- Daniil Medvedev brings a 3-0 head-to-head into his quarterfinal with Jannik Sinner at the Erste Bank Open
- Medvedev is the favorite – not an overwhelming one, though – to win the match, which will take place Friday, October 28
- Scroll down as we analyze their current form and make a prediction on the Medvedev vs Sinner odds
Neither Daniil Medvedev nor Jannik Sinner is in their best form of the season.
That said, they’re still premier players.
Medvedev vs Sinner Odds
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-2.5 (-129)||-215||O 22.5 (-122)|
| Jannik Sinner (ITA)||+2.5 (+102)||+170||U 22.5 (-105)|
The conundrum that Sinner needs to solve, as he faces No. 1 Erste Bank Open seed Medvedev in Friday’s quarterfinals, is how to beat the former No. 1-ranked player in the world on a faster indoor court.
As it happens, the two have met three times before. All three (despite the relative dearth of indoor tournaments) have come indoors.
And Medvedev has won all three.
New Dad Medvedev Prepping for Turin
Medvedev has won just one tournament this year – a very small one, the week before the Canadian Masters.
By his standards, it hasn’t been a great year. It didn’t help that he had a sports hernia in the spring. And that he didn’t deal with the pressure of coming into the US Open as defending champion particularly well.
It was his first major title defense, and he went down in the round of 16 to the in-form Nick Kyrgios.
He also lost to 37-year-old Stan Wawrinka in his opener in Metz. And, after rolling through three solid opponents in Astana, he had the match in his grasp against Novak Djokovic in the semifinals – only to suddenly retire after losing the second set in a close tiebreak.
🇷🇸 @DjokerNole is into the final in Astana after Daniil Medvedev retired from their semifinal match due to a leg injury.
Djokovic had just won the second set to tie it at a set apiece when Medvedev stopped.
"I really hope that his injury is nothing too serious," Djokovic said.
— TENNIS (@Tennis) October 8, 2022
The reason was a leg injury; there hadn’t been much evidence of it, to be honest although that was probably some good acting on his part; he later explained he felt a pop in his adductor early in that second-set tiebreak.
It was only the second tournament this season in which both Djokovic and Medvedev competed.
Medvedev 💬 about being a father, to @atptour : "Lot of emotions, that I thought I wasn't able to feel at this calibre. Because I'm a little bit of a cold person in life. Now I'm like 'I'm actualy sensitive'. About tennis, nothing changed. I'm a competitor, I still want to win." pic.twitter.com/qNikEi6SDb
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) October 26, 2022
Less than a week later, Medvedev became a father for the first time.
Medvedev vs Sinner Head-to-Head
|26 (Feb. 11, 1996)||Age||21 (Aug. 16, 2001)|
|Moscow, Russia||Birthplace||San Candido, Italy|
|14||Career ATP Singles Titles||6|
|No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 9 (Nov. 1, 2021)|
|No. 4||Current Ranking||No. 12|
|$24,998,477||Career Prize Money||$6,357,165|
|42-15||2022 Won/Loss Record||47-14|
Sinner Also With One Title
Sinner, still just 20, also has just one minor title in 2022. He won the ATP 250 in Umag, right after Wimbledon, on clay with a win over Carlos Alcaraz in the final.
Medvedev vs Sinner Match History
|2021||ATP Finals (RR)||Indoor Hard||6-0, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (8)||Medvedev|
|2021||Marseille (QF)||Indoor Hard||6-2, 6-4||Medvedev|
|2020||Marseille (R16)||Indoor Hard||1-6, 6-1, 6-2||Medvedev|
The young Italian has been more or less a regular in the quarterfinals of Masters 1000s, and the fourth round at Grand Slam tournaments this year.
In other words, he’s most often “making his seeding”. But not much more than that.
— Mario Boccardi (@marioboc17) February 16, 2022
There has been an on-and-off knee issue as well.
Another adjustment has been losing career-long coach Riccardo Piatti (and his entire team, basically, as Piatti is a package deal) and adjusting to a new voice in Darren Cahill (who, notably, does not speak Italian. It seems like a minor thing, but a player will always absorb instruction better in their native language).
Medvedev vs Sinner Prediction
Both Medvedev and Sinner have had good draws in Vienna.
Medvedev defeated Nikoloz Basilashvili (fresh from a domestic abuse court case in his native Georgia in which he was judged “not guilty”) and Dominic Thiem, on fumes after a marathon win over Tommy Paul.
Sinner drew a couple of players more noted for their clay-court prowess in Cristian Garin and Francisco Cerundolo.
This clash will be a few levels up for both.
But after a lull this year, you would fully expect that Medvedev is gearing up for a strong finish – including at the ATP Finals next month, where he is very likely to qualify.
The dynamic between the two on an indoor hard court will not have changed – unless Sinner changes something, which will involve being much more aggressive and taking advantage of Medvedev’s deep court positioning.
But with the winner playing either Grigor Dimitrov or Marcos Giron for a spot in the final, it’s a tasty path.
We’re calling for this to be far more competitive than many think.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+133)