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Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – Wimbledon Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jul 11, 2023 · 8:09 AM PDT

Aryna Sabalenka returns a shot during her match against Panna Udvardy
Jul 4, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Aryna Sabalenka returns a shot during her match against Panna Udvardy (HUN) on day two at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 25 seed Madison Keys is into her second Wimbledon quarterfinal, her first since 2015
  • No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka is looking for her second Grand Slam title in 2023
  • Read on as we break down this hard-hitting matchup, and make our Keys vs Sabalenka picks

Aryna Sabalenka was expected to be in this Wimbledon quarterfinal, while No. 25 seed Madison Keys is a pleasant surprise. See the odds and our top Keys vs Sabalenka picks for Wednesday’s match here.

Keys vs Sabalenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[25] Madison Keys (USA) +3.5 (-130) +162 O 22.5 (-108)
[2] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) -3.5 (-104) -196 U 22.5 (-126)

At -196 odds, Sabalenka is favored in the Keys vs Sabalenka odds for Tuesday’s Wimbledon quarterfinal. Keys is the underdog at +162 odds. The total games are set at 22.5 in their quarterfinal.

Keys vs Sabalenka odds as of July 10 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Get a FanDuel Sportsbook promo to bet on the Wimbledon quarterfinals here!


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Sabalenka’s Road Full of Hard-Hitters

One by one, No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka has knocked off hard-hitting adversaries on her way to the Wimbledon quarterfinals.

First it was Panna Udvardy of Hungary. Then three Russians, Varvara Gracheva (who recently began representing France), Anna Blinkova and then No. 21 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova.

YouTube video

Only Gracheva was able to get a set. Alexandrova, notably, was expected to give Sabalenka a tussle, given her recent good form on grass and the fact that she’d beaten Sabalenka the last two times they met (including once on grass).

Sabalenka surrendered just four games in a match that took just 71 minutes.

Now, she faces another hard hitter in Keys. So she’s had plenty of practice.

Keys KO’s the Kid, Andreeva

Madison Keys, 28, was in serious trouble against Russian qualifier Mirra Andreeva – an insouciant 16-year-old who has taken care of many top players through her rapid rise this spring and summer.

Despite having zero grass experience, Andreeva was up to it. Down 1-3 in the first set, she came back to take it 6-3. Then she rolled to a 4-1 lead in the second set.

But then, Keys’s veteran pride kicked in. She won the second-set tiebreak, and then rolled to a 3-6, 7-6 (5), 6-2 victory that put her into her second Wimbledon quarterfinal – her first in eight years.

“She’s obviously a great player, but you don’t want to be the person that loses to her, for her to get to her first quarterfinal. … I hoped my many, many years on tour would kick in,” Keys said.

Most of Andreeva’s elders during this rapid rise have gotten far too tight at the prospect of losing to the kid – not unusual for phenoms. So it was somewhat surprising that Keys, who wouldn’t have been a shock to join that crew  of nervy veterans – found her mojo.

Keys vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Madison Keys
Aryna Sabalenka
28 (Feb. 17, 1995) Age 25 (May 5, 1998)
Rock Island, Ill. Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
5-10 Height 5-11
7 Career WTA Singles Titles 13
No. 7 (Oct. 10, 2018) Career-Best Ranking No. 2 (July 3, 2023)
No. 18 Current Ranking No. 2
$16,036,415 Career Prize Money $17,115,459
25-8 2023 Won/Loss Record 39-7
1 Head-to-Head Wins 1

The question now will be whether Keys is satisfied with what she’s done. Or whether she has the appetite and the fight for more, against an even better opponent.

Keys vs Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Berlin (R16) Grass 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 Keys
2018 Cincinnati (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-4 Sabalenka

Keys comes in with a nine-match win streak on the grass, after winning the tuneup event in Eastbourne the week before Wimbledon. She also comes in having won her only meeting with Sabalenka on grass.

YouTube video

But that was two years ago, before Sabalenka rose to the top and won her first Grand Slam title in January.

Keys vs Sabalenka Prediction

Two trends changed in their fourth-round matches.

Keys had come to net between 11-14 times in her first three rounds. Against Andreeva, she came in 43 times (28-for-43). Good tool to have in her bag.

On Sabalenka’s side, she had nine aces and six double faults against Gracheva, and followed that up with nine aces and eight double faults against Blinkova.

In the impressive win over Alexandrova, she had seven aces – and no double faults.

The level of nerves and consistency for both of these talented but occasionally erratic players will be the overarching factor in this match.

Both are going to have lulls. So it’s a tough one to call but there’s a sense of destiny about Keys’s run.

Keys vs Sabalenka Picks: Keys in Three Sets (+380)

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