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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Australian Open Men’s Singles Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Feb 19, 2021 · 8:16 AM PST

Djokovic vs Medvedev
Serbia's Novak Djokovic reacts after winning a point against Russia's Aslan Karatsev during their match at the Australian Open Tennis championships in Melbourne, Australia, Thursday, Feb. 18, 2021. (AP Photo/Andy Brownbill)
  • Novak Djokovic is looking for his ninth career Australian Open title
  • Daniil Medvedev is in his second Grand Slam final
  • The odds are close for the two; we look at who might win and why below

Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev were the top two favorites to win the Australian Open before it began.

And they are the two left standing for Sunday night’s final.

And of all the other players in the draw, Medvedev may have the most legitimate shot at dethroning the eight-time champion.

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB0 -1.5 (+107) -117 O 41.5 (-103)
[4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +1.5 (-127) +100 U 41.5 (-115)

Odds taken Feb. 19 at DraftKingsย 

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Routine, but Crowd went Wild

The crowds were back on Friday at the Australian Open. A COVID maximum of about 7,500 fans.

And when Stefanos Tsitsipas revived briefly in the third set, the fans were loud. And pretty rough on Medvedev.

On Sunday night, there’s a good chance the Russian will have the crowd with him rather than against him.

The Aussie fans love an underdog. And generally, they aren’t huge Novak Djokovic fans, which is quite a thing considering he’s won their tournament eight times.

But if the fans applaud Djokovic’s missed first serves or double faults (as they did for Medvedev Friday), it’s going to heat up out there.

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev

33 (May 22, 1987) Age 25 (Feb. 11, 1996)
Belgrade, Serbia Birthplace Moscow, Russia
6-2 Height 6-6
81 Career ATP Singles Titles 9
No. 1 (July 4, 2011) Career High Ranking No. 4 (Sept. 9, 2019)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 4
$145,861,177 Career Prize Money $14,707,309
4 Head-to-Head 3

Djokovic admitted Friday that the next generations are talented. But he said he is going to make them work their (behinds) off to overtake him.

Djokovic’s Oblique Injury Sorting Itself

The world No. 1 has been dealing with what he called a tear of the oblique muscle.

The effects of that (in addition to the tape job) were visible at times during his matches leading up to the semifinal.

He would pull up short, or contort his body and change his posture in various ways to try to find a position that didn’t bother him.

A lot of treatment from his own staff and the ATP staff paid off. Djokovic looked more comfortable than he had through the fortnight during his straight-sets win over qualifier Aslan Karatsev.

An Extra Day’s Rest

Djokovic had the luxury of playing his semifinal Thursday night, while Medvedev defeated Tsitsipas on Friday night.

That gives Djokovic the extra day, which historically has been a bit of an advantage โ€“ although not a huge one.

Since 2000, the winner of the Thursday semifinal has won the Australian Open title 12 times; the winner of the Friday semi has won it nine times.

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev: Match History

Tournament Round Score Winner
2020 ATP Finals RR 6-3, 6-3 Medvedev
2020 ATP Cup SF 6-1, 5-7, 6-4 Djokovic
2019 Masters Cincinnati SF 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 Medvedev
2019 Masters Monte Carlo QF 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 Medvedev
2019 Australian Open R16 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-3 Djokovic
2017 Eastbourne SF 6-4, 6-4 Djokovic
2017 Davis Cup 1R 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, 1-0 retd Djokovic

Rare Close Head-to-Head for Djokovic

It’s not often a player will have such a close head-to-head record against one of the “Big Three”.

Medvedev has beaten Djokovic three of the four times they have met since a fourth-round clash at the 2019 Australian Open won by Djokovic in four sets.

It wasn’t smooth sailing for the No. 1, though.

Medvedev knows Djokovic has a lot more experience in major finals.

But the 25-year-old Russian also believes that Djokovic has a lot more to lose.

The Serb has made the Australian Open final eight times. And he has won all eight times.

Meanwhile, Medvedev has won his last 20 matches going back to last year’s Paris Masters. And 12 of those victories have come against top-10 players (including Djokovic). He has beaten every active member of the top 10 during that span except Roger Federer, who was injured.

One streak is going to be over late Sunday night.

Human Wall vs Human Wall

Djokovic’s great quality is that it’s incredibly difficult to get the ball past him.

Medvedev has similar qualities. Despite his height, he appears to get to everything with relatively little effort. He also has a bigger serve.

The rallies will be long. The games will be long. But until Djokovic is dethroned, you always have to give him the champion’s edge โ€“ oblique permitting.

Since there’s not much in the winner, the value is in the side props.

Tiebreaks over 1.5 stands at +255. The total number of games gets into the positive odds at over 42.5. And that seems likely.

And the odds for the match to go five sets are at +215.

Best Bet: Djokovic in five sets (+510)

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