Francisco Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Semifinals
- Unseeded Francisco Cerundolo and No. 6 seed Casper Ruud are a surprise semifinal at the Miami Open
- Cerundolo, ranked No. 103 coming in, has had a run of great fortune with injured opponents
- Ruud is the obvious favorite; we break down the matchup and look for value
The bottom half of the Miami Open draw was seeded to have No. 2 Alexander Zverev square off against No. 4 Matteo Berrettini or No. 5 Andrey Rublev in the semifinals.
And then … things happened.
Instead, it’s No. 6 seed Casper Ruud against the unseeded Francisco Cerundolo, with Daniil Medvedev still the overwhelming favorite to win it all. The winner will face whoever advances from the Hurkacz vs Alcaraz match.
Cerundolo vs Ruud Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) | +4.5 (+120) | +420 | O 20.5 (-125) |
| [6] Casper Ruud (NOR) | -4.5 (-150) | -600 | U 20.5 (-105) |
Odds as of March 31 at Caesars Sportsbook
Rublev went out early against the dangerous Nick Kyrgios.
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Berrettini withdrew very, very late with a hand injury he ended up having minor surgery on a few days ago. The lucky loser, Kevin Anderson, who lives only an hour away, found out at the last minute he was in. And while he won his opener, Anderson ended up being beaten in the second round by Cerundolo’s younger brother Juan Manuel.
And then, the retirements.
You Have to Be Lucky to Be Good
It takes nothing away from Cerundolo’s dream run to the semifinals of a Masters 1000 to point out that he’s had some significantly lucky breaks along the way.
Get well soon, @janniksin
Sinner is forced to retire 1-4 down to Cerundolo – sending @FranCerundolo through to the #MiamiOpen semi-finals! pic.twitter.com/tqxWkXGctY
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 30, 2022
In most of his matches, there have been extenuating circumstances that helped him get through players ranked much higher than he is.
Seriously, you have to hope he went out to buy some Powerball tickets.
Cerundolo was beaten in the first round of qualifying at Indian Wells by teenaged wild card Jerry Shang. He had never won an ATP Tour-level main-draw match on hard courts before this week.
Cerundolo’s Miami Open Opponents
| Player | Score | Issues |
|---|---|---|
| [9] Jannik Sinner (QF) | 4-1 retd | Sinner retired with foot blisters after just five games |
| [28] Frances Tiafoe (R16) | 6-7 (2), 7-6 (3), 6-2 | Major back woes for Tiafoe, who did finish the match |
| [22] Gaël Monfils (R32) | 6-2, 6-3 | Off-court concerns had Monfils playing like his plane was waiting |
| [16] Reilly Opelka | 6-1, 3-1 retd | Right shoulder issue and retirement |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 | Fair-and-square first career hard-court ATP victory |
In the meanwhile, Ruud has found the slowish courts in Miami very much to his liking.
Ruud Rolls to Semifinals
The 23-year-old from Norway faced one of the last direct entries into the draw, Henri Laaksonen. Then he faced the always dangerous Alexander Bublik, who wasn’t dangerous on the day.
Then he impressed in getting through the tough out that is Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-4.
In the quarterfinals, he faced a diminished Zverev, who has had some tape on the back of his neck for a few days but also reportedly had been under the weather for a few days.
Still, Zverev played and competed hard. Ruud was just too solid for him in a 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 victory.
Cerundolo vs Ruud Head-to-Head
| 23 (Aug. 13, 1998) | Age | 23 (Dec. 22, 1998) |
| Buenos Aires, Argentina | Birthplace | Oslo, Norway |
| 6-1 | Height | 6-0 |
| 0 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 7 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 0 |
| No. 76 (Feb. 21, 2022) | Career High Ranking | No. 8 (Oct. 25, 2021) |
| No. 103 | Current Ranking | No. 8 |
| $535,751 | Career Prize Money | $5,204,219 |
| 10-4 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 12-3 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
It stands to reason, of course, that Ruud is a massive favorite in this match.
Can Confidence Help Cerundolo Soar?
There are two ways of looking at this. The first is that Cerundolo’s career-changing run in Miami will give him wings, make him believe he can beat even a top-10 player in good form.
Casper's forehand has been straight FLAMES tonight 🔥@CasperRuud98 #MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/bhgUIbgNF7
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 31, 2022
The more logical take is that Ruud, who to this point has won only smaller tournaments, and mostly on his preferred clay, sees an inexperienced, unseeded player in the way of his making a Masters 1000 final.
You couldn’t draw up a more ideal scenario. And Ruud isn’t likely to waste that opportunity.
'It's everything I've dreamed of… This is gonna change everything for me'
Going into Miami with *zero* wins on hard courts, @FranCerundolo is now a Masters 1000 semi-finalist 🤯#MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/mUdup8XShT
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 30, 2022
Ruud has taken the forehand he mashes in practice (but too often tempers in matches) and brought it to the slow hard court, with great effect.
We’re looking at a 6-3 first set for Ruud (+300), and under 20.5 games (-105).
Ruud also should win in straight sets (-210).
As surprising as Cerundolo’s run has been so far, it hasn’t been because he’s played good enough tennis to shock the world and win the tournament.
Best Bet: Ruud and 4.5 games (-150)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
