French Open Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for June 1 – Tiafoe vs Arnaldi, Berrettini vs Cerundolo & More
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- I’m targeting Tiafoe’s 53¢ price against Arnaldi
- Value lies in the Felix Auger-Aliassime -3.5 game spread
- See my top three French Open picks for men’s singles on Monday, June 1
The round of 16 in the French Open men’s draw concludes on Monday with a quartet of matches. The slate kicks off at 5:00 am ET with Flavio Cobolli squaring off against Zachary Svajda, before concluding at 9:30 am ET with Felix Auger-Aliassime battling Alejandro Tabilo. In between, Frances Tiafoe faces Matteo Arnaldi in a near-coin flip, while Matteo Berrettini meets giant killer Juan Manuel Cerundolo as a modest favorite.
The table below sets out my top three French Open picks for Monday’s slate. Under the table, find my rationale for each pick. The final section sets out the full moneyline, spread, and total odds for all four matches.
French Open Picks & Predictions Today (June 1)
“Best Odds” as of 2:31 pm ET, May 31. Claim SBD’s Kalshi bonus code before making your French Open predictions.
Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Pick: Tiafoe Moneyline (-113) at Kalshi
I am taking Frances Tiafoe on the moneyline at 53¢ on Kalshi, which is equal to modest -113 odds. The ranking disparity here is massive – Tiafoe sits at #22 in the ATP rankings with 1,905 points, while Arnaldi has plummeted to #104 with just 586 points. Their head-to-head is split 1-1, with Arnaldi taking their most recent meeting at the 2025 Madrid Masters on clay. Tiafoe won their only previous Grand Slam encounter, coming from two sets down at Wimbledon in 2024.
The tournament data tells an intriguing story. Tiafoe has been battle-tested through three grueling rounds – a four-set win over Eliot Spizzirri, a five-set thriller against Hubert Hurkacz, and a remarkable comeback from two sets down against Jaime Faria in the third round. Across 14 sets of tennis, Tiafoe has converted 16 of 32 breakpoints (50%) and posted an elite first-serve win percentage (88%, 83%, 78%).
Arnaldi’s form at this tournament has been solid. He dispatched #29 Griekspoor in four sets with solid serving (66% first serve, 78% win rate on first serve, just two double faults) and survived a five-set battle against Raphael Collignon, winning the final-set tiebreak 10-4. His low double-fault rate (2 and 5 across his last two rounds) and consistent first-serve percentage (66%, 62%) contrast with Tiafoe’s more volatile first-serve numbers. But I expect Tiafoe to be in significantly better physical condition on Monday.
While Tiafoe has played 14 sets, he has repeatedly demonstrated the capacity to compete at his best in the later stages of matches. He has overhauled his conditioning and has become one of the fittest players on tour, which is huge with the Parisian heat wave sapping energy. .
At 53¢ (implied probability 53%), Tiafoe’s superior break-point conversion, proven best-of-five resilience, and dominant receiving game (43, 60, 60 receiving points won across his three matches) make him the right side of this number.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Pick: Auger-Aliassime -3.5 Games (+104) at Kalshi
I am backing Felix Auger-Aliassime to cover the -3.5 game spread at 49¢ on Kalshi. The class gap here is enormous – FAA sits at #6 in the ATP rankings with 4,050 points, while Tabilo is #36 with 1,278 points. Their lone prior meeting resulted in a 6-3, 6-3 FAA demolition at the 2025 Shanghai Masters on hard court, where he blasted 11 aces and allowed zero break points.
The tournament data makes the spread compelling. FAA’s serve has trended dramatically upward through three rounds: his double faults have gone from 6 to 8 to 0, while his aces climbed from 9 to 7 to 15. In his third-round win over #31 Brandon Nakashima (5-7, 6-1, 7-6, 7-6), FAA posted 15 aces with zero double faults, hit 74% of first serves, and won both tiebreaks (7-4, 7-1). His break-point conversion has been elite throughout – 50%, 70%, and 67% across three rounds – demonstrating an ability to capitalize when opponents’ serves waver.
