NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 1: Back the Panthers Over the Bears

The 2026 NFL season is officially underway. Week 1 action kicked off Wednesday night with the Seattle Seahawks defeating the New England Patriots 13-10, and continued Thursday night in Australia, where the San Francisco 49ers defeated the Los Angeles Rams 27-7. There are 14 games left on the slate for bettors to look forward to.

The action kicks off Sunday at 1:00 PM ET with intriguing matchups like the Chicago Bears visiting the Carolina Panthers and the Buffalo Bills facing the Houston Texans. Every team taking the field on Sunday is fighting to secure an early edge in their respective division and conference ranks. The week’s schedule wraps up on Monday, September 14, at 8:15 PM ET when the Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

Keep reading for NFL odds, spreads, and an against-the-spread pick for every remaining game on the board, along with a detailed breakdown of my three best ATS picks to target.

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

All spread odds are provided by BetMGM and are current as of publication, though lines are subject to movement. Claim your BetMGM promo now.

Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 1

Here are my top NFL picks against the spread to kick off the new season.

NFL ATS Pick #1: Panthers +3 vs Bears

The Carolina Panthers open the 2026 season as home underdogs, presenting a prime opportunity to back them at +3. Week 1 can be weird. The Bears have been getting all the attention this offseason, but I believe the Panthers are live dogs in this one. While Chicago brings a hyped offense that averaged 25.6 points per game last year, Carolina’s defense quietly showed an improving trend down the stretch. The Panthers’ defense tallied 30 sacks and forced 20 total turnovers (15 interceptions and 5 fumble recoveries) last season, proving they can disrupt high-powered passing attacks.

In a Week 1 scenario where offenses often start slow, Carolina’s ability to control the clock and lean on a defense looking to establish its identity will be crucial. Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams faces a tough first road test of the year against a unit that has spent all offseason preparing for this matchup. Getting a full field goal at home for a defense that can generate takeaways makes Carolina a valuable side. I expect a physical, low-scoring game where the Panthers keep it within the number—and potentially win outright.

NFL Week 1 Pick: Panthers +3 (-110)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Colts +3.5 vs Ravens

Getting the Indianapolis Colts as home underdogs catching more than a field goal is arguably the best value on the Week 1 board. Last season, the Colts boasted an elite offense that averaged 27.2 points per game, outscoring the Baltimore Ravens (24.8 PPG). People forget how good the Colts were playing before Daniel Jones’s injury. The true separator in this matchup is red-zone efficiency. Indianapolis converted a stellar 65.2 percent of its red-zone trips into touchdowns last year, while Baltimore struggled mightily in that area, converting just 47.5 percent of the time.

The Colts’ defense is also built to contain Baltimore’s dynamic rushing attack. Indianapolis racked up 39 sacks last year and showed great discipline. When the field shrinks, Baltimore’s documented red-zone woes (only 28 conversions on 59 attempts last season) will haunt them against an Indianapolis team that executes flawlessly inside the 20-yard line. With home-field advantage and a more efficient scoring unit, the Colts are perfectly positioned to cover this spread of over a field goal.

NFL Week 1 Pick: Colts +3.5 (-115)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Vikings -1.5 vs Packers

The Minnesota Vikings find themselves as slight home favorites against the rival Green Bay Packers, and their defensive front is the main reason to lay the points. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to blitz, and his aggressive scheme will make a major impact in this one. Minnesota brings immense pressure, logging a staggering 49 sacks last season. That elite pass rush is exactly what is needed to disrupt Green Bay’s offensive rhythm and force the Packers into difficult third-and-long situations.

While Green Bay boasted a strong third-down efficiency last year, executing against a Minnesota front in this hostile environment will be a heavy test to open the year. The Vikings’ defense also forced 20 turnovers last year, and taking the field at U.S. Bank Stadium provides one of the best home-field advantages in the league. Furthermore, I am high on Minnesota’s offense to improve dramatically from last year with Kyler Murray now operating under head coach Kevin O’Connell. It’s a divisional matchup, and I believe Minnesota will get the cover at home.

NFL Week 1 Pick: Vikings -1.5 (-110)