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2019 Australian Open Men’s Singles Odds and Picks

Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic has been on a tear in 2019. Photo by Tatiana Kulitat (flickr) [CC License].
  • Novak Djokovic is heavily favored to win the 2019 Australian Open
  • Do Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have anything left in the tank?
  • Is Alexander Zverev ready to become tennis’ next elite star?

The first tennis Grand Slam of the year is right around the corner as the 2019 Australian Open gets underway on January 14th. All eyes will be on Novak Djokovic to see if the 31-year-old can maintain momentum after finishing the year with wins at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He’s a heavy favorite for this event, so let’s take a closer look at the 2019 Australian Open odds see if he’s worth a play or if there’s value with someone else.

2019 Australian Open Odds

Player Odds To Win 2019 Australian Open at Bovada
Novak Djokovic +120
Roger Federer +550
Rafael Nadal +600
Alexander Zverev +750
Andy Murray +2000
Marin Cilic +2000
Nick Kyrgios +2000

*Follow the link in the table to see all options

Does Novak Djokovic Deserve to Be Such a Heavy Favorite?

Novak Djokovic enters the Aussie Open as the top-ranked player in the world. He’s coming off a heck of a year where he finally got his game back. After struggling through 2017 where he didn’t make it past the quarter-finals in any Grand Slam, he ended up winning both Wimbledon and the U.S. open in 2018. He was an incredible 21-2 at Grand Slams. Overall, he was 23-4 on hard courts last year and 4-1 on indoor hard courts. It’s clear why he’s the favorite.

What About Federer, Nadal?

So who are Djokovic’s chief competitors at the 2019 Australian Open. Of course, Federer is still around and is an ageless wonder. However, Djoker has won four straight and eight of 10 in this series, which shows that father time is catching up with Federer. When they are both at their best, Djokovic wins.

As for Nadal, Rafa has actually won two of the last three meetings but that’s about it. Digging deeper, Djokovic has mopped the floor with him, winning eight of the last 10 meetings with Rafa’s two wins coming on clay. Nadal hasn’t beaten Djokovic on a hard surface since 2013.

So if it’s not any of the big three, who can give Djokovic a challenge? Only four players are inside of 20/1 at the 2019 Australian Open, so the oddsmakers aren’t exactly saying this thing is wide open.

Is This Finally Time for Zverev’s Breakout?

On one hand, Alexander Zverev is just 21 years old. On the other hand, Djokovic had already won the Aussie Open and made it to at least the semi-finals of the other three grand slams by the time he was the same age. So is this late for Zverev or is he still on schedule to be among the next wave of elite men’s players.

He’s coming in with some momentum. Last year, at age 20, he was the youngest player to debut in the Top 20 since Djokovic. He also beat not only Djokovic but also Roger Federer at the ATP World Tour Finals just a few weeks ago. With a price tag of +750, this is the best chance the oddsmakers have ever given him to with the Australian Open – and probably any Grand Slam.

Alexander Zverev is a combined 5-5 in his career against Djokovic and Federer, and 0-5 against Nadal.

Even so, it’s still hard to pull the trigger. He’s never been beyond the third round at the Australian Open and while his record at Grand Slams has improved each year, it’s hard to trust him until we’ve seen him beat the best at one of these events. He’s a combined 5-5 in his career against Djokovic and Federer, and 0-5 against Nadal. Those are his three chief competitors. Until I see him step up in these Grand Slams, I can’t back him just yet.

Best of the Rest?

It’s well known that you only really want to back the Big 3 when it comes to men’s tennis and the Grand Slams.

Federer, Djokovic and Nadal have accounted for 51 of the last 60 Grand Slam victories, including 13 of the last 15 Aussie Opens.

Of course, Andy Murray is an option but he was just 7-5 last year and just lost to Daniil Medvedev at Brisbane. Marin Cilic can surprise but he just lost to both Zverev and Djokovic at the ATP World Tour Finals. And Nick Kyrgios is possibly talented to win it all if he can keep his head in the game for a couple of weeks but we’ve never seen anything close to that. That being the case, your best bet is one of the Big 3.

2019 Australian Open Best Value Picks

  1. Novak Djokovic (+120) – Yes, I know it’s boring but favorites tend to win in tennis.
  2. Alex Zverev (+750) – If we’re looking at value, I’ll take a shot with him over Federer and Nadal.
  3. Milos Raonic (+3300) – He’s struggled with health and consistency in his career, but at +3300, he’ll be my longshot. This is his best Grand Slam as he’s made it to the quarters twice and semis once.
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