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Odds Heavily Against Alexander Zverev Winning His First Grand Slam in 2019

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 23, 2020 · 9:22 AM PDT

Alexander Zverev
Can Alex Zverev win one of the final three grand slams in 2019? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Zverev hasn’t been past the fourth round at any Grand Slam
  • His best chance to win a Grand Slam will be at Roland Garros
  • Betting odds suggest that Zverev won’t win a Grand Slam in 2019

Alexander Zverev is currently third in the ATP rankings and many view the 21-year-old as an up-and-comer. However, he’s had trouble delivering in Grand Slams.

Is this the year he breaks through? Sportsbooks have posted odds on how many.

Odds on Number of Grand Slams Zverev Wins In 2019

Grand Slams Odds On Number Of Grand Slams Won By Zverev
None -500
One +300
Two +3300
Three +15000

*Odds taken 2/8 

French Open

The French Open figures to be Zverev’s best chance to win a Grand Slam this year.

After all, he was 16-2 on clay last year and 16-4 the year before. This is his best surface right now. He’s also been to the quarter-finals at Roland Garros, which is the furthest he’s been at any Grand Slam.

The challenge is that while Rafael Nadal is healthy and functional, he’s going to destroy everything in his path at Roland Garros. These two have met five times and Rafa has schooled him, winning all five matchups. That includes three matches on clay.

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On top of that, Novak Djokovic is playing really well right now and will be tough to stop at the French Open, even though that’s his weakest surface.

Wimbledon

Zverev doesn’t have a great track record at Wimbledon. Of course, anything can change, but as of now, it’s hard to trust him. For his career, he has won just six of his nine matches at the All England Club.

Zooming out on his grass court performances, he was just 2-2 on grass last year, 9-3 in 2017, and 6-2 in 2016. Roger Federer is more likely to be a factor here than any other major, which takes a bite out of Zverev’s chances.

US Open

The US Open seems like the least likely spot for Zverev to pull this off. He has never even been past the third round at Flushing Meadows.

For his career there, he has a 4-4 record, which is lousy. He was 23-9 on the hard courts last year and 22-8 the year before. While that’s not bad, it’s not good enough to win a Grand Slam.

There is one cause for optimism here and it’s that Zverev had also never been past the third round at the Australian Open until 2019. This year, he made it to the fourth round.

Still, it’s hard to get that excited considering he beat Alex Bolt, Aljaz Bedene, and Jeremy Chardy to get there, and he needed five sets to get past Chardy.

Why ‘None’ Is The Best Bet

Can Zverev win a Grand Slam? Of course.

Federer is past his prime, Nadal is still an injury risk, and Djokovic could surprisingly get knocked out. However, this is a bad bet.

We’re talking about a player who has just once been to the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam and never beyond.

Yes, he’s young. Yes, he’s been deemed as the next great phenom but we’ve heard this story before (Kei Nishikori, Nick Kyrgios).

For contrast, Nadal won his first Grand Slam at 18. Federer had been to multiple quarters by 19 and won his first Grand Slam before 22. And Djokovic had been to multiple quarters and semis, and even won a Grand Slam before 21.

Zverev is just not on that arc. He’ll probably win one at some point but he’s not a great bet to win one this year.

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