via second place in Group E, while the Swedes easily qualified as winners of Group G.

Who will make it through to the last 8? See our Sweden vs USA picks below as we look closely at the Women’s World Cup odds.

Sweden vs USA Odds

Matchup Moneyline To Advance
Sweden +255 +130
USA +120 -160
Draw +200 N/A

At odds of +120 for the win, the USA has an implied win probability of 45.5% for this massive round-of-16 match, while Sweden has an implied win probability of 28.2% based on a moneyline of +255.

The total of 2.5 goals is listed in plus money for the over at +150 while the under is -185 in the DraftKings Sportsbook odds.

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How to Watch Sweden vs USA

Viewers can watch Sunday’s massive Sweden vs USA World Cup last 16 clash on Fox Sports 1 and Telemundo in the US at 05:00 am ET.

Sweden On Fire

Despite starting this game as outsiders, Sweden will fancy their chances against the number one ranked team in the world given that they themselves are ranked 2 and had by far the easier route through to the knockout phase.

Prior to the tournament, Group G looked arguably the most competitive of all but Sweden strolled through to the knockout stages with ease, starting with a narrow victory over South Africa (2-1) before settling in and recording easy wins over Italy (5-0) and Argentina (2-0).

Huge Win Over Italy

The win against Italy, who are ranked 14 in the world by FIFA, was especially impressive and will have acted as a massive wake-up call to those teams who believe they can go on and win this tournament. For all of them, including the USA, the Swedes represent a significant hurdle to that possibility.

Only Japan scored more goals than Sweden in their qualifying group, and so they have all the ammunition they need to make it a very difficult and challenging 90+ minutes for the USA.

Sweden vs USA Head-to-Head Stats

3-0-0 WC 2023 Record 1-2-0
9 / 1 Goals For / Against 4 / 1
58.0 Possession (%)* 51.3
75.9 Pass Accuracy (%)* 68.8
2 FIFA World Ranking 1

* Stats from FBREF.com

Tough Campaign for USWNT

It’s been a difficult few weeks for the USA who have taken plenty of flak from their national media, despite doing enough to make it through to the knockout phase. But their performance level has been poor, and after a lukewarm win over Vietnam on opening day, they drew games 2 and 3 with Netherlands and Portugal respectively.

The USWNT is, by some way, the biggest name in women’s world soccer and has never failed to make it beyond the group stage in the World Cup but was the width of a goalpost away from missing out this time.

The Width of a Goalpost…

In the 91st minute of game 3, Portugal’s Ana Capeta saw her shot cannon into Alyssa Naeher’s right-hand post and rebound to safety. If it had found the back of the net the US women would have been on their way home.

They were that close to being eliminated and that is why they have come under fire from their own media. A repeat of that level of performance against Sweden won’t be good enough to take them through to the last eight.

Sweden vs USA Lineups and Injuries

Sweden Projected Lineup: Falk | Lennartsson, Sandberg, Eriksson, Ilestedt | Jangsy, Jakobsson, Seger, Bennison, Schough | Blomqvist.

Injuries & absences: None.

USA Projected Lineup: Naeher | Girma, Ertz, Dunn, Fox | Horan, Sullivan, Demelo | Williams, Smith, Morgan.

Injuries & absences: Lavelle (suspended).

Sweden vs USA Prediction

This will be close. The bookies think so too, with both teams in plus money and only separated by just 140 moneyline points. But the momentum is all with Sweden who, after an indifferent lead-up to the tournament, have hit a rich vein of form.

For their part, the USWNT have, from somewhere, to find the form that has made them the dominant team for the past decade and the current world champions.

The Swedes will likely dominate possession in this game – and the US will be okay with that – but Vlatko Andonovski’s team will need to be more ruthless in front of goal if they are to progress.

For me, the value is in the draw but also in the Swedes winning after either extra time or penalties.

Sweden vs USA Pick: The draw after 90 mins (+200) & Sweden to advance (+130) at DraftKings.


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