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Alex de Minaur vs Holger Rune Odds & Prediction – Cinch Championships Semifinals

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Jun 23, 2023 · 1:38 PM PDT

Alex de Minaur hitting a return shot
Jan 21, 2023; Melbourne, VICTORIA, Australia; Alex de Minaur from Australia during his third round match against Benjamin Bonzi from France on day six of the 2023 Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
  • Second-seeded Holger Rune is the -122 favorite over #7 seed Alex de Minaur in their ATP Cinch Championship semifinal match on Saturday, June 24
  • Rune would be rising to #5 in the ATP world rankings were he to win this tournament
  • The Dane has won two of three previous matches against Australian de Minaur. Read on for our de Minaur vs Rune picks

On paper, logic suggests the Alex de Minaur will be holding the edge over Holger Rune on a grass court.

Prior to this year, Rune was winless when playing on the surface (0-3). Meanwhile, de Minaur is 24-15 all-time on grass, including a title at Eastbourne in 2021.

So it’s advantage de Minaur, right? Maybe not. This year, playing on grass is no longer a road to ruin for Rune. He’s 3-0 coming into this match and hasn’t dropped a set.

Oddsmakers are setting Rune as the -122 favorite over de Minaur in this match in the de Minaur vs Rune odds. Rune has won two of three prior meetings over his Australian opponent.

Alex de Minaur vs Holger Rune Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Alex de Minaur (AUS -0.5 (-110) +104 O 23.5 (-108)
Holger Rune (DEN) +0.5 (-120) -122 U 23.5 (-126)

At +104, de Minaur is given an underdog betting line in the Cinch Championship odds. The spread is -0.5 in favor of the Dane. The over/under on the match total is set at 23.5 games. This match is slated for Saturday, June 24 at 8:00am EST.

Odds as of June 23 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to claim this FanDuel promo code to make your Rune vs de Minaur picks for the Cinch Championship.

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Rune Finding His Game On Grass

Even though Rune has yet to drop a set in this event, it would be incorrect to suggest that the Dane is playing dominant tennis on grass. While he’s winning, he’s being frequently forced to work hard for that outcome.

Against #6 see Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals, Rune was a 6-4, 7-5 winner in a match that took one hour and 54 minutes to complete. Struggling with an ailing wrist that required in-match treatment, Rune fell behind 1-4 in the second set prior to rallying and capturing five successive games.

While he doubled his Italian opponent in service aces (6-3), it was Rune’s second serve that spelled doom for Musetti. Rune wound up scoring points on 54% of his second serves, compared to just 29% for Musetti.

In the opening round against unseeded American Maxime Cressy, Rune required two tiebreakers to take the match 7-6(7-4), 76(7-3).

De Minaur Battles Past Mannarino

Following decisive straight-set wins over former world #1 Andy Murray (6-3, 6-1) and Diego Schwartzman (6-2- 6-2), world #18 de Minaur had his work cut out for him in his quarterfinal verdict over France’s Adrian Mannarino. they tangled in a three-set affair that saw the Aussie emerge with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 victory.

Rune vs de Minaur Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2023 ATP Mexico (SF) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 de Minaur
2022 ATP Basle (R32) Indoor Hard 6-2, 7-5 Rune
2022 ATP Stockholm (SF) Indoor Hard 4-6, 7-6(7-1), 7-5 Rune

There was little to choose from between the two players on the court. The Aussie doubled Mannarino in aces (4-2) and held slight edges in winning percentage on both first (67-60) and second service (60-58). He won four service breaks, while Mannarino earned three breaks.

De Minaur shares the ATP Tour lead with the most grass court semifinal appearances (four) over the past three years.

Rune vs de Minaur Head-to-Head

Holger Rune
Alex de Minaur
20 (April 29, 2003) Age 24 (Feb. 17, 1999)
Gentofte, Denmark Birthplace Sydney, Australia
6-2 Height 6-0
4 Career ATP Singles Titles 7
6 (May 22, 2023) Career-Best Ranking 15 (June 28, 2021)
6 Current Ranking 18
$14,177,809 Career Earnings $9,082,518
31-11 2023 Won/Loss Record 20-12
2 ATP Main Draw Head-to-Head Wins 1

Unlike Rune, de Minaur’s resume displays a history of past success on grass-court surfaces. The Australian player acknowledges that it’s his favorite surface to play and evidence supports that theory.

He won at Eastbourne in 2021, the same year that he previously reached the final four of this event. Last year, he got to the fourth round at Wimbledon.

Rune vs de Minaur Prediction

This will be the first meeting of the two players on grass but their third in a tournament semifinal. In the semifinals at the Mexican Open in late March, de Minaur upset Rune 3-6, 7-5, 6-2. The Danish player was hampered by persistent cramping in that match, the first time he’d seven lost to the Aussie.

Rune committed 57 unforced errors in that match, opening the door for his opponent. Interestingly, both of Rune’s wins over de Minaur were played indoors, while his only loss was an outdoor match.

Rune vs de Minaur Picks:

  • de Minaur to win (+104)
  • de Minaur 2-1 (+300)

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