Despite dropping the opening set in all three matches, FAA has covered -3.5 games in every round: +4 vs Altmaier (27-23), +11 vs Burruchaga (23-12), and +5 vs Nakashima (25-20). His dominant sets (6-0, 6-1 in R2; 6-1 in R3) more than compensate for the slow starts.
Tabilo arrives relatively fresh after playing just seven competitive sets – he received a walkover against Valentin Vacherot in R2. His R1 was a dominant 6-1, 6-3, 6-4 straight-set win over Majchrzak with a stunning 93% first-serve win rate, and he survived 17-year-old crowd-favorite Moise Kouame in four sets in R3 (4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6) with 17 aces and just three double faults. However, his break-point conversion in R3 was dreadful at 5 of 17 (29%) – meaning he needed 17 breakpoint opportunities just to convert five.
Against an FAA serve that produced zero double faults and 15 aces in the last round, Tabilo is unlikely to generate enough break chances to keep this competitive. While Tabilo’s freshness advantage (7 sets vs FAA’s 13) is notable, FAA’s superior class, improving serve trajectory, head-to-head dominance, and proven ability to blow opponents off the court in stretches make the -3.5 spread at 49¢ the sharper play over the 64¢ moneyline. It’s also helpful that the temperatures in Paris are dropping to the low 70s, which will mitigate Tabilo’s rest advantage.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Pick: Berrettini Moneyline (-138) Kalshi
My final wager is Matteo Berrettini on the moneyline at 58¢ on Kalshi. This is a fascinating clash with no prior head-to-head history, and the market has rightfully installed Berrettini as the moderate favorite despite sitting at #105 in the ATP rankings – well below Cerundolo’s #56. The pricing reflects Berrettini’s pedigree as a former top-10 player and the data from this tournament supports the line.
Berrettini’s serving has been absolutely elite through three rounds. In his straight-set demolition of Arthur Rinderknech in the second round (6-4, 6-4, 6-4), Berrettini posted an 85% first-serve win rate while converting four of eight breakpoint chances and conceding only one of three on his own serve. In the third round against Francisco Comesana, he survived an epic five-set battle (7-6, 5-7, 6-7, 6-4, 7-613) with 20 aces, an 82% win rate on first serve, and just three double faults across 199 total points. His max points won in a row (8) and serve consistency show a player who can sustain pressure during the most intense moments – evidenced by winning that 15-13 final-set tiebreak.
Cerundolo’s run has been remarkable, headlined by his stunning upset of world #1 Jannik Sinner in R2 (3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1). He posted 14 aces, converted eight of 14 break points (57%), and won 18 points in a row at one point in his comeback – an incredible display of mental fortitude. Of course, Sinner was far from 100%, whether it was the heat or a stated “illness”. Cerundolo’s R3 against Martin Landaluce was another five-set grind (6-4, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4, 7-68), where he cranked 16 aces and posted a 79% first-serve percentage. However, his break-point conversion dipped to 5 of 14 (36%), and his second-serve win rate dropped to 51%.
Here is where the fatigue narrative becomes pivotal. Cerundolo has played 13 sets across three rounds – including back-to-back five-setters against the world #1 and a talented young Spaniard. Berrettini played just 8 sets total (3 in R2, 5 in R3), giving him a significant physical edge entering this matchup. Cerundolo’s declining second-serve win percentage (70% → 62% → 51%) across rounds is a red flag that suggests his legs may be fading.
Berrettini’s weapon is his serve-and-forehand combination. His elite first-serve win rates (85%, 82%) mean Cerundolo will struggle to generate break opportunities, while Berrettini’s low double-fault totals (4, 3) minimize free points for the Argentine. At traditional sportsbooks, Berrettini’s moneyline has moved from an opening of -150 to -165, indicating sharp money is backing the Italian. Getting him at 58¢ (equal to -138 odds) is a great price. Berrettini’s superior serving. gives me confidence he can outlast a potentially fatigued Cerundolo on Court Suzanne Lenglen.
French Open Men’s Singles Odds for June 1st
All prices and odds from Kalshi at 2:40 pm ET, May 31. Remember that markets are dynamic and will shift as the first serve approaches.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
