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Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Odds & Prediction – Erste Bank Open Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Oct 27, 2022 · 2:12 PM PDT

Daniil Medvedev
Sept 4, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Daniil Medvedev tries to get the crowd going against Nick Kyrgios of Australia on day seven of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • Daniil Medvedev brings a 3-0 head-to-head into his quarterfinal with Jannik Sinner at the Erste Bank Open
  • Medvedev is the favorite – not an overwhelming one, though – to win the match, which will take place Friday, October 28
  • Scroll down as we analyze their current form and make a prediction on the Medvedev vs Sinner odds

Neither Daniil Medvedev nor Jannik Sinner is in their best form of the season.

That said, they’re still premier players.

Medvedev vs Sinner Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) -2.5 (-129) -215 O 22.5 (-122)
[6] Jannik Sinner (ITA) +2.5 (+102) +170 U 22.5 (-105)

Odds as of Oct. 27 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Erste Bank Open.

The conundrum that Sinner needs to solve, as he faces No. 1 Erste Bank Open seed Medvedev in Friday’s quarterfinals, is how to beat the former No. 1-ranked player in the world on a faster indoor court.

As it happens, the two have met three times before. All three (despite the relative dearth of indoor tournaments) have come indoors.

And Medvedev has won all three.



New Dad Medvedev Prepping for Turin

Medvedev has won just one tournament this year – a very small one, the week before the Canadian Masters.

By his standards, it hasn’t been a great year. It didn’t help that he had a sports hernia in the spring. And that he didn’t deal with the pressure of coming into the US Open as defending champion particularly well.

It was his first major title defense, and he went down in the round of 16 to the in-form Nick Kyrgios.

He also lost to 37-year-old Stan Wawrinka in his opener in Metz. And, after rolling through three solid opponents in Astana, he had the match in his grasp against Novak Djokovic in the semifinals – only to suddenly retire after losing the second set in a close tiebreak.

The reason was a leg injury; there hadn’t been much evidence of it, to be honest although that was probably some good acting on his part; he later explained he felt a pop in his adductor early in that second-set tiebreak.

It was only the second tournament this season in which both Djokovic and Medvedev competed.

Less than a week later, Medvedev became a father for the first time.

Medvedev vs Sinner Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev
Jannik Sinner
26 (Feb. 11, 1996) Age 21 (Aug. 16, 2001)
Moscow, Russia Birthplace San Candido, Italy
6-6 Height 6-2
14 Career ATP Singles Titles 6
No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 9 (Nov. 1, 2021)
No. 4 Current Ranking No. 12
$24,998,477 Career Prize Money $6,357,165
42-15 2022 Won/Loss Record 47-14
3 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Sinner Also With One Title

Sinner, still just 20, also has just one minor title in 2022. He won the ATP 250 in Umag, right after Wimbledon, on clay with a win over Carlos Alcaraz in the final.

Medvedev vs Sinner Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-0, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (8) Medvedev
2021 Marseille (QF) Indoor Hard 6-2, 6-4 Medvedev
2020 Marseille (R16) Indoor Hard 1-6, 6-1, 6-2 Medvedev

The young Italian has been more or less a regular in the quarterfinals of Masters 1000s, and the fourth round at Grand Slam tournaments this year.

In other words, he’s most often “making his seeding”. But not much more than that.

There has been an on-and-off knee issue as well.

Another adjustment has been losing career-long coach Riccardo Piatti (and his entire team, basically, as Piatti is a package deal) and adjusting to a new voice in Darren Cahill (who, notably, does not speak Italian. It seems like a minor thing, but a player will always absorb instruction better in their native language).

Medvedev vs Sinner Prediction

Both Medvedev and Sinner have had good draws in Vienna.

Medvedev defeated Nikoloz Basilashvili (fresh from a domestic abuse court case in his native Georgia in which he was judged “not guilty”) and Dominic Thiem, on fumes after a marathon win over Tommy Paul.

Sinner drew a couple of players more noted for their clay-court prowess in Cristian Garin and Francisco Cerundolo.

This clash will be a few levels up for both.

But after a lull this year, you would fully expect that Medvedev is gearing up for a strong finish – including at the ATP Finals next month, where he is very likely to qualify.

The dynamic between the two on an indoor hard court will not have changed – unless Sinner changes something, which will involve being much more aggressive and taking advantage of Medvedev’s deep court positioning.

But with the winner playing either Grigor Dimitrov or Marcos Giron for a spot in the final, it’s a tasty path.

We’re calling for this to be far more competitive than many think.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+133)



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