Historical NFL Conference Championship Odds from Past Seasons

• The Patriots and Seahawks are the reigning AFC and NFC Champions, respectively
• Look back to past seasons to view the opening NFL Conference Championship odds and see how the futures changed throughout each season
• Were you looking for the current NFL Conference Championship odds?

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While it’s not the most popular NFL futures market to bet, I have enjoyed tracking the odds to win the AFC and NFC Championship each year since the 2019-20 season. You can use the links below to jump to any specific season to see what the opening NFL Conference championship futures looked like, how and why they changed throughout the season, and who ended up winning both conferences.

2025-26 Season | 2024-25 | 2023-24 | 2022-23 | 2021-22 | 2020-21 | 2019-20

2025-26 AFC Championship Odds

The 2025-26 NFL season was full of shocking results! Among those were the two teams who won their respective conference championships and met in Super Bowl 60. Entering the season, it was the usual Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens listed as the top contenders in the AFC, while we saw the Eagles and Lions well above the rest of the NFC.

However, the AFC Championship was won by the Patriots, while the NFC Championship was won by the Seahawks. Both of these teams had very long odds to win their respective conference championships when odds opened. You can see both of their journeys to becoming legitimate contenders, while watching the fall of teams who were seen as top contenders below in the graphs, which contain the odds to win the AFC and NFC Championships, which I tracked from opening right through to kickoff of the Conference Championships.

Thanks to Bo Nix breaking his ankle on one of the final plays of Denver’s Divisional Round win over the Bills, the Patriots entered the AFC Championship game as favorites on the road. But it took a long time for the Patriots to be recognized as a legitimate contender after they opened the season with +5000 odds to win the AFC Championship.

Even in late September, New England’s odds to win the AFC Championship were an average of +6417. Yet, they overcame the odds and won the AFC Championship, narrowly beating the Broncos.

Here are some notes on the 2025-26 AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 13] Sportsbooks obviously believed New England drew the easier matchup in the Divisional Round (Texans), as they took over as the favorites after the Broncos drew the Bills.
• [December 30] The Bills’ loss to the Eagles in Week 17 resulted in the Broncos taking back over as the favorites to win the AFC.
• [December 23] The Broncos recorded a bad loss to the Jaguars in Week 16, resulting in Buffalo taking back over as the favorite.
• [December 16] A really solid win over the Packers in Week 15, which gave Denver a strong probability of getting homefield advantage at this time, is why the Broncos took over as the favorites to win the AFC.
• [December 9] New England was on bye in Week 14 and the Bills recorded a good win over the Bengals. This is what led to the Bills taking back over as favorites.
• [December 2] The Chiefs lost to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, which resulted in the Patriots taking over as the favorites to win the AFC for the first time this season.
• [November 25] A Bills loss to the Texans paired with the Chiefs beating the Colts in Week 12 was the cause for Kansas City taking back over as the favorite.
• [November 18] The Chiefs losing to the Broncos in Week 11 resulted in Buffalo taking back over as the favorite.
• [November 11] Buffalo’s bad loss to the Dolphins in Week 10 was the cause of them tumbling down the board, and Kansas City regaining the title of favorite.
• [November 4] After the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 9, Buffalo regained the top spot in the AFC Championship odds.
• [October 15] With Buffalo’s record falling to 4-2 after a Week 6 loss to the Falcons, some sportsbooks started to favor the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC.
• [September 16] After Joe Burrow suffered what might be a season-ending turf toe injury, sportsbooks wrote the Bengals off, tanking their odds from +1080 to +2920.
• [September 9] The Bills mounted a fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens in Week 1, which resulted in Buffalo overtaking Baltimore as the favorite to win the AFC.
• [August 20] Sportsbooks made it quite clear that they did not agree with Shane Steichen’s assessment of Daniel Jones giving Indianapolis a better chance of winning than Anthony Richardson. The Colts’ AFC Championship odds dipped from an average of +3850 to as long as +6000 after Jones was named the starter.
• [March 12] After acquiring DK Metcalf from the Seahawks, the Steelers saw their NFL Conference futures improve from +2750 to +2250. I think it’s likely we see Pittsburgh’s odds improve a little further if they manage to land Aaron Rodgers in free agency. Their top two WRs are among the best in the league, but they still need someone to distribute the ball.
• [February 21] Yet again, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as the favorites to win the AFC Championship with slightly longer than 3-1 odds. The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills opened in the same tier as the Chiefs, both getting odds shorter than +400. There was a significant drop to the next team, the Bengals, at just shorter than +900 odds. The team with the biggest difference in opening AFC Championship odds year-over-year was the Broncos, who opened at +6000 last year, but had the seventh-best opening odds at +1733. The Jets’ odds were a lot different from last season as well, seeing just shorter than 57-1 odds this season versus their +1500 odds from last season.

2025-26 NFC Championship Odds

While they weren’t as much of an afterthought as the Patriots in the AFC, the Seahawks were not seen as a legitimate contender in the NFC when odds opened. After their Week 1 loss to the 49ers, their odds to win the NFC faded to an average of +3700, giving them worse odds than the Bears and Cowboys.

But by the midway point of the season, Seattle had established themselves as one of the top contenders in the NFC, thanks to their stingy defense and the solid play they were getting from Sam Darnold.

The Seahawks took over as the favorites after the Rams lost to the Falcons in Week 17, removing themselves from the race for the top seed in the NFC. Seattle increased the gap between them and the field after beating the 49ers in Week 18 to clinch homefield advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Here are some notes on the 2025-26 NFC Championship odds movement:

• [December 30] The Rams’ loss to the Falcons, which cost them a chance at winning the division and claiming the top seed in the NFC, was the reason for the Seahawks taking over as the favorites following Week 17.
• [November 11] Another very impressive win by the Rams, led by another great game from QB Matthew Stafford, resulted in LA taking over as the favorites to win the NFC following Week 10.
• [November 4] While on bye, the Eagles took back over as the NFC favorites, thanks to the Lions and Packers being upset in Week 9.
• [October 21] Detroit became the NFC favorites for the first time after a dominant Week 7 win over the Buccaneers, while the Packers posted another uninspiring victory.
• [October 15] The Packers regained the favorite status after Week 6, when they beat the Bengals and the Eagles were upset by the Giants.
• [September 23] Philadelphia took back over as the favorites to win the NFC Championship after the Packers were upset by the Browns in Week 3.
• [September 16] The Packers logged another extremely impressive win in Week 2, beating the Commanders with ease, and while the Eagles did beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead, it wasn’t a very convincing one. The result was the Packers taking over as the favorites to win the NFC, marking the first time someone other than the Eagles were favored this season.
• [September 9] Green Bay’s odds got notably better after a very impressive Week 1 victory over the Lions. This movement gave them the second-best odds at the time.
• [August 29] The Packers acquiring Micah Parsons really shook up the NFC Championship odds. While the Eagles did not see much movement as the favorites, their odds did worsen a touch from +330 to +380. The Lions, who have to deal with Green Bay twice as fellow NFC North teams, saw their odds worsen from an average of +496 to as long as +700. The Packers’ odds improved from an average of +1008 to as short as +650, leaping the Rams, Commanders, and 49ers on the board.
• [July 22] Bettors must have started believing in JJ McCarthy, as Minnesota’s NFC Championship odds steadily improved from an average of +2100 back in March to an average of +1167 ahead of the preseason.
• [March 12] The LA Rams saw their NFC title odds improve from +1225 to +1050 after re-signing Matthew Stafford and adding Davante Adams in free agency. The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, saw their odds fade from +1600 to +2100 after losing Sam Darnold in free agency, leaving second-year pro JJ McCarthy as the projected starter at this point.
• [February 21] The Philadelphia Eagles opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship with shorter than 3-1 odds. The Lions were a close second at opening with just longer than +400 odds. The NFC team with the biggest difference in opening odds year-over-year is the Commanders, who opened last season at 55-1 odds to win the NFC Championship, but had the fourth-best opening odds this season at +900. The 49ers were one of the bigger surprises at opening, as they were given the third-best odds in spite of missing the playoffs last season.

