Men’s Olympic Tennis Odds & Preview: Novak Djokovic the Odds-on Favorite for Gold Medal
- Just five of the top 10, and nine of the top 20-ranked players in the world are competing in Tokyo
- No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic is the only “Big 3” member in the draw, and a heavy favorite
- Underdog medal winners aren’t unheard of in Olympic men’s tennis; we look at the possibilities
The problem with tennis and the Olympics is that the sport already has four “Olympian” events every year: the four Grand Slam tournaments.
Add COVID-19 concerns and massive restrictions in Tokyo to the mix, and 11 of the top 20 players in the world decided to pass on trying to win an Olympic medal.
Tokyo Olympics Men’s Singles Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [1] | Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -175 |
| [2] | Daniil Medvedev (ROC) | +450 |
| [3] | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +550 |
| [4] | Alexander Zverev (GER) | +1200 |
| [9] | Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +1700 |
| [5] | Andrey Rublev (ROC) | +2500 |
| [11] | Aslan Karatsev (ROC) | +3500 |
| [12] | Karen Khachanov (ROC) | +4000 |
| [7] | Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | +4000 |
| – | Marin Cilic (CRO) | +5000 |
| – | Marton Fucsovics (HUN) | +5000 |
| [10] | Gaël Monfils (FRA) | +6500 |
| – | Andy Murray (GBR) | +6500 |
| [6] | Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) | +6500 |
| – | Kei Nishikori (JPN) | +6500 |
| – | Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) | +8000 |
| [8] | Diego Schwartzman (ARG) | +10000 |
Odds as of July 23 at DraftKings
If it weren’t for the fact that Novak Djokovic was such a heavy favorite, it would be the most wide-open top-level men’s event in years.
Olympic Medal History is Feast or Famine
Either the gold medal contenders are in their fourth Olympics participation or it’s their first-ever experience at the Games.
There is no in-between.
Mum-son relationship goals. ❤️@andy_murray, @JudyMurray has a message for you. 😉#StrongerTogether@TeamGB | @ITFTennis pic.twitter.com/MEnouivndm
— Olympics (@Olympics) July 21, 2021
The most decorated of all, with gold medals in the last two editions, is Andy Murray. But Murray (+205) faces No. 9 seed Félix Auger-Aliassime of Canada (-275) in the first round.
Auger-Aliassime defeated Murray in three quick sets in the last outdoor hard court match Murray played, in the second round of the US Open last summer.
Gold Medal Contenders Olympic History
| Player | Olympic Appearances | Best Result |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | 2008, 2012, 2016 | Bronze (2008) |
| Daniil Medvedev | Debut | – |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Debut | – |
| Alexander Zverev | Debut | – |
| Félix Auger-Aliassime | Debut | – |
| Marin Cilic | 2008, 2012, 2016 | R16 (2016) |
| Andy Murray | 2008, 2012, 2016 | Gold (2012, 2016) |
| Kei Nishikori | 2008, 2012, 2016 | Bronze (2016) |
Best-of-Three Format Favors Medvedev, Zverev
With No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev back on his favored hard courts, he instantly becomes a medal contender.
And the best-of-three format adds players like Alexander Zverev into the mix as well. Zverev’s career resumé with the shorter format is far more impressive than his work at the Grand Slam events, which are best-of-five sets.
Even the gold-medal match in Tokyo will be best of three, for the first time.
Previous Olympic Gold, Silver and Bronze Medallists
| Year | Gold | Silver | Bronze |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 (Rio) | Andy Murray | Juan Martin del Potro | Kei Nishikori |
| 2012 (London) | Andy Murray | Roger Federer | Juan Martin del Potro |
| 2008 (Beijing) | Rafael Nadal | Fernando Gonzalez | Novak Djokovic |
| 2004 (Athens) | Nicolás Massu | Marty Fish | Fernando Gonzalez |
| 2000 (Sydney) | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | Tommy Haas | Arnaud Di Pasquale |
Djokovic With Golden Slam Dreams
With the first three Grand Slam tournament titles in his pocket, Djokovic needs to win the US Open to be the first male player in over 50 years to win the calendar Grand Slam. And adding the gold medal would give him the first men’s “Golden Slam”. (Steffi Graf accomplished that in 1988 on the women’s side).
While he had some doubts about his participation after an intense period in June and July winning the French Open and Wimbledon, he’s in Tokyo.
And he’s hard to bet against.
Wow. This is intense. Djokovic smashing a racket during a practice set against Alexander Zverev. #Tokyo2020 pic.twitter.com/ccq59MWTVq
— James Gray (@jamesgraysport) July 22, 2021
Which doesn’t mean he’s not stressed out about the whole thing.
First-Round Matches to Watch
[2] Daniil Medvedev (-750) vs. Alexander Bublik (+450)
Bublik is a wild card who can beat anyone on a given day, or go down amid the flames of his own inconsistency. But if you want to get to a top contender, best to get him early. This is Medvedev’s first Olympics, too. And being a favorite is pressure.
[7] Andrey Rublev (-285) vs. Kei Nishikori (+210)
Nishikori has waited years for the Olympics to take place in his homeland. The courts are slow enough that he might be able to track down Rublev’s forehand power. And he’ll be motivated to give it absolutely everything. Definitely an upset to consider.
[10] Gaël Monfils (+125) vs. Ilya Ivashka (-160)
Monfils, who got married last weekend, has struggled in 2021 with the pandemic restrictions and his motivation. With no fans in the stands to feed off, and Ivashka’s level on a hard court, it’s no wonder the Belarussian is the favorite.
Best Bet: Novak Djokovic (-165)
Longer shot: Alexander Zverev (+1200)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
