Aryna Sabalenka vs Caroline Garcia Odds & Prediction – WTA Finals Championship Match
- No. 6 seed Caroline Garcia and No. 7 Aryna Sabalenka will meet in the final of the WTA Finals Champions Match Monday night
- Neither was among the favorites to win it before the event started
- The Sabalenka vs Garcia odds are nearly even; scroll down as we break down the matchup and made a prediction
If there was one thing that seemed fairly assured before the start of the WTA Finals, it’s that Iga Swiatek would be there on the last day.
Beyond that, it was a bit of a crapshoot even if you’d have given Guadalajara Open champion Jessica Pegula probably the best chance to come out of the other pool.
In the end, neither is there on Monday night, as the WTA season officially ends.
Sabalenka vs Garcia Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [7] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | -1.5 (+104) | -114 | O 22.5 (-104) |
| [6] Caroline Garcia (FRA) | +1.5 (-129) | -106 | U 22.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Nov 7 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the WTA Finals.
Instead, No. 6 seed Caroline Garcia and No. 7 seed Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the final on November 7, at 9 pm ET with Sabalenka as the short -114 favorite in the odds above.
The winner will end the season No. 4 in the world.
Sabalenka vs Garcia Head-to-Head
| 24 (May 5, 1998) | Age | 29 (Oct. 16, 1993) |
| Minsk, Belarus | Birthplace | Saint-German-en-Laye, France |
| 5-11 | Height | 5-10 |
| 10 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 10 |
| No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 4 (Sept. 10, 2018) |
| No. 7 | Current Ranking | No. 6 |
| $11,424,910 | Career Prize Money | $13, 494,141 |
| 33-21 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 44-20 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
Big Upset for Sabalenka Over Swiatek
In the good news for the competitiveness of women’s tennis, it turns out Iga Swiatek is mortal.
The 21-year-old, who has twice as many ranking points as the No. 2 player in the world, Ons Jabeur, didn’t have a great night Saturday as she faced the talented but mercurial Sabalenka in the second semifinal.
She got off to a tough start, recovered in the second set. And when the third set began you expected her to just run away with it.
Instead, the opposite happened; Sabalenka did the running away, winning 6-2, 2-6, 6-1.
The statistics aren’t especially pretty on either side. But the biggest was that Swiatek barely won half the points with her first serve, and double-faulted six times.
Garcia All Over Sakkari
If it felt that at any point, the 29-year-old Garcia would come back down to earth, she has proven that she’s developed some fine competitive mettle.
Not only did she come through a sudden-death qualifying match Saturday against Daria Kasatkina in a third-set tiebreak, she followed it up 24 hours later with a surprisingly routine win over Maria Sakkari.
Her first-serve percentage was a little low at 52.6 percent. But her effectiveness was impressive both on first serve and second serve.
And given she has won her last two meetings against finals opponent Sabalenka, she has to be pleased that she won’t have to face Swiatek in the final.
Sabalenka vs Garcia History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Cincinnati (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 | Garcia |
| 2018 | Zhuhai (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-4 | Garcia |
| 2018 | Beijing (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 5-7, 7-6 (3), 6-0 | Sabalenka |
| 2018 | Cincinnati (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 | Sabalenka |
2018 Meetings Pivotal for Both Garcia and Sabalenka
Their three meetings in 2018 came in a pivotal year for both.
Garcia, who was just a few months older than Sabalenka is now, had streaked through the Asian swing in 2017, was just reaching her career high of No. 4 around the time of their first three meetings.
She had all the pressure of defending all those points as they came around a year later. And she wasn’t entirely successful although she did win a small event in Tianjin, once she was eliminated from contention for the WTA finals.
At the same time, Sabalenka – just turned 20 – was making her breakthrough on the WTA, establishing herself as a fine young talent on the big come-up. She began 2018 ranked No. 73 and finished at No. 12.
Sabalenka vs Garcia Prediction
Both are coming off confidence-building wins – Sabalenka vs Kasatkina, and Garcia vs Swiatek.
Ideally, both will swing freely and go for it. Worst-case scenario, they’re both so tight this big final turns into a nerve-filled festival of errors and momentum swings.
More likely, one will be more nervous than the other. It’s just impossible to tell who that will be, which is why the odds are so close.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+135)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
