Lorenzo Musetti vs Jannik Sinner Odds & Prediction – Monte Carlo Masters Quarterfinals

• After upsetting world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, Lorenzo Musetti faces Jannik Sinner in the Monte Carlo quarterfinals
• The two young Italians, just eight months apart in age, have only faced each other once before
• Sinner is a strong favorite in the Musetti vs Sinner odds; we break down a possible upset

The toughest part of pulling an upset of the magnitude of what Lorenzo Musetti did Thursday in Monte Carlo – beating No. 1 Novak Djokovic – is backing it up. He’ll try to do that against his fellow Italian Jannik Sinner in the Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinals Friday. Read on for our Musetti vs Sinner prediction.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Jannik Sinner Odds

Sinner is a surprisingly strong favorite in this one, at -310 odds to win. Musetti is at +250 in the Monte Carlo Masters odds. The spread is +4.5 for Musetti and -4.5 for Sinner, and the match total is set at 21.5 games.

Musetti vs Sinner odds as of April 13 are at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Career Win for Musetti

Djokovic likely should have won this encounter in two close sets. His serving was appalling, perhaps due to an ongoing elbow issue that had him wearing a sleeve on a cool evening in Monaco.

But every time Musetti would break his serve, Djokovic would immediately break back. Until the last break of the second set. And the end of the third.

Djokovic did not weather a rain delay early in the third set well. And Musetti came back and finished off a victory that will do him much good, but wasn’t so out of order for Djokovic in Monte Carlo. It’s a place the Serb  just hasn’t done well at in recent years.

Meanwhile, Sinner Also Escapes

If Hubert Hurkacz, the king of the comebacks, thought he might get through a straight-sets win when he was up a set and into a second-set tiebreak against Sinner earlier in the day, he thought wrong.

Sinner basically “Hurkaczed” him – coming back from a set down, points away from defeat, to run away with a victory in the third set.

The two had never played on clay before. But Hurkacz came in with a 2-1 head-to-head.

Musetti vs Sinner Head-to-Head

That is two straight impressive wins from Musetti, coming on the heels of a double bagel he handed out to another young Italian, 19-year-old qualifier Luca Nardi, in the second round. (First double bagel in Monte Carlo since 1997).

Lorenzo Musetti's last three sets in Monte Carlo:

6-🥯
6-🥯
6-🥯@Lorenzo1Musetti #RolexMonteCarloMasters pic.twitter.com/Gnsp6Xd1UU

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 12, 2023

If he celebrated that one a little … too exuberantly given the situation, his racquet did the talking Thursday against Djokovic. Musetti had come into the tournament with a sub-.500 record on the season.

But if the theme that the “older” of the two Italians holds up in Monte Carlo this week, Friday’s quarterfinal will go to Sinner.

Because as young as people think he still is, Sinner is actually eight months older than Musetti.

Musetti vs Sinner Match History

It’s surprising the two have only met once, and not on clay.

You know they had plenty of battles in the under-12s and under-14s even if it never happened at the top junior level. Sinner turned pro much younger, and grinded his way through the lower-level ITF Tour while Musetti won the junior Australian Open and jumped fairly quickly to the Challenger circuit.

Musetti vs Sinner Prediction

Relatively speaking, clay is by far Musetti’s most successful surface; his hard-court record is under .500 and he’s never won a match on grass. Sinner’s winning percentage on clay is better than Sinner’s overall; but he’s a better hard-court than clay-court player at this stage.

They’re both coming in in fine form. And Musetti will be coming in on a cloud. That actually could work against him.

Still, it’s somewhat surprising Sinner is this much of a favorite in the Musetti vs Sinner odds. So the outright upset in favor of Musetti (+250) is hardly outlandish. He’s a confidence player – and he’s hugely confident at the moment.

It sets up as a long two-setter, or to go the distance for our Musetti vs Sinner prediction.

Musetti vs Sinner Picks: Over 23.5 Games (+136).

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