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Odds to Win 2024-25 AFC Championship

After winning their second straight AFC Championship, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as the favorites to win the AFC in 2024-25 as well. Their odds continued to get better with each win until they lost Rashee Rice to a season-ending knee injury in Week 4. KC remained the favorites right through to Week 13, but were knocked out by the Buffalo Bills for one week.

Kansas City managed to take back over as the favorite following Week 14, then Buffalo’s big win over the Lions in Week 15 moved the Bills back atop the odds. However, Kansas City took back over after the Bills nearly lost to the Patriots at home in Week 16.

The two teams met in the AFC Championship game after they both advanced through the NFL Divisional Round, and the Chiefs (yet again) came out victorious, winning the AFC Title.

The team with the biggest difference in opening AFC Championship odds from last year is the Houston Texans. They began last year with the worst odds to win the conference (+10000), but opened this season at +1300, which was the sixth-best on the board, and made it all the way to the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Kansas City was the favorite to win the AFC Championship once the matchup was set. The Chiefs were given -120 odds to win the AFC Championship. If you bet $20 on Kansas City, you would have won $16.67 and return $36.67. The Chiefs’ probability of winning the conference was 54.6%.

Their opponent in the AFC Championship was the Buffalo Bills, who saw their conference championship odds improve from +255 to +100 after beating the Ravens in the Divisional Round. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 when the two met in Week 11, but came up short in the playoffs again.

Here are some notes on the 2025 AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 26] The Chiefs won their third straight AFC Championship after downing the Bills in the title game.
• [January 19] The AFC Championship game will be played between the conference’s top two seeds, though the Bills entered the Divisional Round with the third-best odds, trailing the Ravens. Kansas City will host the Bills as -120 favorites to win the AFC Championship.
• [December 23] Buffalo’s narrow victory over the Patriots in Week 16, along with Kansas City’s good showing against the Texans, resulted in the Chiefs taking back the best odds to win the AFC.
• [December 17] The Bills moved back into the top spot in the AFC title odds after beating the Lions in Week 15.
• [December 10] Buffalo’s reign atop the AFC Championship odds lasted just one week, as the Chiefs took back over following the Bills’ Week 14 loss to the Rams.
• [December 3] The aftermath of Week 13 marked the first time this season the Kansas City Chiefs were not favored to win the AFC. Their poor performance against the Raiders on Black Friday, paired with Buffalo’s dominant win over the 49ers, resulted in the Bills taking over as the AFC favorites.
• [November 19] Buffalo handed Kansas City their first loss of the season in Week 11, but the Chiefs remained the favorites to win the AFC Championship. The Bills did move ahead of the Ravens for second-best odds with the big win, though, as Baltimore also suffered another loss in Week 11.
• [October 29] Sportsbooks really soured on the Bengals and Jets after Week 8. New York was upset by the Patriots and Cincinnati lost by three scores at home to the Eagles. The Jets’ AFC Championship odds faded from +2725 to +6000, while the Bengals’ odds went from +1625 to +2100.
• [October 15] After acquiring Davante Adams, the Jets saw their AFC Championship odds remain what they were prior to Week 6. Their odds worsened immediately after losing to the Bills in Week 6 MNF, but the Adams trade negated that dip. Buffalo’s NFL conference odds saw a very slight improvement after landing Amari Cooper from the Browns. Though their odds did not improve a ton, it was enough to move ahead of the Texans, who they had been tied with entering Week 6.
• [October 1] The Chiefs remained the favorites after potentially losing Rashee Rice for the season, though their odds did fade a little from +232 to +300. Baltimore’s dominant win over the Bills in Week 4 resulted in their AFC championship odds going from +675 to +425, leaping both the Texans and Bills.
• [September 24] Both the Chargers and Dolphins saw their AFC Championship odds plummet following Week 3. Miami played their first game of the season without Tua Tagovailoa and it did not go well. LA got beat up by the Steelers in Week 3 and their QB, Justin Herbert, reaggravated his ankle injury. Miami fell from +2000 odds to +3800, while LA went from +2067 to +3400.
• [September 17] In spite of starting the season 0-2, the Ravens still had the fourth-best odds to win the AFC following a Week 2 upset at the hands of the Raiders. They did have the second-best prior to Week 2, though, and saw their odds fade a little from +600 to +800. With the Tua Tagovailoa injury, Miami’s conference odds plummeted from +1050 to +2000.
• [September 9] Cincinnati’s odds to win the AFC went from +725 to +1100 after being upset by the Patriots in Week 1. The Bengals lost outright in spite of being the league’s heaviest Week 1 favorite, laying more than a touchdown. Their odds haven’t completely plummeted, though, as many believe this was just a bad week resulting from Ja’Marr Chase not having practiced with the team all offseason, as well as Tee Higgins missing the game.
• [August 15] The Bills conference odds took another hit, this time going from +720 to +850, as defensive leader Matt Milano tore his bicep.
• [April 29] The Steelers saw their Super Bowl odds improve from +4050 to +3260 after signing Russell Wilson. They continued to shorten, down to +2471 at this point, after trading for Justin Fields and addressing some offensive line needs in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Dolphins’ AFC Championship odds worsened from +1080 to +1257 after drafting players who are unlikely to start this season early in the draft.
• [April 3] After acquiring Stefon Diggs from the Bills, Houston’s AFC Championship odds improved from +1240 to as short as +700.
• [February 21] The Chiefs have opened as the favorites to win the AFC Championship in 2024-25. This comes as no surprise after they have won the past two.

Odds to Win 2024-25 NFC Championship

The 49ers opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship again, but their slow start (and lengthy list of injuries) caught up with them pretty quickly. The Detroit Lions took over as the new NFC favorites after Week 7, marking the first time San Francisco was not favored.

Detroit remained the NFC favorites until after Week 15, when they lost to the Bills, but more importantly, lost David Montgomery for what appeared to be the season at that point – the latest news suggests he will return to the lineup in the playoffs. Philadelphia took over as the favorites after Week 15, but gave it right back to Detroit when they lost to the Commanders in Week 16.

The Eagles managed to outlast the Lions in the playoffs, though, as Detroit was sent home early in the Divisional Round. Philadelphia, who became the new favorite to win the NFC Championship, hosted the Commanders for the right to play in the Super Bowl, marking the third time the two teams played this season. The Eagles came out on top, winning the rubber match and claiming the NFC Title.

The Eagles were the favorites to win the NFC with -225 odds the week of the title game. If you bet $20 on Philadelphia prior to the game, you would have won $8.89 and return $28.89. Based off those odds, the probability of the Eagles winning the NFC Championship was 69.2% once the matchup was set.

Philadelphia took on the Washington Commanders in the 2025 NFC Championship. The Commanders were seen as the underdogs, getting as long as +195 odds to beat the Eagles and win the NFC title.

