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Men’s Wimbledon Quarterfinal Odds Favor Nadal, Djokovic, & Federer Advancing

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Tennis

Updated Apr 4, 2020 · 2:23 PM PDT

Roger Federer serves at Wimbledon
Is Roger Federer vulnerable at the Wimbledon Quarterfinals? (By:Squeaky Knees from Cornwall, UK [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]
  • The Quarterfinals at Wimbledon take place on Wednesday, July 10
  • The Big 3 — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic — are all heavily favored
  • Where is the best betting opportunity in the four matches?

One of the Big 3 has won Wimbledon in 14 of the last 16 years. You cannot debate the dominance of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic, who have combined to win a total of 53 majors. Would it surprise you to know that all three have never reached the semifinals in the same year at the All England Club?

They each are big favorites in the quarterfinal round, but history says at least one will go down. Our Wimbledon odds tracker does not indicate that bettors feel the same way.

Sportsbooks have the numbers on each of the quarterfinals. Let’s dig in.

Rafael Nadal vs Sam Querrey Wimbledon Odds

Nadal vs Querrey Moneyline Spread Total
Rafael Nadal -789 -5.5 (-130) O 35.5 (-110)
Sam Querrey +614 +5.5 (+110) U 35.5 (-110)

*All odds taken 07/08/19

In a shocker to nobody, the 18 time major winner is a heavy favorite over the journeyman from America.

This is not Nadal’s preferred surface

Nadal may be among the best of all time, but when he reached the semifinals at Wimbledon last year, it was the first time he got that far since 2011. A two time champ in London, he has dropped one set thus far in the tournament and is 4-1 all time against Querrey. They have never played on grass.

Since upsetting fifth seed Dominic Thiem in the first round Querrey has dropped just one set, and has been particularly strong in tiebreaks. Playing in his seventh Wimbledon, this is the first time Querrey has won more than one match. His semifinal berth in the Australian Open this year matched his best ever performance at a major.

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David Goffin vs Novak Djokovic Wimbledon Odds

Goffin vs Djokovic Moneyline Spread Total
David Goffin +1114 +7 (+104) O 32 (+100)
Novak Djokovic -1714 -7 (-124) U 32 (-120)

*All odds taken 07/08/19

Wimbledon’s defending champ and five time winner is a big chalk, though he has failed to reach the semis in two of the last three years.

Do you believe in miracles?

The formula for an upset often revolves primarily around the underdog. Of course Djokovic can be beaten, he was knocked out at this stage two years ago, and failed to reach the quarters in 2016. That said, can Goffin do it?

Goffin has lost five of six career matches against Djokovic, the lone victory coming on a clay surface. Goffin has never reached a major semifinal, and in six previous trips to Wimbledon lost in the first round three times. The 28 year old backed up a five set win over Daniil Medvedev in the third round with a four set victory against Fernando Verdasco in the Round of 16.

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Roger Federer vs Kei Nishikori Wimbledon Odds

Federer vs Nishikori Moneyline Spread Total
Roger Federer -913 -6 (-113) O 35.5 (-110)
Kei Nishikori +688 +6 (-107) U 35.5 (-110)

*All odds taken 07/08/19

Federer has won more majors than any player in history, and his eight triumphs at Wimbledon make it his best venue.

Roll Call: Father Time

Roger won 16 majors from 2003 to 2010. However, after winning the Australian Open in 2010 to Wimbledon in 2012 there was a nine major gap. Then he failed to win one for more than four years, capturing the Australian Open in 2017. He added Wimbledon in 2017, and Australia in 2018, but is not the dominating player he once was.

Nishikori has lost just one set this year at Wimbledon, and is playing very well. Since reaching the quarters at the All England Club last year, he got to the semifinals at the U.S. Open, and the quarters in Australia and at the French Open. Federer is 7-3 all time against Nishikori.

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Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Guido Pella Wimbledon Odds

Bautista-Agut vs Pella Moneyline Spread Total
Roberto Bautista-Agut -507 -5.5 (-120) O 36.5 (-117)
Guido Pella +412 +5.5 (+100) U 36.5 (-113)

*All odds taken 07/08/19

The #23 seed Bautista-Agut meets the #26 seed Pella with the winner reaching a major semifinal for the first time.


These aren’t the big names, but Pella’s five set marathon win over Milos Raonic on Monday was great drama. Pella has played 17 sets at Wimbledon this year. This is the 29-year-old Argentine’s first trip to a major quarterfinal.

Bautista-Agut has not lost a set at the tournament, and is having his best year on tour. The 31 year old Spaniard made his first major quarterfinal at the Australian Open. He reached the third round at the French Open. He is 2-0 all time against Pella.


Best Bets for 2019 Wimbledon Quarterfinals

If you are going to wager against one of the Big 3, pretty clearly Federer is the guy to target. He is the oldest, at this stage the least consistent, and is taking on a legitimate opponent. Nishikori on the moneyline and with games is worthwhile.

The odds on Bautista-Agut vs. Pella don’t make sense. In a vacuum sure Pella ought to be really tired. That said, they match up fairly evenly. Pella beat Kevin Anderson, who made the Finals at Wimbledon last year, and just got by the very competitive Raonic. At better than 4/1 odds, he is worth a play.

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