Sabalenka vs Pegula Picks, Best Bets & Odds (US Open)

• Aryna Sabalenka is a -188 favorite in semifinal action against Jessica Pegula at the US Open
• Sabalenka owns a 9-4 lifetime advantage over Pegula
• See my Sabalenka vs Pegula picks, best bets, and updated odds below

The stage is set for a blockbuster US Open women’s singles semifinal, a high-stakes clash that pits world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against a resilient home contender in No. 3 Jessica Pegula.

For bettors, the central question is whether Pegula can turn her excellent return game into enough scoreboard pressure to offset Sabalenka’s superior serve and first-strike power.

Action gets underway at 7pm ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

You can watch the match live on ESPN, while Canadian viewers can tune into TSN.

Sabalenka vs Pegula Picks and Best Bets

• Pick: Over 21.5 Games (-122 at Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Over 21.5 Games

55%

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The Kalshi price converts to -122 on the Over and +117 on the Under, making the Over the more compelling side at this number. Their last four meetings – all played over three sets – include the 29-game Berlin semifinal in June. That is a particularly useful matchup signal for this total: Pegula has the consistency to make Sabalenka solve problems over multiple return games, while Sabalenka’s power can create quick runs of games in either direction.

The 52-week numbers point to Sabalenka as the more dominant player, but not to a one-sided matchup. Tennis Ratio’s comparison has Sabalenka ahead in dominance ratio (1.593 to 1.458), breakpoints-prevail ratio (1.937 to 1.538), and match efficiency (3.264 to 2.324), while Pegula has slight edges in return games won (38.3% to 37.8%) and break points created per game (0.87 to 0.84). That combination supports Sabalenka winning the match without requiring a routine straight-set score. The Over remains the preferred value play at 21.5 games.

• Pick: Sabalenka to Win (-188 at bet365)

Sabalenka’s power and major-tournament pedigree make her my pick to advance, even with Pegula’s recent head-to-head win. The full 13-match series favors Sabalenka 9-4, including victories in the 2024 US Open final and 2025 US Open semifinal. Pegula has made the matchup competitive—each of the last four meetings went the distance – but her recent success does not erase Sabalenka’s long-term edge.

The underlying numbers reinforce that position. Tennis Abstract’s Aug. 31 Elo update rates Sabalenka at 2,180.9 overall and 2,164.7 on hard courts, compared with Pegula at 2,103.9 overall and 2,063.9 on hard courts. Sabalenka also wins more first-serve points (70.5% to 68.4%), second-serve points (52.4% to 49.6%), service games (80.9% to 74.7%), and break points saved (62.8% to 58.1%) over the past 52 weeks. Pegula’s return-game edge makes a close match plausible, but Sabalenka’s serve profile and roughly 101-point hard-court Elo advantage still make her the likelier winner. However, at -186, the moneyline offers less value than the Over, so the total is the stronger primary pick.

Sabalenka vs Pegula Odds

Odds as of Sept 10 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Sabalenka leads the complete 13-match series 9-4, but the recent pattern is more competitive than that aggregate record suggests. Pegula has won two of the last four meetings, and all four went to a deciding set. That history supports pairing the Sabalenka moneyline with an Over 21.5-games wager rather than expecting the favorite to cruise.

Pegula has won the most recent meeting, but the broader matchup and the current performance indicators still favor Sabalenka. If Pegula extends rallies and keeps the ball in play, she has a realistic path to another close contest. However, if Sabalenka protects her second serve and dictates with her forehand, the favorite should have enough separation to advance.