Here are some notes on the 2025 NFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 26] The Eagles dominated the Commanders in the NFC Championship, winning the conference for the second time in the last three seasons.
• [January 19] Philadelphia immediately became the new favorites to win the NFC Championship after the Lions were sent home by the Commanders in the Divisional Round. The Eagles became heavy -225 favorites to win the NFC after they beat the Rams.
• [January 5] The Lions moved to near-even money to win the NFC Championship after clinching the #1 seed in Week 18. The Vikings, on the other hand, faded from +400 to +700 after losing out on the top seed, instead ending up as the #5.
• [December 31] Detroit remained the NFC Championship favorite after Week 17, but their odds worsened from +157 to +200 with the Vikings beating the Packers, setting up a matchup between the Lions and Vikings in Week 18 for the NFC North title. The loser would get the #5 seed and have to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs.
• [December 23] Philadelphia’s loss to the Commanders in Week 16, where Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game with a concussion put them behind in the race for the NFC’s top seed. As a result, the Lions took back over as the favorites to win the NFC following Week 16.
• [December 17] Detroit’s reign as the NFC favorite came to an end following Week 15. The Lions not only lost to the Bills in Week 15, but lost one half of their dynamic RB duo, as David Montgomery’s season came to an end due to a knee injury.
• [November 26] San Francisco’s odds to win the NFC have plummeted following their 38-10 loss to the Packers in Week 12. The 49ers moved from +942, which was still third-best in the conference after Week 11, to as long as +3500 after the loss.
• [November 5] Dallas’ NFC Championship odds plummeted to as long as +10000 after Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury in Week 9 is likely to land him on the IR.
• [October 29] The Cowboys saw their NFC Championship odds fade from +1750 to +3000 after losing to the 49ers in Week 8, which dropped their record to 3-4.
• [October 22] After Week 7, the 49ers were not the favorites to win the NFC for the first time this season. San Francisco suffered another loss on the scoreboard, but the bigger loss may have been to their receiving corps, as Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL and MCL and Deebo Samuel checked into the hospital with pneumonia. The Detroit Lions took over as favorites after they handed the Vikings their first loss of the season.
• [October 15] The Lions did not see any major drop-off in their NFL conference odds after losing Aidan Hutchinson for the season with a leg injury. However, San Francisco and Green Bay’s odds did improve more than expected after their Week 6 wins. In spite of the Cowboys being blown out again, they still held the seventh-best NFC Championship odds following Week 6, though their odds did drop from +1075 to +1675.
• [October 1] Minnesota’s Week 4 win in Green Bay finally saw them become a top five contender in the NFC, as their odds improved from +1133 to +750, which were tied for third-best at the time. The Eagles remained a top five contender in spite of an awful loss to the Bucs in Week 4.
• [September 24] San Francisco remained the NFC favorites after dropping their Week 3 matchup with the Rams, marking their second straight loss. However, the 49ers did see their NFC odds fade from +278 to +460. Minnesota’s NFC Championship odds continue to improve, as they won their third straight game to start the season, this time downing the Texans in Week 3. The Vikings saw their odds go from +1867 to +1200, which is still only sixth-best on the board.
• [September 17] Despite all losing in Week 2, the 49ers, Lions, Eagles, and Cowboys (who were embarrassed) remained the top four contenders to win the NFC with very little odds movement. Looking to the teams who provided those upsets, the Saints moved from +2800 to +1300, Buccaneers from +2800 to +1600, and Vikings from +2950 to +1800. The Falcons didn’t see their odds move much.
• [September 9] In spite of a very slow start, the Eagles did find their footing in Week 1 and looked like the team who went to the Super Bowl two years ago. Their win over the Packers in Brazil, largely thanks to Saquon Barkley’s big game, resulted in their odds improving from +600 to +475, overtaking the Lions for the second-best odds to win the NFC. The Packers and Falcons saw the biggest dips in NFC odds, as the Packers went from +825 to +1700 after their loss to the Eagles, but more importantly, losing Jordan Love for 3-6 weeks, and the Falcons went from +1250 to +1800 after their offense looked like it needs a lot of work.
• [July 24] Bettors have been favoring the Chicago Bears with their new-look offense, led by first-overall pick Caleb Williams, and we have seen the Bears’ odds to win the NFC improve from +1700 to +1500 as a result of money coming in on them.
• [March 15] With Cousins gone and no immediate answer at QB, the Vikings have seen their NFC odds fade from +2000 to +3000.
• [March 11] The Falcons’ NFC Championship odds improved from as long as +2000 to +1200 after landing free agent QB Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia’s odds improved slightly, going from +850 to +750, after signing Saquon Barkley.
• [February 21] The San Francisco 49ers have opened as heavy favorites to win the NFC Championship for a second straight season. The Lions, who blew a big lead to the 49ers in last year’s NFC title game, opened with the second-best odds.

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Odds to Win 2023-24 AFC Championship

Kansas City yet again won the AFC Championship and represented their conference in the Super Bowl. The Baltimore Ravens were the favorites to win the AFC Championship, though. After the Chiefs continued struggling offensively, Baltimore took over as the favorites after Week 14. Kansas City opened as the favorites, and ultimately ended up winning the conference.

Following Week 14, the Baltimore Ravens became the new favorites to win the AFC Championship in 2024. The Ravens were favored over the Chiefs in the AFC title game, as they were getting -162 odds to dethrone the Chiefs as AFC champions. Kansas City’s odds to win the game were listed at +136.

Here are some notes on the AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 28] The Kansas City Chiefs upset the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, punching their ticket to the Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
• [January 21] The Ravens will host the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Baltimore has opened as -175 favorites to win the game and are laying 3.5 points.
• [January 8] After winning the AFC East and clinching the 2-seed in the final week of the regular season, the Bills enter the playoffs with the second-best odds to win the AFC.
• [December 11] For the first time this season, the Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC Championship. After they lost to the Bills in Week 14, showing more of the same offensive concerns displayed all season, the Baltimore Ravens have taken over as the favorites. Kansas City didn’t just drop one spot, though. The Dolphins overtook them for the second-best odds as well, leaving KC with the third-best.
• [November 17] The Bengals had +825 odds to win the AFC before their Week 11 game against the Ravens, but are now given +5000 odds after Joe Burrow has been announced out for the season with a wrist injury.
• [November 6] In early October, the Bills had the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship with average odds of +390. After Week 9, which saw Buffalo lose to the Bengals in what was their third loss in five weeks, the Bills have dropped to the sixth-best odds at +1100. Those odds put them right in the middle of the true contenders and lower-level playoff teams.
• [September 26] After Week 3, the Miami Dolphins moved ahead of the Bills for the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship.
• [September 12] The Browns saw their odds improve from +2000 to +1000 after a dominant victory over the Bengals in Week 1. The Jets, who lost Aaron Rodgers for the season to a torn Achilles just four plays into his debut, have faded from +1100 to +3000. None of the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals saw their odds move much after they all lost in Week 1.
• [March 15] The Jets now have the fourth-best odds to win the AFC after Aaron Rodgers has confirmed his intentions to play for them this season. A deal still needs to be finalized, but it appears the two sides are well on their way. New York’s odds improved from +1400 to +800 as a result.
• [February 13] The Kansas City Chiefs, who are the reigning Super Bowl champions, have opened as the favorites to win the 2024 AFC Championship.

Odds to Win 2023-24 NFC Championship

The 49ers opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship. We saw the Eagles take over as favorites for most of the offseason, but San Francisco regained their place atop the odds after Week 1. That changed again after the 49ers lost to the Bengals in Week 8, but they regained their spot atop the odds after Week 12.

Brock Purdy and company pulled off a big comeback in the NFC Championship and took on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers were favored over the Lions in the NFC Championship. The 49ers were given -310 odds to win the game. Detroit was listed at +250 odds to pull off the upset.

One of the bigger surprises in the NFC Championship odds was the Detroit Lions, who were given the fourth-best odds on the board at +900 entering the playoffs, but were as short as +250 as they took on the 49ers in the NFC Championship. Only the 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles had better odds than the Lions to win the NFC in 2023-24 during the regular season.

Here are some notes on the NFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 28] San Francisco found themselves down 24-7 to the Lions entering halftime of the NFC Championship, but tied the game up before the fourth quarter even started. The 49ers went on to win 34-31 and will head back to the Super Bowl for the first time in four years, when they played the same team they’ll meet in Las Vegas.
• [January 21] The Lions head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. Brock Purdy’s squad is listed as -310 favorites to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
• [January 2, 2024] For the first time this season, the Eagles are not among the top two in NFC Championship odds. Philadelphia’s Week 17 loss to the Cardinals has resulted in Dallas controlling the NFC East and overtaking them for the second-best conference odds behind the 49ers.
• [November 28] Even though the Eagles beat the Bills to move to 10-1, sportsbooks are obviously feeling concerned with Philadelphia’s inability to put a complete game together. The result has been San Francisco moving back to being the slight favorites to win the NFC Championship.
• [November 21] After beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead on Monday Night Football of Week 11, the Eagles have broken away as the favorite to win the NFC Championship. They were tied with the 49ers prior to this.
• [October 10] The Cowboys were embarrassed by the 49ers in Week 5, resulting in the Lions moving up into the third-best odds to win the NFC Championship. Dallas’ odds faded from +450 to +850.
• [September 12] The San Francisco 49ers have taken over as the NFC favorites after Week 1. The Niners demolished the Steelers in Week 1 and looked very good on both sides of the ball.
• [June 1] Since the NFL Draft, the Seahawks have seen their NFC Championship odds steadily improve. They opened at +3000, tied for the third-worst odds, but are now just +1100, which are the fifth-best on the board.
• [March 16] Since signing Derek Carr in free agency, the New Orleans Saints have seen their NFC Championship odds improve from +2200 to +1100, the fifth-best in the conference.
• [February 13] The San Francisco 49ers have opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship in 2024, in spite of the Eagles beating them this past season and having a very young core that is basically all set to return this coming season. San Francisco has a potentially nice problem on their hands in a QB battle brewing between Trey Lance and Brock Purdy they will have to resolve.

