Tour de France Stage 9 Odds, Picks and Predictions
- Stage 9 of the 2021 Tour de France (Sunday, July 4) is a significant test in the mountains before the first rest day
- The 145 kilometres route from Cluses to Tignes includes five serious climbs
- Is there betting value on Tadej Pogacar, a GC rival, or an attacker?
Is the Tour de France effectively over? While there are many sprints, climbs, and pomp to go, defending champion Tadej Pogacar is in the driver’s seat.
Though Pogacar took the Yellow Jersey in Stage 8, the beauty of Grand Tour’s is there is still a ton to determine. Of course, Pogacar can crash, and if he doesn’t there are still races within the race. Who will win each individual stage, and take the Green Jersey, White Jersey, and Polka Dot Jersey?
Pogacar didn’t win on Saturday, Dylan Teuns did. Teuns was a part of the breakaway, and soloed to victory. However, Pogacar seized control of the overall race. He doesn’t need to win on Sunday, but is the favorite (+400) when Stage 9 commences (7:10 am ET). It is always dangerous to take a short price on someone who doesn’t have incredible incentive to win.
Let’s consider the Stage 9 odds and looks at several betting opportunities.
Tour de France Stage 9 Odds
| Rider | Odds to Win Stage | Top-3 Finish Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | +400 | +110 |
| Miguel Angel Lopez | +800 | +200 |
| Julian Alaphilippe | +900 | +200 |
| Pello Bilbao | +2000 | +500 |
| Jakob Fuglsang | +2000 | +500 |
| Pierre Latour | +2000 | +500 |
| Ben O’Connor | +2000 | +500 |
| Michael Woods | +2200 | +550 |
| Dan Martin | +2500 | +700 |
| Wout Poels | +2500 | +700 |
| Esteban Chaves | +2800 | +750 |
| Richard Carapaz | +3300 | +800 |
| Omar Fraile | +3300 | +800 |
| Simon Yates | +3300 | +800 |
| Richie Porte | +3300 | +800 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | +3300 | +800 |
| Bauke Mollema | +4000 | +1000 |
| Sergio Higuita | +4000 | +1000 |
Odds as of July 3rd from DraftKings
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Last year Pogacar’s win was shocking. He hung in long enough to secure a spot on the podium, and unbelievably blew by Primoz Roglic during Stage 20’s Individual Time Trial. This year Pogacar has looked every bit the favorite from the get go.
While Grand Tour’s can be lost at any moment, they are frequently won in the mountains. Pogacar sent a message earlier in the week taking a time trial, and made no doubt he is going to win barring a collapse gaining three minutes on his closest rivals Saturday, and adding even more time on other GC contenders.
Pogacar’s lead is 1:48 over Wout van Aert. The only other riders within five minutes of the front are Alexey Lutsenko (4:38) and Rigoberto Uran (4:46). Five cyclists are between five and six minutes back, Jonas Vingegaard, Richard Carapaz, Wilco Kelderman, Enric Mas, and David Gaudu.
The Favorite
If your goal is to win, without regard for return on investment, Pogacar is your guy. He is clearly the strongest rider in the mountains, as was expected before the race began and before several GC riders were injured. That said, he does not need to win any stages the rest of the way. If he stays safe, he will be the winner in Paris.
Pogacar blew the race wide open on Saturday. However, he did not win the stage. Sunday could be similar. Of course, he is more than capable of blowing by, and maybe before the rest day is an opportunity to go for it knowing that there is time to recuperate on Monday.
Contenders
Less than a month ago Miguel Ángel López looked untouchable when he put together the fastest ascent of Mont Ventoux since 2004. In winning the Mont Ventoux Dénivelé Challenge, Lopez sent a message that on any day in the mountains he must be respected.
Lopez has completed six career Grand Tour’s and finished among the Top 10 in each of them. He won the Vuelta a Andalucía this year, and took a mountain stage at the Tour de France last year.
Julian Alaphilippe is a rider you can always feel comfortable with. He took Stage 1 this year, has won six different days over five Tour appearances, and in 2018 won the Mountains Classification.
Currently in 24th place nearly 19 minutes behind Pogacar, Alaphilippe is free to target individual stages, and the GC won’t worry about him. He was among a large group of riders all but eliminated on Saturday, and surely would like to redeem himself now.
Longshot
Like Alaphilippe, Bauke Mollema was left behind on Saturday. He also has the resume to be competitive in the mountains.
Mollema took this March’s Trofeo Laigueglia, and was second in the GP Industria & Artigianato di Larciano. He won a Tour stage in 2017, and three times has finished among the Top 10 in Paris.
After competing in the GC race at this year’s Giro d’Italia, and finishing third, Simon Yates is targeting stages at the Tour. He was in the breakaway on Friday, but to no avail.
Yates is a strong climber who has won eight Grand Tour stages. He won the 2018 Vuelta a España.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
