Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov Prediction & Picks

• Feliz Auger Aliassime is a -275 favorite over Karen Khachnov in Round 2 men’s singles action at the US Open
• Based on their history, expect a lengthy battle pushing the total over 37.5 games
• See my Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov prediction and picks, with the latest odds below

World No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime takes on No. 50 Karen Khachanov in the Round of 64 at the US Open Men’s Singles.

Auger-Aliassime enters as the heavy favorite at -245, while the gritty underdog is priced at +233 and looks to stage an early upset.

This matchup features Shelton as the heavy betting favorite and the the stronger overall profile but an opponent capable of extending sets and protecting serve.

The single most pressing matchup question is whether Khachanov’s historical edge trumps current ATP form, enough to challenge Auger-Aliassime’s top-five pedigree and frustrate the favorite on the Grand Slam stage.

Action gets underway at 11am ET from Louis Armstrong Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

Catch the action on ESPN in the United States or tune into TSN if you’re in Canada.

Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov Prediction and Picks

The head-to-head record is tied at 2-2. Khachanov won the most recent meeting at Halle, but Auger-Aliassime won the two encounters immediately before it. That history shows Khachanov can trouble the favorite, but it does not establish a decisive matchup edge heading into this hard-court best-of-five contest.

• Pick: Auger-Aliassime -4.5 Games (+108 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Game-Spread Prediction

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Kalshi

Auger-Aliassime -4.5 Games

48%

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I trust the Canadian to cover the 4.5-game spread at plus money. The matchup is supported by more than Auger-Aliassime’s No. 4 ranking: Tennis Abstract’s August 31 Elo update rates him at 1,973.3 overall and 1,937.7 on hard courts, compared with Khachanov at 1,790.8 overall and 1,741.6 on hard courts. Those gaps of 182.5 and 196.1 points, respectively, put Auger-Aliassime in a much stronger position than the official rankings alone suggest, particularly in a best-of-five match.

The 52-week comparison from Tennis Ratio adds a clear performance-based case for the spread: Auger-Aliassime averages 0.85 aces per game to Khachanov’s 0.58, wins 89.1% of his service games versus 85.1%, and has won 64.4% of his tiebreaks compared with 33.3% for Khachanov. His 1.394 dominance ratio and 1.742 match-efficiency mark also stand well above Khachanov’s 1.044 and 0.791. Khachanov’s better second-serve numbers keep the underdog dangerous, but the overall serve, tiebreak and point-quality advantages favor the Canadian.

That edge is also visible in the recent results. Auger-Aliassime opened with a 3-1 win over Hijikata and had hard-court wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Cincinnati before losing to Frances Tiafoe. Khachanov also opened with a hard-court win over Roman Andres Burruchaga, but his recent hard-court sample included a loss to Aleksandar Kovacevic in Cincinnati. Over a grueling best-of-five format, Auger-Aliassime’s sturdier serve and heavier groundstrokes should allow him to build a five-game margin.

• Pick: Auger-Aliassime -4.5 Games (+108 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

O/U Prediction

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Kalshi

Over 37.5 Games

57%

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I also lean over 37.5 games at -133. Khachanov has enough serving power and baseline strength to make the favorite work for every set, while the head-to-head series has produced several close contests and is tied 2-2. Even if Auger-Aliassime wins, a competitive four-set result would likely clear this number; a five-set match would provide even more room for the over. The risk is an efficient straight-set victory, but Khachanov’s ability to hold serve and force extended sets makes the over the preferred total angle.

Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov Odds

Odds as of Sept 3 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

The available odds clearly outline the match dynamics. Auger-Aliassime is a substantial -275 favorite, while Khachanov is priced at +220 to pull off the upset. The 4.5-game spread offers -120 odds on both ends of the betting spetrum.

The total is set at 37.5 games, with the over juiced to -125 and the under available at -110. That pricing suggests the market expects a competitive match, but bettors must weigh whether Khachanov can extend the contest enough to clear the total or whether Auger-Aliassime will advance in a more efficient victory.