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2022-23 AFC Championship Odds

[sbd-amchart event=”afc-championship” title=”Top 2023 AFC Championship Contenders”]

I tracked the odds to win the 2023 AFC and NFC Championships all season long from the moment they opened. The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC Championship, while the Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC.

Closing 2023 AFC Championship Odds

Below, you’ll see the narrative of the AFC Championship odds in the week leading up to the game.

The Kansas City Chiefs are back to being the favorites to win the AFC Championship. The Chiefs opened as the favorites, but that changed Tuesday morning as the betting line continued to surge in favor of the Bengals. Cincinnati became as heavy as 2.5-point favorites on Tuesday. Wednesday morning brought us our first line movement in Kansas City’s favor, though, and as of Thursday afternoon, all sportsbooks were back to listing the Chiefs as the favorites. Some sportsbooks have even moved to KC -2.5 as of Sunday.

Kansas City’s AFC Championship odds are listed as short as -135 at PointsBet and as long as -130 at DraftKings.

The Bengals provide quite the test for the top-seeded Kansas City in the AFC title game. Cincinnati beat the Chiefs 27-24 in Week 13, but that game was in Cincinnati. This one will be in Kansas City. Of course, Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is going to be a major factor in how these AFC Championship odds move throughout the week. We have already seen the spread move as many as 4.5 points in the same direction at some sportsbooks, but is now back to where it opened.

If you think the Bengals will end the Chiefs’ season for a second straight year, you’ll want to bet Cincinnati at FanDuel Sportsbook, where they’re getting +114 odds to win.

Here are some more notes on the AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 26] The pendulum that is the AFC Championship odds has swung back in Kansas City’s direction. After Patrick Mahomes was seen jogging around on the practice field Wednesday, we saw our first shift in the Chiefs’ direction, moving the spread back to Cincinnati -1. But as of Thursday afternoon, Kansas City is back to being the favorite in Sunday’s AFC title game.
• [January 24] Less than 48 hours after the AFC title matchup was set, we have seen the spread move as much as 4.5 points at some sportsbooks. While Kansas City opened as the favorite over the Bengals in Sunday’s game, we are now seeing every sportsbook list Cincinnati as the favorite, with some as heavy as two-point favorites.
• [January 23] It took less than 24 hours after the matchup for the AFC Championship was set for sportsbooks to move the spread for Cincinnati vs Kansas City to a pick. Both Caesars and BetRivers have made the move while FanDuel is the only sportsbook still holding at Chiefs -1.5 as of Monday afternoon.
• [January 22] The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals will meet in the AFC Championship on Sunday, January 29. Some sportsbooks opened the spread at Kansas City -2.5, others came in at KC -1.5. The spread continues to move towards a pick as we near the end of the day. The Chiefs are now given -120 odds to win the AFC Championship, while the Bengals are given +100 odds.
• [January 8] After locking up the no. 1 seed in the AFC, the Chiefs head into the playoffs with the best odds to win the AFC Championship.
• [November 15] In spite of back-to-back losses, which has seen them fall out of the top spot in the AFC, the Bills remain the favorites to win the conference. Their odds have faded slightly to +200, with the Chiefs right behind them at +220.
• [October 4] The Broncos, who were once around +850 odds to win the AFC, are now as long as +1800 after losing to the previously-winless Raiders in Week 4. The Bills and Chiefs continue to battle for the best odds, with Buffalo currently on top.
• [September 13] The Broncos, Bengals, Titans, and Raiders all saw their AFC Championship odds dip after disappointing losses in Week 1. The Bills remain heavy favorites, but Kansas City’s impressive performance in their win over the Cardinals has resulted in the Chiefs hanging around the top of the board.
• [August 18] With the NFL announcing an 11-game suspension for Deshaun Watson, Cleveland’s odds to win the AFC Championship have faded from +1200 to +2000. It is believed Jacoby Brissett will now be leading the Browns into the 2022 NFL season, although a Jimmy Garoppolo trade may be on the way.
• [March 23] The Chiefs saw their AFC Championship odds fade from +450 to +500 after trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. Miami goes from +3000 to +2000 odds, but they’re still near the bottom of the board. Indianapolis’ odds movement stemming from their acquisition of Matt Ryan is more notable, as the Colts went from +1600 to +1300, tying them with the Titans for the eighth-best odds.
• [March 18] Cleveland has won the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and their odds have improved from +1800 to +900 as a result. They are now a top five contender to win the AFC Championship with Watson under center. The Raiders’ odds to win the AFC Championship only improved from +3000 to +2500 after acquiring Davante Adams from the Packers. Las Vegas adds a huge weapon to their arsenal, but still have to get through an AFC West that includes the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers.
• [March 12] After acquiring Khalil Mack from the Bears, the LA Chargers saw their AFC Championship odds improve from +1400 to +1000. The Browns, on the other hand, saw no odds movement resulting from their acquisition of Amari Cooper.
• [March 9] With Russell Wilson being traded to the Broncos in a blockbuster deal, Denver’s odds to win the AFC Championship improved from +1200 to +650, the third-best odds in the conference. Wilson’s move to the AFC has also resulted in Kansas City, a fellow AFC West team who will see Wilson twice this season, no longer being the favorites to win the AFC. Buffalo, who has a much easier path to the top seed, and therefore homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, is now listed as the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
• [February 24] The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have opened as the co-favorites to win the AFC Championship in the 2022-23 NFL season. It is different everywhere you look, though. Some sportsbooks have the Bills listed as favorites, and others have the Chiefs. The Bengals have opened with pretty short +650 odds to win the AFC Championship after their improbable Super Bowl run last season. The Broncos are enjoying shorter odds to win the conference than most would suspect, listed at +1100 and fifth-best on the board, largely due to the possibility of them landing Aaron Rodgers this offseason.

2022-23 NFC Championship Odds

[sbd-amchart event=”nfc-championship” title=”Top 2023 NFC Championship Contenders”]

Closing 2023 NFC Championship Odds

Below is how the NFC Championship odds shaped up in the week leading up to the game.

San Francisco entered the playoffs as the favorite to win the NFC Championship, after Philadelphia had spent the majority of the season atop the odds board. The 49ers were also favored ahead of the NFL Divisional Round, but Philadelphia’s win over the Giants, and some inconsistent play from Brock Purdy against the Cowboys, sees the Eagles back to being the favorites to win the NFC Championship.

The two teams will meet at 3pm ET on Sunday, January 29. As the home team, Philadelphia opened as two-point favorites. Some sportsbooks opened them at 2.5-point favorites and as of Monday afternoon, everyone else has joined at 2.5. We have seen a couple sportsbooks move to Eagles -3 as of Sunday afternoon.

The Eagles’ odds to win the NFC Championship are listed as short as -160 at Caesars and as long as -150 at DraftKings. The 49ers odds to win are as long as +135 at Caesars and as short as +125 at PointBet.

