Tour de France Stage 7 Odds, Picks and Predictions
- Stage 7 of the 2021 Tour de France (Friday, July 2) is the longest day of the race in two decades
- The monster 250-kilometer trek from Vierzon to Le Creusot is a little bit difficult to characterize
- Should bettors consider attackers, puncheurs, or climbers?
Saturday and Sunday, the Tour de France will feature classic mountain stages where GC riders are poised to duke it out. Friday’s Stage 7 doesn’t exactly ease the race into the serious climbing.
While there are no categorized climbs over the first half of the 250 kilometers, there are five in the final 80 kilometers. The length of the race, the longest at the Tour in 20 years, provides opportunity for many types of riders. Things get going early (5:15 am ET) on an afternoon which surely will see a breakaway, attacks, counters, and who knows what else.
Oddsmakers favor Yellow Jersey-holder Mathieu van der Poel (+600) on Friday, but if you can pick the winner, a square price will come with it. Let’s look at the updated odds and consider some contenders.
Tour de France Stage 7 Odds
| Rider | Odds to Win Stage at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Mathieu van der Poel | +600 |
| Julian Alaphilippe | +1200 |
| Magnus Cort Nielsen | +1600 |
| Michael Matthews | +1600 |
| Wout Van Aert | +1600 |
| Sonny Colbrelli | +1800 |
| Peter Sagan | +1800 |
| Alex Aranburu | +2200 |
| Omar Fraile | +2200 |
| Thomas De Gendt | +2500 |
| Matej Mohoric | +2500 |
| Soren Kragh Andersen | +3300 |
| Kasper Asgreen | +3300 |
| Benoit Cosnefroy | +3300 |
| Michael Valgren | +3300 |
Odds as of July 1st.
|
Promo: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + NBA No Sweat SGP | Learn More |
|
Promo: Bet $5 Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins | Learn More |
|
Promo: Up To $1,500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back | Learn More |
The more things change, the more they remain the same. At the age of 36, and having missed the Tour de France each of the last two years, Mark Cavendish won Thursday’s sprint finish, his 32nd career stage victory.
Cavendish, only in the race this year because of an injury to Sam Bennett, won his second bunch sprint in the last three days. The victory is his 50th on a Grand Tour. Jasper Philipsen finished second, and Nacer Bouhanni was third.
The Stage 6 sprint, with a marathon coming on Friday, and major climbing this weekend, allowed GC riders to take it easy. There was no major movement in the standings.
The leader continues to be van der Poel. He holds an eight second edge over defending champion Tadej Pogacar. Wout van Aert is in third place, 30 seconds behind. Julian Alaphilippe is another 18 seconds back. Three riders worth keeping an eye on are Richard Carapaz who is 1:44 back, Primoz Roglic, trailing van der Poel by 1:48, and Geraint Thomas 1:54 off the pace.
Stage 7 could be decided on the climb of Signal d’Uchon with about 18 km left. It is a very unorthodox uphill that lasts 5.7 km and features an average gradient of 5.7%. What makes it so unusual is a significant drop with about two km left in the climb, and then gradients in double-digits including 13.1% for the final 700 metres.
Friday’s course has a lot of inflection points. A tactical and technical ride will be needed to win. So who are the top options?
The Favorite
One big reason van der Poel remains in the lead is his versatility. His ability as a puncheur is how he won Stage 2, but his sprinting skills allow him to be near the front during bunch days. While he shouldn’t be awesome in the mountains, it is expected he’ll hold his own. On a stage with a bit of everything, a rider with variable skills is beneficial.
Though this is the first Grand Tour for van der Poel, his results have not been unexpected. He has been terrific in most everything he has tried, winning Strade Bianche this year while finishing second at the Tour of Flanders.
Contenders
Alaphilippe has a very similar style to van der Poel. He won Stage 1, and never seems out of sorts regardless of what type of course is placed in front of him.
Because van der Poel is new to the Tour, and leading, he is the bright shiny object getting a ton of attention. Alaphilippe was in that spot last year, and has largely matched van der Poel step-by-step this year. On a wide open day, the six time stage winner feels like good value.
It is a little bit difficult to measure what is going on with Jumbo-Visma right now. Primoz Roglic has struggled, but he is clearly still a viable GC contender as the mountains approach. Meanwhile, Wout van Aert looks strong, and has circled this stage.
An involved, long stage should fit van Aert. He has three career Tour stage victories, and just took the Belgian National Cyclo-cross Championships.
Longshot
As if the Tour hasn’t been completely taken over by Slovenians, wouldn’t it be something if Matej Mohoric triumphed on Friday? Not nearly as well known as Pogačar and Roglic, Mohoric has stage victories at the Giro and Vuelta.
Mohoric has a history of winning in breakaways, and it isn’t wild to think the GC could let him go. After a nasty crash at the Giro, he won his nation’s Road Race Championship.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
