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ATP Miami Open Men’s Singles Round of 64 Odds & Picks

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Mar 26, 2021 · 7:18 PM PDT

Miami Open
Roger Federer, of Switzerland, left, shakes hands with John Isner, right, after winning the the singles final of the Miami Open tennis tournament, Sunday, March 31, 2019, in Miami Gardens, Fla. Federer won 6-1, 6-4. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • The 16 men’s seeds in the top half of the draw see their first action at the Miami Open on Friday, beginning at 11:00 am EST
  • No. 1 seed (and top favorite) Daniil Medvedev is expected to breeze through his opener
  • See below for second-round odds, and three matches we think might buck the odds

Two of the top three favorites in the men’s draw are in the bottom half of the draw and only start their Miami Open campaigns Saturday.

But No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev, who also happens to be the biggest tournament favorite, takes the court in a match no one but opponent Yen Hsun-Lu’s family expects will be close.

ATP Miami Open Round of 64 Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
[1] Daniil Medvedev vs. Yen-Hsun Lu -10000 / +2200
[3] Alexander Zverev vs. Emil Ruusuvuori -560 / +410
[7] Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Lloyd Harris (RSA) -250 / +195
[8] David Goffin vs. James Duckworth (AUS) -670 / +475
[9] Grigor Dimitrov vs. Cameron Norrie -225 / +175
[11] Félix Auger-Aliassime vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert -205 / +163
[14] Karen Khachanov vs. Yannick Hanfmann -530 / +390
[16] Dusan Lavovic vs. [Q] Ernesto Escobedo -141 / +114
[18] John Isner vs. [Q] Mackenzie McDonald +106 / -130
[19] Dan Evans vs. Frances Tiafoe -137 / + 110
[21] Jannik Sinner vs. [WC] Hugo Gaston -560 / +400
[22] Taylor Fritz vs. Marcos Giron -210 / +165
[27] Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Mikael Ymer -175 / +138
[30] Reilly Opelka vs. Alexei Popyrin -152 / +123
[31] Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Ricardas Berankis -215 / +170
[32] Alexander Bublik vs. Laslo Djere -200 / +160

All odds taken March 26 from DraftKings

Brutal Conditions Will be the Wild Card

The conditions are going to be brutal in Miami Friday. And they may well be the wild card in the outcome of some of the matches.

It’s something to seriously bear in mind when making your picks.

It might be even more oppressive than Thursday when both the heat and humidity were high, and ice bags and ice towels were everywhere.

Young Brit Jack Draper, making his ATP Tour debut, fell over in a heap running for backhand facing set point against him in the first set against Mikhail Kukushkin. Overcome by the conditions, Draper had to retire.

John Isner vs Mackenzie McDonald Prediction

Of all the seeded players in action today, 35-year-old American John Isner is the only underdog.

And yet, Isner is the only one in the draw with any Miami Open success on his resumé. He won the tournament in 2018 – the biggest victory of his career – at the old site on Key Biscayne. The last time it was played in 2019, at the new Hard Rock Stadium venue, he made the final.

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Isner’s opponent, Mackenzie McDonald, is exactly a decade younger and exactly a foot shorter, at 5-10. The two are meeting for the first time.

Squaring Off Against Big Servers

McDonald has very little experience against the other massive servers. He has never played Kevin Anderson, although he did beat semi-retired Ivo Karlovic, 42, in the final round of qualifying earlier this week. And he has a Challenger win over Reilly Opelka, in three attempts.

McDonald is more of a grinder. Isner is a quick-strike player and will focus even more on that in the conditions.

“It’s good also to be back in Miami, a place where I’ve had very good experiences before. I wouldn’t say probably this is the best I’ve ever played, but hopefully I can get this tournament started and try to create some momentum for myself and see what I can do,” Isner said ahead of the match. “Physically I’m healthy. Mentally I feel pretty fresh.”

Best Bet: Isner (+106)

Reilly Opelka vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction

Like McDonald, Alexei Popyrin has very little experience against the big servers on tour.

But unlike McDonald, the 21-year-old Aussie is far down the list in rating the return game of ATP Tour players. He does, however, have a much bigger serve of his own.

Reilly Opelka is even lower down that return chart.

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Over the last 52 weeks on hard courts, Popyrin has won 67.9-percent of the tiebreaks he’s played.

Opelka, despite that massive serve and his 6-11 frame, has won just 46-percent of tiebreaks.

It may well come down to that.

Best Bet: Popyrin (+123)

Dan Evans vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction

The best comparison to Miami (courts and conditions-wise) in the four previous matches between Dan Evans and Frances Tiafoe is a first-round match at Delray Beach, Florida in 2019. Evans won it, but he had to come back from a set down to win it 7-5 in the third.

And Tiafoe has beaten him before.

The American, still only 23, went down to South America and played the clay-court swing instead of going to Europe on the more familiar hard courts. It could pay off.

Many of his recent matches have been squeaky-tight, decided in third-set tiebreaks one way or the other.

He’s slowly building something in 2021, and this is a winnable match for him in a place where he’s always done well.

Best Bet: Tiafoe (+110)

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