Here are some more notes on the NFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 22] After the Eagles beat the Giants in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, securing the NFC Championship game being held in Philadelphia, they became the favorites to win the NFC title again. Their odds are listed at an average of -139, while the 49ers are given +118 odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
• [January 8] San Francisco enters the playoffs as the favorite to win the NFC Championship, in spite of the Eagles locking up the no. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers took over as the favorites after Week 17.
• [November 15] The Eagles remain the favorites to win the NFC after suffering their first loss in Week 10.
• [October 4] The Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the favorites to win the NFC Championship. The Eagles remain undefeated after a Week 4 victory over the Jaguars, while the Bucs are coming off a bad loss to the Chiefs.
• [September 13] The Buccaneers remain the favorites to win the NFC Championship after beating the Cowboys in Week 1, but the rest of the top four differs depending which sportsbook you’re looking at. Some have the Rams second, while others still list the Packers with the second-best odds. Both teams suffered very demoralizing losses in Week 1. Then the Eagles are tied for the third-best odds at some sportsbooks, but listed fourth at others.
• [March 18] Both the Saints and Falcons have missed out on acquiring Deshaun Watson, as the QB has chosen Cleveland as his preferred destination. New Orleans and Atlanta now go back to +2000 and +4000, respectively.
• [March 17] Despite trading away Davante Adams, Green Bay’s odds only went from +425 to +450. Tampa Bay saw their odds improve slightly as a result, going from +400 to +375. The Cleveland Browns have been notified that they’re out of the running for Deshaun Watson, leaving the Saints and Falcons. New Orleans is believed to be the favorite, and have seen their NFC Championship odds improve from +2200 to +850 as a result. Atlanta has gone from +4000 to +1500 as they are the other option for Watson.
• [March 13] The Buccaneers’ NFC Championship odds had gotten as long as +1400, but Tampa Bay is now the favorite after Tom Brady announced he is unretiring and returning to the Bucs for another season. Brady’s return saw Tampa Bay’s odds improve from +1400 to +375, but can be found as shrt as +300. New Orleans’ odds faded from +1800 to +2200 as well.
• [March 9] After Aaron Rodgers announced he will be returning to the Green Bay Packers for the 2022-23 NFL season, the Packers immediately became the favorites to win the NFC Championship. Green Bay’s NFC title odds improved from +600, third-best, to +400, leaping the 49ers and Rams on the board. We have also seen Tampa Bay’s odds take a big hit, going from +850 to +1400 with rumors of Tom Brady’s return softening. Seattle saw the biggest movement, though, fading from +1800 to +3500 after the team traded away Russell Wilson.
• [March 1] With rumors of Tom Brady potentially still wanting to play, we’ve seen the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds improve from +1200 to +850.
• [February 24] The Rams, who won the Super Bowl last season, have opened as the favorites to win the 2023 NFC Championship. They are listed as slight favorites over the 49ers, Packers, and Cowboys, who are all given +650 odds or better. These four are clearly in their own tier as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will be without Tom Brady this season, and Arizona Cardinals come in next on the board at +1200 odds to win the NFC Championship.

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2021-22 AFC Championship Odds

[sbd-amchart event=”afc-championship” season=”2021-2022″ title=”Top 2022 AFC Championship Contenders”]

The Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC Championship, but were never favored to win the conference. The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC Championship, and spent all season among the top contenders. Take a look at how the 2022 NFL Conference futures changed below.

Closing 2022 AFC Championship Odds

Odds as of January 27

Here are some notes on the AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 30] The Cincinnati Bengals have won the AFC Championship, upsetting the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime. Cincinnati will represent the AFC in Super Bow 56 against the LA Rams.
• [January 23] The Chiefs beat the Bills 42-36 in one of the best football games of all-time, advancing Kansas City to the AFC Championship game. Kansas City will host the Bengals on Sunday, January 30, and the home team has opened as 6.5-point favorites. Kansas City’s odds to win the game (and the AFC title) are -310, with the Bengals listed at +245 on the moneyline.
• [January 22] The Bengals upset the Titans in the first game of the NFL Divisional Round, advancing them to the AFC Championship game next weekend. Cincinnati’s AFC Championship odds were +550 entering today, but only improved to +225 with the win. Sportsbooks are obviously viewing Joe Burrow and company as 7(ish)-point underdogs in either Buffalo or Kansas City next weekend. Both the Bills and Chiefs saw their odds to win the AFC Championship improve with Tennessee being eliminated.
• [January 16] The Bills’ odds to win the AFC Championship improved from +350 to +225 after demolishing the Patriots on Wildcard Weekend. Buffalo now has the second-best odds to win the AFC title, surpassing the Titans.
• [January 10] With the Bengals drawing the Raiders in the NFL wildcard round of the playoffs, Cincinnati’s odds to win the AFC Championship improved from +900 to +650. New England’s AFC title odds fell from +750 to +900 thanks to their loss to the Dolphins in Week 18, which results in them falling to the 6-seed in the AFC and having to play the Bills in the first round.
• [January 2] Despite losing to the Bengals in Week 17 and giving up the AFC’s top seed to the Titans, the Chiefs remain the favorites to win the AFC. Kansas City’s AFC championship odds did fade from +175 to +225 after Sunday’s results, though. Tennessee’s conference championship odds improved from +850 to +500. With the win, Cincinnati’s odds improved from +1400 to +900.
• [December 26] After beating the Patriots to take over the AFC East again, the Bills are also back to having the second-best odds to win the AFC.
• [December 19] A Colts win over the Patriots, paired with a Titans loss in Pittsburgh, has seen Indianapolis surpass Tennessee for the fourth-best odds to win the AFC Championship. Buffalo’s Week 15 win over the Panthers also sees them tied with the Pats for the second-best odds.
• [December 12] The Bills still have the third-best odds to win the AFC after losing to the Bucs in overtime. The Chiefs blowout of the Raiders in Week 14 sees there AFC Championship odds improve from +300 to +225. Cleveland saw their odds improve from +2500 to +1400 after beating the Ravens.
• [December 6] After beating the Bills on Monday Night Football of Week 13, the Patriots are now listed as co-favorites to win the AFC Championship alongside the Chiefs. New England’s odds improved from +450 to +300 with the win. Buffalo is still third on the board after their AFC Championship odds faded from +350 to +500.
• [November 29] The Chiefs have taken over as the favorites to win the AFC Championship while on their bye. New England, after winning their sixth straight game, now have the third-best odds to win the AFC. Tennessee’s AFC Championship odds have faded from +800 to +1200 after losing to the Patriots in Week 12. The Chargers saw the most movement, going from +900 to +1600, after being upset by the Broncos.
• [November 22] The Bills and Chiefs are now listed as co-favorites to win the AFC Championship. This comes after Buffalo was embarrassed at home by the Colts, and the Chiefs beat the Cowboys to mark their fourth straight win. Tennessee saw their odds fade from +500 to +800 after being upset by the Texans, which allowed the Patriots to jump into the top four contenders.
• [November 14] Despite also losing in Week 10, the Ravens saw their odds improve to +500 thanks to division mates Cleveland and Pittsburgh going 0-1-1 on Sunday.  The Bills stayed at +250 after destroying the Jets, as expected.
• [November 8] The Bills remain the favorites to win the AFC Championship, despite being upset by the lowly Jaguars in Week 9. The Titans saw their AFC Championship odds improve significantly after beating the Rams and taking over the top seed in the conference. They now have the second-best odds to make the Super Bowl.
• [November 2] The Titans’ AFC Championship odds faded slightly with the news that Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury.
• [October 31] The Browns’ odds to win the AFC Championship have reached +2500 after another loss in Week 8, this time to the Steelers. The Chargers remain a top five contender after losing to the Patriots.
• [October 25] The Chiefs see their AFC Championship odds fade to +650, allowing the Ravens, who were also blown out in Week 7, to surpass them for the second-best odds to win the conference. Cincinnati saw their odds improve from +5000 to +1600 after beating Baltimore.
• [October 19] The Bills are still given the best odds to win the AFC Championship despite being upset by the Titans in Week 6. Tennessee’s AFC Championship odds improved to +1200 after the win.
• [October 11] For the first time this season, the Chiefs are not favorites to win the AFC Championship. Kansas City’s conference championship odds have faded to +350 after losing 38-20 to the Bills, who have taken over as the new favorite.
• [October 4] The Broncos AFC Championship odds took a big hit after a tough outing against the Ravens in Week 4.
• [September 26] Despite dropping to 1-2 after their second straight loss, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the favorites to win the AFC Championship.
• [September 20] The Chiefs still have the best odds to win the AFC Championship after being upset by the Ravens in Week 2. The Raiders odds improved from +4000 to +2200 thanks to a win over the Steelers and a 2-0 start to the season.
• [September 13] The Bills still have the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship after being upset by the Steelers in Week 1. The Chargers and Broncos both saw their odds improve significantly after impressive wins in Week 1.
• [August 31] New England’s odds to win the AFC Championship did not change after cutting former NFL MVP Cam Newton, putting Mac Jones in the starting role for Week 1
• [August 17] Despite a good outing in Week 1 of the NFL Preseason, the Broncos have seen their odds to win the AFC Championship fade from +1600 to +2000, dropping from the seventh-best odds to the tenth-best
• [July 24] Denver’s AFC Championship odds continue to fade as the team has continued to stay put with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
• [June 7] Tennessee’s odds to win the AFC improved from +1800 to +1200 after trading for wide receiver Julio Jones. The Titans are now tied for the fifth-best odds in the conference.
• [May 3] Denver’s odds to win the AFC Championship jumped from +2800 to +1200 thanks to the rumors connecting them to Green Bay’s disgruntled quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
• [April 23] The Bills have overtaken the Ravens for the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship. Cleveland’s odds have also shortened significantly, going from as long as +1200 to +900 after also adding Jadeveon Clowney.
• [March 14] After completely retooling their offense via free agency – Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, and Nelson Agholor, among others – the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC Championship improved from around +2100 to +1800.
• [February 22] The Colts’ odds to win the AFC Championship improved slightly after trading for Carson Wentz to replace Philip Rivers under center.
• [February 7] The Kansas City Chiefs have opened as the favorites to win the 2022 AFC Championship. They have won the conference each of the last two years.

