Dimitrov vs Nadal Odds & Pick: Mexican Open Semifinals
- Rafael Nadal the odds-on -800 favorite to defeat Grigor Dimitrov in their ATP Mexican Open semifinal on Friday
- The world’s #2 player is 12-1 all-time against Dimitrov. Is this outcome a foregone conclusion?
- All the odds, picks and best bets are analyzed in the story below
Rafael Nadal is kryptonite to many players on the ATP Tour. Grigor Dimitrov is one of them.
Dimitrov has to be feeling good about his play at the Mexican Open. The 2014 champion in the event, he’s 11-2 lifetime in this tournament. He’s through to the semifinals there for the second time in his career.
Too bad for him that he’ll look across the net when he takes the court for Friday’s semifinal match and see Nadal.
Nadal is a two-time winner of the Mexican Open. He’s also 12-1 lifetime head-to-head against Dimitrov.
No wonder the Spanish star is the overwhelming -800 chalk to win this match.
Rafael Nadal vs Grigor Dimitrov Mexican Open Semifinal Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | -800 | -5 (-105) | Over 20.5 (-120) |
| Grigor Dimitrov | +525 | +5 (-125) | Under 20.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Feb. 28
Dimitrov and Nadal are slated to begin their match at 11:05 pm EST on Friday.
Nadal Just Keeps Rolling
Nadal is the #1 seed and was the Mexican Open +150 favorite in the opening line for this tournament. He hasn’t disappointed.
Through three rounds of play, he’s yet to drop a set. In fact, Nadal has lost just 15 games through the event. Only Miomir Kecmanović, who forced Nadal to 7-5 in the second set of their Round of 16 match, has even pushed the Spanish star.
Nadal cruised through his quarterfinal match against South Korea’s Soonwoo Kim, easily taking a 6-2, 6-1 verdict in just 91 minutes. The powerful baseline game of the world’s second-ranked player looks to be in top form.
The Spaniard smacked 11 winners against just four unforced errors during the first set. Kwon actually put up more of a fight in the second set, even though the final outcome wouldn’t indicate that. The South Korean held seven game points during the first three games but couldn’t finish and found himself down 3-0 when all was said and done.
Nadal saved all eight break points he faced during the match.
Rafa Loves Mexico
Nadal owns a pair of Mexican Open titles. He beat Alberto Montanes 6-0, 6-1 in the 2005 final. Eight years later, Nadal toppled David Ferrer 6-0, 6-2 for his second tournament win.
The 19-time Grand Slam champion is 13-2 all-time in the Mexican Open. He lost 6-1, 6-2 to Sam Querrey in the 2017 final. Last year, top-seeded Nadal was upset 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-7(6) by eventual champion Nick Krygios of Australia in second-round play.
Both of Nadal’s Mexican Open losses have come against the player who won the tournament that year.
Dimitrov Also Has Mexican History
Dimitrov downed Kevin Anderson 7–6(1), 3–6, 7–6(5) to win his 2014 Mexican Open title. The #7 seed this year, the Bulgarian downed third-seeded Stan Wawrinka in straight sets 6-4, 6-4 in their quarterfinal match.
Grigor Dimitrov is in such a goooood shape in Acapulco
(Video @tennistv) pic.twitter.com/E4B9xHkqeM
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) February 28, 2020
The one hour, 25-minute match was a much different affair than Dimitrov’s marathon Round of 16 match against Adrian Mannarino. He won that one 6-7(8), 6-2, 7-6(2).
Not only did Dimitrov rally from a set down against Mannarino, he staved off a pair of match points at 4-5 in the third set. Dimitrov blew a 4-1 lead in that set.
The Best Bet
Who’s going to bet against Nadal? He’s won five straight matches against Dimitrov. The Bulgarian’s lone career victory against Nadal came in 2016 in the quarterfinals at Beijing, a 6-2, 6-4 verdict. It should be noted that Dimitrov’s previous win over Wawrinka also came in 2016.
However, the last two meetings between Nadal and Dimitrov haven’t been close. Nadal posted identical 6-4, 6-1 wins over the world #22 at Monte Carlo in 2018 and 2019.
Traditionally, Nadal has exploited Dimtrov’s weak backhand to gain the edge over him. He’s 4-0 against Dimitrov in previous tournament semifinal meetings.
Nadal vs Dimitrov Stats
| 2 | World Ranking | 22 |
| 2 | Mexican Open Titles | 1 |
| 84 | ATP Titles | 8 |
| 12-1 | Head-to-Head | 1-12 |
| 11-3 | 2020 Record | 7-4 |
| 86.0 | Service Games Won | 83.0 |
| 33.0 | Return Games Won | 21.0 |
His Mexican Open success will do wonders for the confidence of the 28-year-old Dimitrov. He opened the season with a middling 4-4 mark, including a loss in the Round of 64 at the Australian Open.
But his bounce-back performance won’t feature a bouncing of Nadal. Take Nadal in straight sets.
The best bet here is the under on total games in the match.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-110).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
