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Paris Masters Quarterfinals Odds & Picks: Nadal Continues to Be the Favorite

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Nov 5, 2020 · 4:22 PM PST

Rafael Nadal hitting a back
Rafael Nadal leads the way as the quarterfinals for the Paris Masters get underway on November 6th. Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Paris Masters quarterfinal matches take place Friday, November 6th
  • Five of the top ten seeds are still in action for the quarterfinals
  • Read below for a preview of the first three matches and our best bets

All four quarterfinal matches will be played on Friday. Rafael Nadal headlines the day as he is usually the favorite wherever and whoever he plays. He’s also the -134 favorite to win the tournament outright. All match odds are listed below, and we’ve previewed the first three of the day to be played on Friday, November 6, 2020.

Paris Masters Quarterfinals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[6] Diego Schwartzman +3.5 (-129) +180 O 22.5 (+100)
[3] Daniil Medvedev -3.5 (+102) -225 U 22.5 (-125)
Player Spread Moneyline Total
[10] Milos Raonic -2.5 (-127) -250 O 23.5 (-107)
Ugo Humbert +2.5 (+100) +195 U 23.5 (-120)
Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Rafael Nadal -4.5 (-139) -590 O 20.5 (-121)
[9] Pablo Carreno Busta +4.5 (+110) +425 U 20.5 (-106)
Player Spread Moneyline Total
[4] Alexander Zverev
[12] Stan Wawrinka

All odds taken Nov 5th from DraftKings. As of writing odds not released on Zverev vs Wawrinka

[6] Schwartzman vs [3] Medvedev

This will be the fourth time these two players have seen each other in their careers. Medvedev leads their head-to-head record having won all three previous matches. Their first meeting came in 2018 in Tokyo, but their most recent match came earlier this year in the quarterfinals of the ATP Cup in Australia where Medvedev won the battle 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.

Number 3 seed, Medvedev is looking to reach his first final of 2020, after reaching six straight finals in 2019. The Russian has not had nearly the same year as last. He’s only made two semifinals this year and currently holds an 18-10 win-loss record this year.

He’s also not made this quarterfinal without trouble. His previous match against Alex de Minaur in the Round of 16 had to be a comeback after he dropped the first set. He eventually figured it out and went on to win 90-percent of his first serve points after that first set loss.

On the other hand, sixth seed Schwartzman has had a fairly easy ride to the final eight of the Paris Masters. His 2020 had been fairly impressive, with a huge win over Rafael Nadal at the Italian Open on clay. Beating Nadal on clay is something that will never go unnoticed.

With a win in the quarters, Schwartzman earns himself a spot in the ATP Finals. He’s striving for that, and Medvedev is just looking to gain some of the momentum he had in 2019. The way Schwartzman is playing, he’s actually the one who deserves to win this match. If he can control Medvedev in any long rallies that happen and can adapt to the quick surface, Medvedev will have a hard time beating him.

Best Bet: Medvedev in three sets (+290)

[10] Raonic vs Humbert

This will be a first-time match-up between these two players. Not much to go off of. Raonic currently is ranked higher in the ATP rankings at 17, while Humbert is ranked 34.

Raonic has looked pretty impressive in his three matches this tournament. He’s won them all in straight sets. His biggest strength has always been his serve, and in this tournament, it’s no different.

Humbert on the other hand has had quite the journey to the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters. He started off his tournament against Casper Ruud, where he found himself down the first set and had to find a way to come back. Next round he had his toughest opponent he has seen so far, Stefanos Tsitsipas. He took the first set, but it was a full three-set battle, where he obviously ended up upsetting the second seed.

Best Bet: Raonic in three sets (+275)

[1] Nadal vs Carreno Busta

Nadal and Carreno Busta are no strangers to one another. This quarterfinal match between the two will be the seventh time the fellow countrymen have played each other in their careers. They saw each other for the first time in their careers way back in 2015, and most recently in Italy at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome, where Nadal won in straight sets.

The world number two and the number one seed of the tournament is the heavy favorite in this match and that’s no surprise. It’s not that Carreno Busta didn’t have a chance in this tournament. He’s still ranked number 15 in the world, but his opponent is just too good.

On paper, Carreno Busta has actually had a cleaner route to this quarterfinal match. He has yet to drop a set and has been fairly dominant in his matches. Nadal has a bit of a hiccup when he dropped his first set of the tournament to Feliciano Lopez, and he hasn’t been his typical Nadal self, but even if he’s off his game a little bit, he’s still better than most.

Best Bet: Nadal in two sets (-177)

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