2021-22 NFC Championship Odds

[sbd-amchart event=”nfc-championship” season=”2021-2022″ title=”Top 2022 NFC Championship Contenders”]

Closing 2022 NFC Championship Odds

Odds as of January 27

Here are some notes on the NFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 30] The Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 to win the NFC Championship. They will represent the NFC in Super Bowl 56 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
• [January 23] The Rams continued the upsets in the NFL Divisional Round, beating Tampa Bay 30-27. With the win, LA will now host the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. The Rams have opened as 3.5-point favorites, with -165 odds to win the conference title and advance to the 2022 Super Bowl.
• [January 22] The Green Bay Packers, who were the favorites to win the NFC Championship entering the weekend, were upset by the 49ers in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The Packers’ early exit temporarily leaves San Francisco with the best odds to win the NFC title, as they improved from +500 to +140. If the Buccaneers take down the Rams on Sunday, they will almost certainly be listed as favorites against the 49ers in the conference championship. If the Rams win, we could see San Francisco listed as road dogs next weekend.
• [January 17] San Francisco’s NFC Championship odds improved to +550 after upsetting the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Wild Card Weekend. They were as long as +1100 heading into their matchup with the Cowboys. The Rams saw their odds to win the 2022 NFC title move from +650 to +330 thanks to their 34-11 victory over the Cardinals.
• [January 10] The 49ers’ odds to win the NFC Championship improved from +1800 to +1000 after clinching a playoff berth with a Week 18 win over the Rams, setting themselves up for a wildcard matchup with the Cowboys. The Bucs moved up to the 2-seed in the NFC, and are back to having the second-best odds to win the NFC Championship.
• [January 4] With the Packers locking up the top seed in the NFC entering the playoffs, their NFC Championship odds improved from +200 to +175. The Buccaneers’ struggles against the Jets in Week 17 has seen their NFC title odds fade, allowing the Rams to overtake them for the second-best odds on the board.
• [December 26] With the Cowboys pounding Washington in Week 16, and clinching the NFC East title, their odds to win the NFC improved from +600 to +450, tying them with the Rams for the third-best odds. The Cardinals saw their odds. fade all the way to +1000 after being upset by the Colts, giving away the NFC West lead to the Rams.
• [December 20] Green Bay has taken over as the favorite to win the NFC Championship after Week 15. The Packers clinched the NFC North and took over the top seed in the conference after beating they beat the Ravens and the Buccaneers lost to the Saints.
• [December 13] With the Cardinals losing in Week 14, the Packers and Buccaneers leap them in the NFC standings. Green Bay now occupies the top seed in the conference and see their odds to win the NFC improve from +350 to +300. They still trail the Buccaneers, whose odds have reached +250 now.
• [December 5] In spite of being upset by the Seahawks in Week 13, the 49ers’ NFC Championship odds have yet to worsen. The Cardinals win over the Bears didn’t see their odds move much, but Green Bay did leap them for second-best odds while the Packers were on bye.
• [November 22] The Eagles saw their NFC Championship odds improve from +6000 to +2800 after beating the Saints, tying them for the sixth-best odds in the conference.
• [November 14] Favored Tampa Bay faded to +300 thanks to a setback to the Washington Football Team as 9.5-point favorites. Second-favorite, the LA Rams, improved from +450 to +350 thanks to Tampa’s stumble. Arizona’s  stunning 34-10 home loss to Carolina dropped the Cardinals from third-favorite to fifth-favorite at +500.
• [November 8] The Saints’ NFC Championship odds took a big hit, going from as short as +1600 to as long as +2500 after being upset by the Falcons in Week 9. The Cowboys and Packers did not see their odds worsen much after poor performances on Sunday. Green Bay’s odds are likely saved by the fact that Aaron Rodgers did not play.
• [November 2] Some sportsbooks are listing the Rams as the co-favorites to win the NFC Championship, alongside the Buccaneers, after acquiring Von Miller from the Broncos.
• [October 31] The Buccaneers remain the favorites to win the NFC Championship, despite losing to the Saints in Week 8. The Cowboys now have the second-best odds after pulling out a win without Dak Prescott under center.
• [October 29] The Packers jumped back into the top three contenders in NFC Championship odds after handing the Cardinals their first loss of the season. Green Bay’s odds improved from +600 to +450. Arizona faded from +450 to +550.
• [October 18] The 6-0 Cardinals are finally among the top three contenders in the odds to win the NFC Championship, surpassing the Packers for third on the list.
• [October 11] The Seahawks’ NFC Championship odds have been crushed with Russell Wilson badly spraining his finger in Week 5. Seattle’s quarterback is expected to miss a handful of weeks.
• [October 4] The Cardinals’ NFC Championship odds have improved significantly after beating the Rams in Week 4. However, they’re still only a top four contender, as the Rams’ odds didn’t fade much at all.
• [September 26] The Tampa Bay Buccaneers still have the best odds to win the NFC Championship, even though they lost to the Rams in Week 3. LA’s odds improved after the win, separating them from the 49ers and Packers on the board.
• [September 13] The Packers’ NFC Championship odds didn’t worsen much after being demolished by the Saints in Week 1. The Rams have the second-best odds to win the conference after an impressive win over the Bears on SNF. Philadelphia saw the biggest movement, going from as long as +5000 to +2500, after hammering the Falcons.
• [August 17] The Packers have leaped the Rams and 49ers in the NFC Championship odds with Aaron Rodgers ready to start Week 1.
• [July 26] Green Bay’s odds to win the NFC have gone from +1800 to +800 with the news of Aaron Rodgers planning to play for the Packers this season.
• [July 24] The Minnesota Vikings have seen their NFC Championship odds improve to +1400 as Green Bay’s odds continue to fall because of Aaron Rodgers’ firm stance on not playing for the Packers in 2021.
• [May 3] Green Bay’s odds to win the NFC Championship have faded from +500 to +1000 due to Aaron Rodgers’ future with the team being very uncertain.
• [April 23] The Panthers odds have fallen way off with the team’s solution at quarterback being Sam Darnold, not Deshaun Watson. Carolina was as short as +1800 while they were reportedly in discussions to make a big splash at QB, but are now a distant +2500.
• [March 14] The Saints’ odds to win the NFC conference faded after Drew Brees announced his retirement, leaving Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston as New Orleans’ options under center
• [March 13] After re-signing many of their key players from their Super Bowl-winning team, the Buccaneers have broken away as the favorites to win the NFC Championship.
• [February 7] The Buccaneers and Packers opened as co-favorites to win the NFC Championship in 2022. The two teams met in the NFC Championship last season.

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Top 2020-21 AFC Championship Contenders

The Chiefs went on to win the AFC Championship for a second straight year in 2021, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC Championship in Tom Brady’s first season with the team. You can look back at how the 2021 NFL Conference odds changed after Brady signed with the Bucs, as well as every other major event of the 2020-21 NFL season below.

