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Shelby Rogers vs Leylah Fernandez Odds & Prediction – BNP Paribas Open Round of 16

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Oct 12, 2021 · 8:12 AM PDT

Leylah Fernandez hitting a return shot during a tennis match.
Leylah Fernandez, of Canada, returns a shot to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, of Russia, at the BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
  • Shelby Rogers and Leylah Fernandez will take the court around 3:15 pm ET today in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells
  • This will be the second meeting between the two players
  • Continue below for odds, preview, and best bet prediction for this match

The BNP Paribas Open, also known as Indian Wells will see all eight matches in the Round of 16 being played today. American Shelby Rogers will go head-to-head with young Canadian and 23rd seed, Leylah Fernandez this afternoon.

Rogers enters the match having yet to drop a set over her three matches at Indian Wells. The 28-year old dominated her Round of 32 match, to earn her spot here. 19-year old Fernandez upset ninth seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in three sets, after dropping the first, to book her spot in the final 16.

Fernandez enters the match as the slight favorite, but where’s the best bet? Take a look at the odds, and a breakdown of what we might expect from this match below.

Shelby Rogers vs Leylah Fernandez BNP Paribas Open Round of 16 Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Shelby Rogers +3.5 (-120) +170 Ov 21.5 (-115)
[23] Leylah Fernandez -3.5 (-115) -215 Un 21.5 (-120)

Odds as of October 12th at DraftKings.

Rogers Perfect Through Three

This is the second Round of 16 match on US turf in as little as a month. She competed in the US Open Round of 16 following a win over Ashleigh Barty. Will the crowd  play into her being on home turf here?

The unseeded American has breezed through her three matches here in California, having yet to drop a set. Her most recent match against Romania’s Irina-Camelia Begu saw her win 6-0, 6-2. She landed 72 percent of her first serves, and was able to record a point 68 percent of the time. The big difference that was able to make it almost impossible for her opponent to gain momentum, was that she was able to follow that up with a 90 win percentage on her second serves.

Fernandez will definitely be her toughest opponent to date at the tournament, as she looks to book her spot in the quarterfinals.

Fernandez Upsets Pavlyuchenkova

Heading into this tournament, it’s safe to say all eyes were on both Fernandez and her fellow teenage phenom, Emma Raducanu. Raducanu’s run at Indian Wells has since come to an end, while Fernandez has been able to pick off right where she left off at the US Open.

With her 23rd seeded, Fernandez received a bye in the first round. She then eased through her Round of 32 match over Alize Cornet, winning 6-2, 6-3, which set up her match against Pavlyuchenkova. It took over two and a half hours, but Fernandez was able to fight back after losing the first set 7-5, to win 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

The 19-year old was able to fight off a breakpoint in the eighth game of the decider to gain a 5-3 lead, and managed to serve out the match to earn the win.

The Canadian will look towards American Rogers in her Round of 16 match. She’ll be entering as the favorite to win, but Rogers does currently hold the head-to-head record edge between the two.


This is the second meeting between Rogers and Fernandez. The two met for their one and only previous match back in 2020 in the Round of 16 at Lexington. There Rogers won in straight sets.

Shelby Rogers vs Leylah Fernandez Head-to-Head Stats

Shelby Rogers
Leyleh Fernandez
44 WTA Standing 28
28 Age 19
0 Career Titles 1
265/216 Career W/L 104/64
0 YTD Titles 1
25/21 YTD W/L 23/16
1 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Best Bet

This should be an exciting match to watch, with neither player going down easy. Rogers enters this match on a high, she has yet to lose a set here, and coming into this tournament, she defeated Bianca Andreescu in Chicago, and before that Ashleigh Barty at the US Open, before ultimately losing to Emma Raducanu. Fernandez is fighting her way through, and keeping her momentum high off of the upset over Pavlyuchenkova.

These two even out pretty well. It seems like it’s really going to come down to who records the least amount of unforced errors, and can control the match. Rogers will be coming in, perhaps a bit more rested, with her previous match lasting just over an hour, compared to Fernandez’s over two and half hours. But because Fernandez has played one less match then the American, the time spent on the court, games and sets played is actually pretty even.

This looks to be a match that will go the distance.

Best Bet: Ov 2.5 sets (+135)

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