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USA vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – Gold Cup Final August 1

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer

Jul 31, 2021 · 12:03 PM PDT

Gold Cup
United States forward Gyasi Zardes (9) chases after a loose ball during a CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinals soccer match against Jamaica, Sunday, July 25, 2021, in Arlington, Texas. United States won 1-0. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade)
  • USA faces Mexico in the 2021 Gold Cup Final on Sunday, August 1st at 8:30 pm EST
  • The Allegiant Stadium in Paradise plays host to this CONCACAF showpiece
  • We preview the game, look at the odds, and offer a best bet below

Paradise’s Allegiant Stadium plays host to the final of the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup with USA vs Mexico on Sunday, August 1 at 8:30 pm EST – a repeat of the 2019 final which was won 1-0 by Mexico. The US left it late in their semi, scoring four minutes from time to beat Qatar 1-0,  while Mexico edged past Canada with another late goal to win 2-1.

We list the odds, preview USA vs Mexico, and offer below the best bet for this Gold Cup final.

USA vs Mexico Gold Cup Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
USA vs Mexico USA +0.25 (-105) | MEX -0.25 (-110) USA +255 | DRAW +220 | MEX +125 USA Ov 1.5 (+215) | MEX Un 1.5 (-185)

Odds as of July 31st at DraftKings

Three Out of Three for USA

USA was made to work hard in their semi-final with Qatar, and was forced to weather a sustained spell of pressure from their opponents early on before gaining enough control to go on and win the game. It was a close one though, the turning point coming in the 62nd minute when Hassan Al-Haydos missed a penalty for the visitors with the score at 0-0.

In the end, it took a goal four minutes from time from Gyasi Zardes to settle the tie and send USA into their second successive final against the Mexicans.  It was not an especially impressive performance by the hosts but when it really mattered they found a way.

Coach Gregg Berhalter has put together a team that, while not particularly stylish, is playing energetic, effective, winning soccer. Despite having only six shots compared to Qatar’s 17, they got the job done – an invaluable quality when playing tournament soccer.

Good Quarterfinal Record for Jamaica

The semifinal win meant that Berhalter has taken the fewest games of any USA men’s coach to clock up 25 wins. He also picked up his 10th Gold Cup victory in the process – an impressive record in itself. As was the case in 2019, his team’s success has been built on a rock-solid defense. They’ve conceded just a single goal so far in this summer’s tournament.

This will be the seventh time that USA and Mexico have met in the Gold Cup final. The Mexicans hold the upper hand with five wins to date compared to just one for Sunday’s hosts, which came back in 2007. USA does, however, have recent success in a final against Mexico, beating them 3-2 in June at the CONCACAF Nations League.

USA vs Mexico Head-to-Head Stats


5 Gold Cup 2021 Wins 4
0 Draws 1
0 Losses 0
10 Goals for 9
1 Goals against 1
2.0 Average goals per match (AVG) 1.8

Arriola Back to Lead US Attack?

Mexico also had to work very hard to make it to their second successive final against the USA, with Canada taking them to the wire. In the end, it took a goal nine(!) minutes into injury time to seal a 2-1 win for Mexico. They now have the chance to defend their Gold Cup title against the team they beat in the final two years ago.

Like the US, Mexico was far from convincing but still found a way to get over the line even when not playing well. Coach Gerardo Martino was, for the first time in the tournament, less than happy with his defense, who wobbled against the Canadians.

To put it into perspective, it was the first goal they have conceded in competitive soccer since the Nations League final back in June.  If the Mexicans do win on Sunday, it will be the first time any team has successfully defended their Gold Cup title since 2011, when they beat the US 4-2.

USA vs Mexico Best Bet

Mexico’s Gold Cup final experience is extensive and, along the way, their five finals against the USA gives them a significant advantage before a ball has even been kicked. This is especially relevant when we consider how experienced this current Mexico team is and how, the Canada game aside, they have looked so solid defensively.

The US, like Canada, has relied mainly on youth and energy and will look to use that extra physicality and speed to stretch Mexico in the same way the Canadians did. If they can do that successfully then it could make for a tricky evening for the Mexicans but my money is on experience and know-how being the two key components that will win the game. As long as they remain in plus money, the value here is with the Mexico win.

Pick: Mexico to win (+125) 

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