Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Men’s Singles Final

• Carlo Alcaraz and Casper Ruud both make their Masters 1000 finals debut in Miami
• Alcaraz, still just 18, is the favorite over the higher-ranked Ruud, 23
• Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction

After 10 days of upsets, retirements and injuries, the last two standing at the Miami Open are No. 6 seed Casper Ruud of Norway and No. 14 seed Carlos Alcaraz of Spain.

Alcaraz vs Ruud Odds

Odds as of April 2 at Caesars Sportsbook

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Ruud With the Tougher Road to the Final

As it turns out, the top two seeds and top two favorites in this year’s Miami Open were not 100 per cent.

For No. 2 Alexander Zverev, it was a neck issue and also a case of being “under the weather”. To his credit, he fought through to the end in a three-set loss to Ruud in the quarterfinals.

For No. 1 Daniil Medvedev, beaten by Hubert Hurkacz in the quarters, it turned out to be something more than that.

Hi everyone. The last months I have been playing with a small hernia. Together with my team I have decided to have a small procedure done to fix the problem. I will likely be out for the next 1 – 2 months and will work hard to be back on court soon. Thanks for all the support.

— Daniil Medvedev (@DaniilMedwed) April 2, 2022

Ruud ended up with the easier road to the final. The average ranking of his opponents was 48. His semifinal opponent, unseeded Francisco Cerundolo (ranked No. 103) took care of four seeded players for him: Sinner, Opelka, Monfils and Tiafoe. Still, he did face No. 4 Zverev and no. 12 Cameron Norrie

The average ranking of Alcaraz’s victims was 36; the only top-20 player he faced was Hurkacz at No. 10.

That semifinal, won in two tiebreaks, hinged on very little. But it always felt like Hurkacz was fighting an uphill battle with no margin for error.

Alcaraz vs Ruud Head-to-Head

Alcaraz’s level has been so high, it’s hard to imagine that he’s not the player of destiny in this tournament.

Youngest #ATPMasters1000 Finalists
1 Michael Chang, 18y157d, at 1990 @NBOToronto (W)
2 @RafaelNadal, 18y304d, at 2005 @MiamiOpen (L)
3 Nadal, 18y318d, at 2005 @RolexMCMasters (W)
4 @RichardGasquet1, 18y331d, at 2005 @HamburgOpen (L)
5 @AlcarazCarlos03, 18y333d, at 2022 #MiamiOpen

— ATP Media Info (@ATPMediaInfo) April 2, 2022

He’s the fifth-youngest finalist ever at a Masters 1000 tournament, the second-youngest (behind countryman Rafael Nadal) at the Miami Open.

Notably, Nadal has never won in Miami, despite making five finals. In fact, Alcaraz’s countrymen are 0-8 overall in Miami finals.

Alcaraz with the 1-0 Head-to-Head Advantage

Ruud and Alcaraz have only met once. And it was on clay. At the moment, despite Alcaraz’s origins, it remains Ruud’s surface of choice while Alcaraz has had more experience on the hard courts.

Until he won in Rio in February, the Spaniard was a relatively modest 13-7 on the dirt – all but two of those matches in the last year.

Ruud was barely over 50 per cent on hard courts coming into Miami, while he had won 72 per cent of his matches on clay – including six of his seven career titles.

And you could see it in his match against another clay-court lover, Cerundolo, in the semifinals.

Ruud regressed somewhat to his clay-court habits. He stayed back in the court and lost a bit of the aggressiveness that got him to the final weekend.

it worked just fine, because Cerundolo isn’t as good a player.

But he’ll have to go back to being proactive again when he faces Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Match History

Alcaraz will have huge crowd support against Ruud, just the way he did against Hurkacz even if the Latin-flavoured Miami crowd was respectful of the reigning champion.

And even though Ruud has already won seven titles, they have all been small ones, before much smaller crowds and without his opponent being the overwhelming crowd favorite.

But the biggest thing he’s going to have to deal with is, quite simply, Alcaraz’s tennis.

Carlos Alcaraz is a human highlight reel.

😳 @alcarazcarlos03 #MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/oiTLyVSnGE

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 1, 2022

The teenager has an insane number of ways in which he can win points: with a big serve, or a laser forehand, or a deftly-played drop shot. He can serve and volley when he wants to. Or he can lob over Ruud’s head if he draws the Norwegian in. And he can win points with his defence. And his consistency allows him to win long rallies, as well.

Ruud’s comfort zone simply won’t be enough to fend him off.

Best Bet: Alcaraz in two sets (+101)