Tour de France Stage 8 Odds, Picks and Predictions

• Stage 8 of the 2021 Tour de France (Saturday, July 3) is the first day in the mountains
• The last 50 kilometres between Oyonnax and Le-Grand-Bornand are a significant challenge for even the top climbers
• Is there betting value on top GC riders, climbing specialists, or attackers?

Hopefully riders aren’t exhausted after the longest Tour de France stage in two decades. Following nearly 250 bumpy kilometres on Friday, the race reaches the serious mountains Saturday and Sunday.

There was a juicy price available if you had backed Matej Mohoric on Stage 7. After more than two dozen riders attacked early on Friday, Mohoric separated himself on the Signal d’Uchon, and powered to an 80-second win over Jasper Stuyven.

The GC race got shaken up on Friday, with Primoz Roglic likely eliminated. It is the event’s top contenders who are likely to battle it out on Saturday. Defending champ Tadej Pogacar (+700) is the favorite both to eventually take the Yellow Jersey, and to win Stage 8 when things get going (7:15 am ET) on what will be the toughest day thus far in the race.

Let’s look at the Stage 8 odds and discuss a handful of serious contenders.

Tour de France Stage 8 Odds

Odds as of July 2nd.

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The first week of this year’s tour has been characterized by carnage. Major crashes have impacted sprinters and GC contenders alike. Whether his injuries were a part of a miserable day on Friday or not, Roglic, who finished second last year and was a top contender in 2021, got butchered. He finished nine minutes behind Mohoric, and dropped nearly four minutes to other GC contenders.

While Roglic failed to keep up on Friday, Ineos’s Richard Carapaz made a bid. Around the same time Mohoric took off alone, and Roglic fell off the back, Carapaz attacked the other GC contenders and seemed as though he was going to pick up ground. He held an edge until the final meters, but got caught, and finished in unison with the other top contenders.

Race leader Mathieu van der Poel and second place Wout van Aert were among the initial large group of breakaway riders on Friday. They finished together, 100 seconds behind Mohoric. The lead for van der Poel remains half a minute, with van Aert in second, and Kasper Asgreen in third place, 1:49 back.

Pogacar, who continues to be a heavy favorite to be in yellow when the race arrives in Paris, is 3:43 off the pace. Carapaz is 5:19 back, and Geraint Thomas must make up 5:29.

Saturday’s 151 km stage features three Category 1 climbs in the final third of the course. There is a Cat 3 challenge about 60km into the day, and a Cat 2 midway through the trek. The final three climbs are 5.7 kilometres at 8.3%, 8.8 km at 8.9%, and 7.5 km at 8.5%. The finish line is downhill. There are not only time bonuses at the finish line, but late in the race at Col de la Colombière too. Bonuses provide extra motivation for GC hopefuls.

Let’s break down some of the top options.

The Favorite

Dating back to the start of last year’s Tour de France, Pogacar has risen to every occasion. He was far from the favorite last year, and as a member of a team that isn’t among the strongest, he just hung in and battled. It appeared he would finish second, but he dramatically passed Roglic on the Stage 20 individual time trial.

Again this year Pogacar was the upset winner of a time trial, on Stage 5. While he is minutes behind, the mountains are where he should have a big advantage. He could send his second big message of the opening week by winning on Saturday.

Contenders

Though it didn’t work, the fact Carapaz attacked on Friday is a great sign. He pretty clearly is the Ineos rider in the best form. His team, which has won the Tour in seven of the last nine years, is well equipped to support him.

Carapaz seems like the biggest overall competition for Pogacar at this stage. Pogacar is the better time trialist, which means Carapaz will need to make his move in the mountains. Though this is the first of six mountain stages, and the move doesn’t need to come on Saturday, he seems to be in excellent form, and taking his shot now gives him an an opportunity to test Pogacar again if he fails to gain big on the first opportunity.

This is just the second Tour for veteran Canadian Michael Woods. A two time stage winner at the Vuelta a España, Woods loves climbing.

Woods is having a good year. He finished second at the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes et du Var, and among the Top 5 at the La Flèche Wallonne, Tour de Romandie, Tour de Suisse, and Liège–Bastogne–Liège.

Julian Alaphilippe is quite simply the most versatile cyclist in the race. He is competitive in every sort of stage, and winning in the mountains is far from outside his comfort level.

He has won six Tour stages and in 2018 took the Mountains Classification. In April he won La Flèche Wallonne.

Longshot

Nairo Quintana won the Giro in 2014, and Vuelta two years later. Three times he has been on the Tour de France podium. While he is 31-years-old, Quintana has said this year he is not focusing on the GC, but instead going after an individual stage or two.

He won this year’s Vuelta Asturias, and the price is certainly right for someone who excels in the mountains, and the GC won’t worry about if he attacks.