• [January 24] Kansas City has beaten Buffalo to win their second straight AFC Championship
• [January 18] The Chiefs will host the Bills in the AFC Championship on Sunday, January 24. Due to the uncertainty around Patrick Mahomes’ status after the QB left Kansas City’s Divisional Round matchup against the Browns with a concussion, the Chiefs’ AFC Championship odds have only improved to -154. Buffalo is listed at an average of +133
• [January 11] The Browns upset the Steelers in Wild Card Weekend, but now have to head to Kansas City in the Divisional Round. As a result, their AFC Championship odds did improve from +2325 to +1400, but they still have the worst odds in the conference
• [January 4, 2021] The Chiefs enter the 2021 NFL playoffs as the odds-on favorites to win the AFC Championship, though their odds have worsened slightly each of the last two weeks with Baltimore and Buffalo looking like quality competition. Indianapolis’ AFC Championship odds took a hit after locking themselves into the seven-seed in the AFC and booking a trip to Buffalo in Wild Card Weekend. The Colts’ odds fell from +1725 to +2000
• [December 29] The Browns’ AFC Championship odds took a big hit after losing to the Jets in Week 16. Cleveland went from an average of +1700 to +2650
• [December 22] After suffering their third straight loss, the latest coming against the lowly Bengals on Monday night of Week 15, the Steelers’ AFC Championship odds have plummeted from +575, the third-best in the conference, to +1100, the fourth-best odds
• [December 15] The Bills handed the Steelers their second loss of the season in Week 14, and have overtaken them for the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship, only trailing the Chiefs. Buffalo’s odds improved from +813 to +563, while Pittsburgh went from +380 to +575 after back-to-back losses
• [December 9] After Pittsburgh lost their first game of the season, Kansas City, who already was the favorite, has become the odds-on favorite to win the AFC Championship
• [December 3] The Colts entered Week 12 with the third-best odds to win the AFC Championship (average of +988), but saw their odds plummet to +1500, the fifth-best, after losing to the Titans and giving away the division lead
• [November 23] Baltimore’s AFC Championship odds faded from +600, the third-best in the conference, to +1050, the fourth-best, after losing to the Titans in Week 11. Also, the New York Jets became the first team eliminated from playoff contention
• [November 16] The Dolphins have overtaken the Raiders for seventh-best odds to win the AFC Championship after Week 10; Baltimore’s odds faded from +483 to +600 after being upset by New England, but still hold the third-best odds in the conference
• [November 10] Miami’s odds to win the AFC Championship have gone from +6500 to +2725 in the two weeks since Tua Tagovailoa took over
• [November 2] A win over the Ravens in Week 8 resulted in the Steelers overtaking Baltimore for the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship
• [October 26] The Steelers’ AFC Championship odds improved from +563 to +416 after beating the Titans to become the NFL’s only undefeated team after Week 7
• [October 20] After being blown out by the Steelers, the Browns’ AFC Championship odds have worsened from +1500 to +2400
• [October 14] After beating the Bills, the Titans now have the fourth-best odds to win the AFC, improving from +1525 to +950
• [October 6] A loss to the Chiefs in Week 4 resulted in the Patriots’ AFC Championship odds fading to +1550, the seventh-best in the conference
• [September 29] After the Chiefs handily beat the Ravens in Week 3, Kansas City has separated themselves as the sole favorite to win the AFC Championship
• [September 22] The Chiefs and Ravens are listed as co-favorites to win the AFC Championship ahead of their Week 3 matchup; the Steelers’ odds improved from +1038 to +925, the third-best odds in the AFC
• [September 15] Indianapolis’ AFC Championship odds faded to +1650, seventh-best, after being upset by the Jaguars in Week 1; the Browns also saw their odds take a big hit, going from +1725 to +2825 after being dominated by the Ravens
• [September 8] The Colts and Patriots are tied for the third-best odds to win the AFC after New England’s odds faded from +900 to +1125
• [July 28] With many Patriots deciding to opt out of the 2020 NFL season, including Dont’a Hightower and Marcus Cannon, among others, their odds to make Super Bowl 55 have slipped from +850 to +900; the Bills’ odds have improved from +1375 to +1250
• [June 29] New England’s odds to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 55 improved from +1150 to +850 after signing Cam Newton
• [May 26] The Patriots’ AFC Championship odds continue to fade after losing Tom Brady, and not acquiring any of the quarterbacks on the market, now landing at +1150, just in front of the Colts and Bills for third-best
• [April 27] After a solid 2020 NFL Draft, the Baltimore Ravens closed the gap between them and Kansas City, seeing their odds shorten from +376 to +348; the Raiders, on the other hand, saw their odds fade from +2150 to +2375
• [April 22] The Philip Rivers-led Colts are a popular pre-draft bet and have seen their odds shorten from +1600 to +1250
• [March 24] Despite a pretty quiet free agency, the Steelers see their odds to make Super Bowl 55 continue to improve, now sitting at +1350, the fifth-best in the AFC
• [March 18] With Tom Brady heading south, the Patriots AFC Championship odds have plummeted from +600 to +1000; the Texans saw similar movement after trading DeAndre Hopkins, as well
• [March 3] The Chiefs have opened as the favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 55; the Patriots have opened at +600, much longer than the +400 odds they opened with last season

Closing 2021 AFC Championship Odds

Odds updated January 18

AFC Contenders by Division

Top 2020-21 NFC Championship Contenders

• [January 24] Tampa Bay has upset Green Bay to win the NFC Championship
• [January 18] The Packers are now the odds-on favorites to win the NFC Championship after handling the Rams in the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL playoffs. Green Bay will host the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game, after Tampa Bay upset New Orleans
• [January 11] The Rams upset the Seahawks in the NFC Wild Card and have seen their NFC Championship odds go from +1275 to +775. They have the worst odds among remaining teams, as they have to go to Green Bay in the next round
• [January 4] The Buccaneers’ NFC Championship odds improved from +506 to +418 after drawing the Washington Football Team on Wild Card Weekend. The LA Rams saw their odds fade from +1075 to +1275 thanks to their first-round matchup in Seattle and the uncertainty around Jared Goff’s availability
• [December 28] The Rams lost their second straight game and gave away the NFC West title in Week 16. As a result, their odds to win the NFC Championship have faded from +625 to +1075
• [December 21] The Saints lost to the Chiefs in Week 15, giving the Packers a full game lead for the top seed in the NFC. They also hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans. As a result, the Saints’ NFC Championship odds fell from +279 to +334, while the Packers’ odds improved from +259 to +195, the shortest odd any team has had to this point. The Los Angeles Rams’ odds fell from +450 to +625 after losing to the Jets, giving the Seahawks the lead back in the NFC West
• [December 14] Thanks to the Saints loss to the Eagles in Week 14, the Packers have now taken over the number one seed in the NFC. For the first time this season, Green Bay has the best odds to win the NFC Championship, seeing their odds improve from +331 to +259, while the Saints fell from +209 to +279
• [December 9] The Seahawks have dropped out of the top three contenders after losing to the Giants in Week 13. Seattle’s odds fell from +375 to +600, seeing Green Bay and Los Angeles (Rams) leap them
• [December 1] A big win over the Rams in Week 12 has resulted in the 49ers’ NFC Championship odds improving from an average of +5900 to +3750, tied for seventh-best. Back-to-back losses for the Bucs has seen their odds fall from +494 to +675
• [November 24] After Week 11, there are five teams in the NFC with better than 6-1 odds to win the conference championship: New Orleans, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Los Angeles (Rams)
• [November 17] As Seattle’s struggles continue – they’ve now lost three of their last four – their NFC Championship odds are starting to see major movement; the Seahawks entered Week 10 with +400 odds, the second-best in the NFC, but are now listed at +725, the fourth-best. New Orleans remains the favorite despite Drew Brees set to miss a little bit of time
• [November 9] The Saints not only handed the Buccaneers a sound beating in Week 9, but also overtook them as the favorites to win the NFC Championship
• [November 3] The Rams NFC Championship odds fell from +850 to +1225 after a bad loss to the Dolphins in Week 8
• [October 27] With the Seahawks suffering their first loss of the season in Week 7, and the Bucs putting forth another strong performance, Tampa Bay now has the best odds to win the NFC Championship
• [October 20] Tampa Bay has the second-best average odds to win the NFC Championship after handing Green Bay their first loss of the season in Week 6
• [October 13] Two of the early-season top contenders, the 49ers and Cowboys, have seen their NFC Championship odds plummet after Week 5; the former is due to a 2-3 start with a bad loss to the Dolphins, while the latter is due to the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott
• [October 6] A 4-0 start has resulted in the Packers improving to the second-best odds to win the NFC Championship; Week 4 losses saw the Cowboys and 49ers odds fade to sixth and seventh-best, respectively
• [September 28] The 3-0 Seahawks are favored to win the NFC Championship for the first time this season; the Packers saw their odds improve from +775 to +617, tied for second-best, after beating the Saints
• [September 22] Despite being upset by the Raiders in Week 2, the Saints remain the slight favorites to win the NFC Championship; the Seahawks now have the second-best odds in the conference
• [September 15] For the first time this year, the 49ers are not favored to win the NFC Championship after losing Week 1 to the Cardinals, who are now among the top seven contenders with their odds improving from +2350 to +1375; the Saints now have the best odds
• [September 8] Dallas’ NFC Championship odds continue to improve ahead of kickoff, now listed at an average of +713, just behind the Bucs for third-best in the conference
• [July 28] After acquiring Jamal Adams, the Seahawks’ NFC Championship odds have improved from +1075 to +950, entering the top five contenders
• [June 29] Dallas’ NFC Championship odds have improved from +938 to +825 simply due to money coming in
• [May 26] Green Bay’s odds continue to fade, moving from +1150 to +1300, tied with Minnesota for seventh-best
• [April 27] Sportsbooks didn’t like the Bears’ draft, as their odds worsened from +1700 to +1900; the Rams saw the biggest improvement, jumping from +1750 to +1600
• [April 22] The Bucs made another big offseason splash, acquiring recently retired TE Rob Gronkowski, who will come out of retirement to play reunite with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay
• [March 24] The hype created from the Cardinals getting DeAndre Hopkins has died down, as Arizona’s NFC Championship odds continue to fade, landing at +2650
• [March 18] After landing Tom Brady in free agency, the Bucs are now a top three contender to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC
• [March 3] The Saints and 49ers have opened as co-favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 55

