- Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic were the top two favorites coming into the Australian Open
- It’s unlikely Tsitsipas, who is looking for his first major final, will change the course of destiny
- We break down the odds and see where Tsitsipas can create some value
Coming back from two sets to none down to beat Rafael Nadal is something only one other player has ever done in Nadal’s Grand Slam career.
The first was Fabio Fognini at the 2015 US Open.
The second was Stefanos Tsitsipas Wednesday night at the Australian Open.
But the great victory will hurt his chances against Medvedev in the semifinals Friday.
Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-3.5 (-122)||-235||O 40.5 (-103)|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)||+3.5 (+100)||+190||U 40.5 (+122)|
Odds taken Feb. 18 at DraftKings
Tsitsipas does not have a good head-to-head history against Medvedev. At 1-5, it’s nearly identical to the Greek star’s record against Nadal.
Completely different matchup, but the same result.
While their matches have been close for the most part, the older Russian seems to have a grip on the rivalry so far.
A 19-match Unbeaten Streak for Medvedev
Medvedev has not lost a tennis match since Kevin Anderson defeated him in the quarterfinals in Vienna in late October 2020.
That was nearly four months ago.
He went to the Paris Masters from Vienna – and won that. Then he went undefeated through the ATP Finals, 5-0 on his way to the title.
Then he won all four of his matches to start the 2021 season in the ATP Cup.
There were few easy passes in the lot. Of those 19 victories, 10 came against top-10 players.
Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Head-to-Head
|25 (Feb. 11, 1996)||Age||22 (Aug. 12, 1998)|
|Moscow, Russia||Birthplace||Athens, Greece|
|9||Career ATP Singles Titles||5|
|No. 4 (Sept. 9, 2019)||Career High Ranking||No. 5 (Aug. 5, 2019)|
|No. 4||Current Ranking||No. 6|
|$14,707,309||Career Prize Money||$12,725,057|
Notably, Medvedev will already be up to a career-high No. 3 after the Australian Open.
If he beats Tsitsipas, he’ll be just 135 points behind Nadal for the No. 2 spot. If he wins the tournament, he’ll leap over Nadal and be the clear No. 2.
Epic Victory, Short Turnaround
The last time Tsitsipas and Nadal met in Australia, in 2019, Tsitsipas got just six games.
So this was a momentous victory.
It also could be costly.
The mental exhaustion is one thing. The heavy, humid conditions that ultimately might have been his friend in defeating his older rival also drained the tank significantly.
Tsitsipas has had less than 48 hours to recover from the biggest victory of his career.
And it’ll be hot and humid again Friday night.
Medvedev and Tsitsipas: Not Besties
We should also mention that as close as most of the Tsitsipas-Medvedev encounters have been, it’s tough to top their first-ever meeting.
That came in the first round of the Miami Masters in 2018.
Medvedev came back and won it.
But he still had things to say.
Medvedev often has … things to say.
Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: Match History
|2019 ATP Finals||RR||7-6 (5), 6-4||Tsitsipas|
|2019 Masters Shanghai||SF||7-6 (5), 7-5||Medvedev|
|2019 Masters Monte Carlo||R16||6-2, 1-6, 6-4||Medvedev|
|2018 Basel||QF||6-4, 3-6, 6-3||Medvedev|
|2018 US Open||R64||6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3||Medvedev|
|2018 Masters Miami||R128||2-6, 6-4, 6-2||Medvedev|
Both Feeling the Effects of the Heat
Opponent Andrey Rublev cramped at the end of his straight-sets loss to Medvedev in the quarterfinals.
But Medvedev was cramping, too.
While the television crew waited for him to come do his on-court post-match interview, he had the trainer come out and massage his left leg.
Tsitsipas got a walkover in the fourth round when No. 10 Matteo Berrettini pulled out because of an abdominal injury before their fourth-round match.
But he wasted that time savings in the next round; the win over Nadal took more than four hours.
Still, the win shortened Tsitsipas’s odds to win the whole tournament from +800 to +438.
Meanwhile, Medvedev is the hottest player on the men’s side. And he’s almost impossible to go through or around. Tsitsipas likely won’t have enough gas left in the tank to stay with him.
Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Best Bet
The Russian is at +275 to win in four sets. And he’s +475 to win in five sets. If it does go the distance, the Russian is far more likely to win. Tsitsipas won’t have back-to-back miracles in him.
Over 27.5 aces (+110) looks extremely likely.
Best Bet: Medvedev in four sets (+275)
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