Hubert Hurkacz vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Semifinals

• Defending champion Hubert Hurkacz takes on teenager Carlos Alcaraz in the Miami Open semifinals
• The match is scheduled for Friday, April 1 at 7 pm ET, the second of the two semifinals
• Alcaraz is the favorite; read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction

At age 18, Carlos Alcaraz might not win the Miami Open this year.

But he will win plenty of them in his career. And judging by the reaction to his youthful enthusiasm and crowd-pleasing play, he’ll get extra-special support in a part of the world where the Spanish-speaking players (of any origin) get plenty of love.

Hurkacz vs Alcaraz Odds

Odds as of April1 at Caesars Sportsbook

But to get to his first Masters 1000 final, where he is a favorite on the moneyline and spread to do so, Alcaraz will have to upend the defending champion.

And Hubert Hurkacz is rounding into form at just the right time.

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Hurkacz Beats Ailing Medvedev

The list of players who withdrew, retired, or were under the weather during the Miami Open on both the men’s and women’s side is extensive this year.

Daniil Medvedev, on what the conditions at the Miami Open took out of him today in a possible candidate for quote of the year, decade, century and all-time:

“Every muscle just went ‘cramp, cramp, cramp, cramp.' I was like a fish on the sofa."

— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) March 31, 2022

So credit to Daniil Medvedev for sticking it out during his 7-6 (7), 6-3 quarterfinal loss to Hurkacz Thursday.

It was clear he was not feeling great. But he didn’t pull the ripcord.

Hurkacz vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head

Later on, Alcaraz and Miomir Kecmanovic of Serbia put on a show.

Teen Ekes One Out vs Kecmanovic

The fans at the Miami Open were clearly on the Spaniard Alcaraz’s side.

But that didn’t prevent them from appreciating what the Serbian Kecmanovic brought to the table in what inarguably was the match of the tournament so far.

That was true in terms of the crowd atmosphere, the drama and the level of tennis.

After running Alcaraz all over the court during the deciding tiebreak, Kecmanovic had a forehand into an open court that would have given him a 4-1 lead.

Except … he missed it.

And from there, given a ninth life despite his obvious nerves, the 18-year-old Alcaraz took advantage of it like the champion he appears destined to become.

It wasn’t the longest match (two hours, 23 minutes), but it was emotionally and physically draining in increasingly humid conditions.

There were just four break points throughout; Alcaraz went 1-for-2; Kecmanovic went 0-for-2. And the teen has less than 24 hours to recover from it all and go at it again.

First Meeting, in a Masters 1000 semifinal

The kid is the favorite against the defending champion, which isn’t a huge surprise.

Even before the tournament, Alcaraz was right behind Medvedev and Alexander Zverev on the favorites list.

He’s already among the favorites in the French Open odds this spring, even though he never played a five-set match until Wimbledon last summer. (He’s played three and won three – although playing two back-to-back finished him off at last year’s US Open).

Hurkacz had a less-draining match, and he finished it much earlier. He did have to return to the court in the late afternoon to play doubles.

Bromance 🥰@HubertHurkacz & @JohnIsner defeat Kokkinakis/Kyrgios 6-4 6-3 to reach the Miami doubles final!#MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/VFhIzWbZO3

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 31, 2022

The question will be what the 25-year-old from Poland has to derail the phenom, who had a 75-percent first-serve rate against Kecmanovic.

Alcaraz will have to do better on second-serve returns; Kecmanovic won 65-percent of his second-serve points.

Both comeback scenarios are possibilities.

Hurkacz could lose the first set and still win (+800) if Alcaraz runs out of steam. And Alcaraz could do it if he gets off to a nervous start but rights the ship, and Hurkacz gets tight (+550).

The first scenario is the more likely one.

And an additional element will come into play for Friday’s semifinals that hasn’t been an issue so far in Miami: weather.

Showers are expected (for the first time in the fortnight) in the late afternoon and early evening. That could delay things. And it could give both players too much time to think.

But it feels like Alcaraz’s tournament to advance and play the final. Get our Cerundolo vs Ruud pick on the other side of the draw here.

Best Bet: Alcaraz in Two Sets (+115)