Closing 2021 NFC Championship Odds

Odds updated January 18

NFC Contenders by Division

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Top 2019-20 AFC Championship Contenders

The Chiefs and 49ers won the AFC and NFC Championships, respectively.

• [January 20] The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC Championship and will head to Miami for Super Bowl 54
• [January 12] The AFC Championship game is set, as the Tennessee Titans will take on the Kansas City Chiefs; Tennessee’s odds have improved from an average of +2500, when the playoffs started, to +270 heading into the conference championship
• [January 6] With the Patriots being eliminated by the Titans during Wild Card Weekend, the Ravens saw their odds to make Super Bowl 54 get even shorter
• [December 30] The Patriots saw their odds to make Super Bowl 54 worsen from +258 to +588 after a loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 cost them a first-round bye in the playoffs
• [December 23] Despite locking up home-field advantage in the playoffs, the Ravens’ odds to make it to Super Bowl 54 did not change
• [December 17] Despite currently holding the final playoff spot in the AFC, the Steelers have worse odds to make Super Bowl 54 than the Titans
• [December 9] For the first time this season, Baltimore is now shorter than even-money (-103). They effectively have a 1.5-game cushion on the Patriots for the #1 seed (a one-game lead plus the head-to-head tiebreaker).
• [December 2] The Ravens are now the favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 54 after downing the Niners in Week 13; the Patriots loss to the Texans has sent their odds to +170, the longest they’ve been since September 10
• [November 26] With the Ravens posting another impressive win, the Patriots remain favored to win the AFC, but are no longer seen as odds-on favorites
• [November 19] After a dreadful performance in Week 11 against the Browns, the Steelers’ average odds to reach Super Bowl 54 went from +1700, which were the fifth-best entering the week, to +7500
• [November 11] For the first time this season, the Chiefs do not have the second-best odds to win the AFC; the Ravens have claimed that title after a dominant performance in Week 10 paired with a Chiefs loss
• [November 4] Despite suffering their first loss of the season in Week 9, the Patriots are still odds-on favorites to make Super Bowl 54
• [October 29] After another loss, the Chiefs’ odds to make the Super Bowl have reached an average of +650, the worst odds they’ve seen all year
• [October 22] The Colts saw their average odds to win the AFC Championship improve from +2000 to +1300 after beating the Texans in Week 7
• [October 14] Thanks to a perfect 6-0 start and back-to-back losses from the Chiefs, the Patriots are now odds-on favorites to win the AFC
• [October 8] After knocking off the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, the Colts average odds to win the AFC went from +3500 to +1700
• [October 1] After upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore, the Browns have the third-best odds to win the AFC again
• [September 23] A 1-2 start has resulted in the Chargers falling from the top three contenders, seeing the Ravens and Texans overtake them
• [September 17] With Ben Roethlisberger done for the season, the Steelers saw their AFC Championship odds fade from an average of +1225 to +2300
• [September 10] After a dominant performance against the Steelers on SNF, the Patriots are getting closer to having EVEN odds to win the AFC Championship
• [August 25] Indy plummeted after Andrew Luck’s retirement, going from +674 to +2333. The Steelers (+923) replaced the Colts in the top five.
• [July 18] The Colts have overtaken the Browns for the third-best odds to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl
• [March 13] The New England Patriots have opened as the favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 54.

Closing 2020 AFC Championship Odds

Odds taken January 12

AFC Contenders by Division

Top 2019-20 NFC Championship Contenders

• [January 20] The San Francisco 49ers will represent the NFC in Super Bowl 54 after beating the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship
• [January 12] The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will square off in the NFC Championship; on average, the Niners are listed as -308 favorites to advance
• [January 6] After the Saints were knocked out by the Vikings, the 49ers are being given EVEN odds to reach Super Bowl 54
• [December 30] In the last two weeks, Seattle’s NFC Championship odds have gone from +325 to +1125 thanks to back-to-back losses, where the Week 17 loss cost them the NFC West title
• [December 24] After clinching the NFC North with a win over the Vikings in Week 16, Green Bay is back among the top three contenders in the NFC for the first time since November 18
• [December 17] After San Francisco was upset by Atlanta in Week 15, the Seahawks have taken over the top spot in the NFC West and the no. 1 seed in the NFC; Seattle has seen their odds to make Super Bowl 54 improve, but still trail the Saints and Niners
• [December 10] The 49ers took over the #1 seed in the NFC with a win in New Orleans. They also took over as conference favorites at +183.
• [December 3] The Vikings saw their NFC Championship odds fade from +751 to +1467 after losing to the Seahawks in Week 13, which likely means they’ll have to take to the road in the first round of the playoffs
• [November 26] For the first time this season, the Niners are favored to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl; their blowout victory over the Packers in Week 13 also sent Green Bay out of the top three contenders in the conference
• [November 18] A close loss to the Patriots sent the Eagles’ NFC Championship odds from +950 to +1300
• [November 12] After handing the Niners their first loss of the season, the Seahawks now have the fourth-best odds to win the NFC
• [November 5] Week 9 road losses saw both the Vikings and Packers’ odds to reach the Super Bowl fade, while the Eagles jumped back into the top five contenders
• [October 28] The Panthers’ NFC Championship odds faded from +1567 to +2767 after getting dismantled by the Niners in Week 8
• [October 21] Three straight wins has resulted in Minnesota being a top five contender to win the NFC for the first time this season
• [October 15] A 5-0 start has seen the Niners’ odds to win the NFC shorten from +1950 ahead of Week 1 to +583 after Week 6
• [September 30] After fading to +1000 following an injury to Drew Brees, the Saints are again the favorites to make the Super Bowl from the NFC, as Green Bay, Dallas, and Los Angeles (Rams) all lost in Week 4
• [September 24] A 1-2 start has seen the Eagles NFC championship odds fall from +800 to +1200, leaving them outside of the top seven for the first time this year
• [September 16] With Drew Brees reportedly set to miss six weeks due to a torn ligament in his thumb, the Saints NFC Championship odds faded all the way to +1000
• [September 10] After losing to the Packers in the season-opener, the Bears saw their NFC Championship odds fade from +720 to +975, dropping from fourth-best to seventh
• [May 27] The Saints and Rams continue to flip-flop at the top, with New Orleans re-claiming favorite status this time.
• [May 1] The LA Rams have overtaken the Saints as favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
• [March 13] The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams have opened as co-favorites to win the 2020 NFC Championship.

Closing 2020 NFC Championship Odds

Odds taken January 12

NFC Contenders by Division