US Open Picks for Monday, Aug 31 – Men’s Singles

• The US Open Men’s Singles main draw kicks off Monday in New York
• I am targeting value across the moneyline, spread, and totals markets
• See below for some of my top Round 1 US Open odds, predictions and best bets

Welcome to a massive day of betting action at the 2026 US Open Men’s Singles in New York, NY.

The main draw’s Round of 128 is officially underway, boasting a packed slate with plenty of intriguing storylines to unpack as these athletes hit the hardcourt.

In this breakdown, I will dive into the day’s biggest matchups, evaluate the lopsided odds, and pinpoint the best ways to exploit the betting landscape. Let’s dig into my expert tennis picks.

All matchups will be played at Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, New York. You can catch the action on ESPN in the United States, while Canadians can tune in on TSN.

US Open Men’s Odds for Monday, Aug 31

Odds as of August 31. Get a Polymarket promo code to wager on all tennis matches.

Round 1 Predictions and Best Bets

• Dimitrov vs Popyrin Pick: Dimitrov Moneyline (-194 at Polymarket)

My top outright selection on today’s slate is backing Grigor Dimitrov on the moneyline. At -200, Dimitrov sits right in the sweet spot for a highly wagerable favorite. The matchup data supports that price: over the past 52 weeks, Dimitrov leads Popyrin in dominance ratio (1.209 to 0.907), match efficiency (0.672 to 0.509), return games won (18.7% to 13.0%), and breakpoints converted (37.3% to 34.9%). He has also won 42.9% of tiebreaks compared with Popyrin’s 23.1%, an important edge in what could be a hard-court match decided by a few key points (Tennis Ratio, 52-week key-stat comparison).

Dimitrov’s serve profile is steadier as well, with an 82.0% service-games-won rate and 56.2% of break points saved, narrowly ahead of Popyrin at 81.0% and 54.1%. He also has the stronger pressure-point profile, winning 63.6% of pressure points on serve and 34.9% on return, compared with Popyrin’s 62.6% and 33.3%, respectively, per Tennis Ratio’s 52-week key-stat comparison.

Dimitrov reached the US Open qualifying final round with wins over Lorenzo Giustino and Timofey Skatov, while Popyrin’s recent hard-court run included a loss to Tennys Droguet in Cincinnati qualifying and a retirement against Hugo Gaston in Quebec.

I refuse to lay steep chalk on the board’s biggest favorites, so Dimitrov offers a sturdy alternative with genuine value. I expect him to dictate the pace of the rallies, protect his serve, and secure the outright victory.

• Auger-Aliassime vs Hijikata Pick: FAA -6.5 Games (-133 at Polymarket)

Felix Auger-Aliassime opened as a massive -1000 favorite on the moneyline, representing an 86.4% vig-free implied win probability. I never advocate backing a moneyline at that exorbitant price, so I am shifting my focus entirely to the spread. The underlying numbers justify expecting a one-sided match: over the past 52 weeks, Auger-Aliassime owns a 1.388 dominance ratio to Hijikata’s 0.950, a 1.732-to-1.064 edge in breakpoints prevail, and a 1.715-to-1.517 advantage in match efficiency. His serve is the biggest separator, with 89.3% of service games won compared with 78.0% for Hijikata, along with a 78.3%-to-69.1% edge in first-serve points won and a 67.6%-to-62.4% advantage in break points saved (Tennis Ratio, 52-week key-stat comparison).

Recent results also show Auger-Aliassime’s hard-court ceiling: he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Cincinnati before losing to Frances Tiafoe, while Hijikata followed wins over Luca Darderi, Gael Monfils, and Darwin Blanch with losses to Jakub Mensik, Jaume Munar, and Benjamin Bonzi. Auger-Aliassime’s run at Wimbledon—straight-set wins over Dino Prizmic and Michael Zheng before a five-set loss to Novak Djokovic—further illustrates the level he can bring against quality opposition.

• Mensik vs Mochizuki Pick: Under 32.5 Games (-113 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Best Bet

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Kalshi

Under 32.5 Total Games

53%

Predict

Rounding out my daily best bets is the Under 31.5 total games in the clash between Jakub Mensik and Shintaro Mochizuki. Like Auger-Aliassime, Mensik is sitting at a -1000 moneyline (88.7% vig-free win probability). Rather than betting that unplayable number, the under offers tremendous value.

The Elo gap is even more pronounced: Tennis Abstract rates Mensik at 1,910.4 overall and 1,874.9 on hard courts, while Mochizuki is at 1,559.7 overall and 1,482.5 on hard courts. That is a 392.4-point hard-court advantage for Mensik, a gap that strongly points toward a one-sided result under Tennis Abstract’s Elo benchmarks.

Mochizuki does own small return-side advantages in return games won and breakpoints converted, while both players win more than 60% of their tiebreaks, so Mensik must avoid allowing extended sets to develop. Still, I anticipate Mensik will look for a quick knockout, breaking Mochizuki’s serve early and often to keep the sets decisively short. Without relying on false narratives about player unfamiliarity artificially lengthening or shortening matches, the sheer statistical probability of a lopsided, straight-sets victory from such a dominant favorite heavily supports cashing the under here.