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2020 ATP Cup Finals: Serbia vs Spain Odds and Picks

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 4:59 PM PDT

Djokovic and Nadal after a match on clay.
Who'll have the upper hand when Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal clash on Saturday night at the ATP Cup Finals? Photo by Marianne Bevis (Flickr).
  • Serbia and Spain, who meet in the final, are the top two seeds at this tournament
  • Roberto Bautista Agut is 5-0 in his career against Dusan Lajovic
  • Rafael Nadal has a career 136-74 record in doubles play – read below for our match picks

The 2020 ATP Cup Finals have reached the climax as on Saturday, we’ll see Serbia take on Spain for the title. These are the top two entries in this tournament and both have made it all the way through to the finals. With big names like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic set to go head-to-head, what’s the best bet here?

Dusan Lajovic vs Roberto Bautista Agut Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Dusan Lajovic +4.0 (-105) +280 O 22.0 (-105)
Roberto Bautista Agut -4.0 (-125) -360 U 22.0 (-125)

Odds taken Jan. 11.

In case you’re new to the ATP Cup, how these events work is it’s a best-of-three. The two countries will play their two head-to-head singles matches. If we have a winner (if a country wins both), then they win the match. If not, then they’ll play the doubles match as the tiebreaker.

Lajovic is clearly the weaker of the two players for Serbia as Djokovic is arguably among the top two players in the world while Lajovic is currently ranked No. 34. As for Roberto Bautista Agut, he’s also the weaker of the two players but he’s No. 10 in the world, so ranked much higher.


Lajovic was fairly shaky early on in this event as he needed three sets in his matches against France and South Africa. He’s won his last three matches against Chile, Canada and Russia in straight sets though.

As for Bautista Agut, he’s been downright dominant at this event. Not only has he yet to drop a set, he’s lost a total of 19 games across five games. That’s incredible. He’s faced Lajovic five times in his career and he’s won all five matches. Lajovic has won just two sets off of him. I expect Bautista Agut to win here.

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Novak Djokovic -3.0 (-130) -225 O 22.5 (-110)
Rafael Nadal +3.0 (EVEN) +180 U 22.5 (-110)

Odds taken Jan. 11.

The Djokovic-Nadal matchup is one that a lot of people have been waiting for at this event. They’re currently the top two players in the world and – for the most part – are expected to win the four grand slams in 2020.

Djokovic hasn’t been all that crisp here but he’s still showed better than Nadal. Djokovic needed two tiebreakers to beat out Kevin Anderson and South Africa, then also lost a set to Canada’s Dennis Shapovalov and Russia’s Daniil Medvedev. The three-setter with Medvedev is understandable but being challenged by the others isn’t a great look.

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As for Nadal, his first four matches were all breezes as he won in straight sets but then he shockingly lost to David Goffin of Belgium and then needed three sets against Australia’s Alex De Minaur. De Minaur is ranked No. 18 in the world but that combined with the loss to Goffin indicates Nadal might not be in his best form.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Serbia needed this one more than Spain, which might propel Djokovic to be a little more motivated in this one to get the win and force the tiebreak. Bet Djokovic here.

Djokovic/Troicki vs Nadal/Carreño Busta Odds

Team Moneyline
Djokovic / Troicki EVEN
Nadal / Carreño Busta -140

Odds taken Jan. 11.

What’s interesting to note is Spain has a bit of a ringer of sorts for doubles here. If the match will go to the doubles tiebreaker, they’ll bring in Carreño Busta, who has a decent track record in doubles. He once made it to the doubles finals at the U.S. Open, semis at the Australian Open and has three career doubles titles.

While he’s not a dominant doubles player, he’s at least had some success in this regard. As for Troicki, he has a 106-151 doubles record and other than the French Open, hasn’t been past the third round in a doubles grand slam match.

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The other note here is that Djokovic is not really a doubles guy. He’s played just one doubles match in this tournament as Serbia has been opting to use its other two players for the tiebreaker. As for Nadal, he’s 136-74 in doubles – the best mark of the four players participating. He also has 11 doubles titles overall.

That being the case, I like Bautista Agut to win his match, Djokovic to beat Nadal and Spain to beat Serbia in the doubles showdown.

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