NFL Week 2 Upset Predictions: 3 Moneyline Underdogs to Back
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Every Sunday, the NFL betting market inevitably misprices matchups, creating lucrative opportunities for those willing to look past the point spread. I am not just hunting for teams to cover; I want the underdogs with the statistical profiles and situational edges to win outright.
As I dive into Week 2’s full 16-game slate, the board features massive longshots, including the Miami Dolphins staring down a steep +650 moneyline in San Francisco and the Cleveland Browns catching 8.5 points at +340 in Tampa Bay.
While massive payouts make for tempting lottery tickets, the smartest moneyline values usually lie in tighter contests. I ran every game through my weighted prediction model to uncover the most-vulnerable favorites on the board. Let’s handicap the three underdogs best positioned to shock the league and deliver outright winners this week.
NFL Week 2 Upset Picks
My nine-signal weighted underdog model evaluates every team getting points on the moneyline against a mix of coaching history, current form, situational advantages, and more. The
Jacksonville Jaguars lead the pack this week with a massive 10-point score, separating themselves from the rest of the board by sweeping nearly every category. Meanwhile, the Falcons jump up the board thanks to a highly predictive divisional home-underdog spot, and the Steelers bring a strong coaching advantage into Foxborough.
Week 1 underdog picks went 1-2 (-0.5 units on 1-unit wagers). These signals are strongest from Week 4 onward, because a one- or two-game sample is too small to project season-long performance.
Upset Pick #1: Jaguars (+122 at Polymarket) over Broncos
The Jaguars check seven of my nine model signals, anchored by proven matchup superiority rather than early-season noise. This isn’t theoretical: Liam Coen took Jacksonville into Empower Field at Mile High in Week 16 last season and dominated Sean Payton’s squad 34–20 as a road underdog, building a 17-point lead behind a mistake-free offense.
After boasting one of the NFL’s elite run defenses in 2025 (85.6 rushing YPG allowed), the Jaguars picked up right where they left off in Week 1 (holding Cleveland to 87 yards). That front-seven discipline neutralizes Denver’s rushing attack, forcing Bo Nix into dropback situations against a Jacksonville pass rush that generated five sacks in the opener.
Coen’s offense has demonstrated remarkable ball security and road efficiency, going 6–2 away from home in 2025 while averaging 27.6 PPG. Jacksonville paired a +13 turnover differential last season with a +2 mark (0 giveaways) in Week 1, giving them a significant edge in high-leverage possessions over a Denver team that finished -3 in turnover margin last year.
Getting +122 plus-money on a proven road unit with schematic and turnover advantages makes Jacksonville one of Week 2’s premier underdog plays.
Upset Pick #2: Falcons (+122 at Kalshi) over Panthers
The Falcons trigger the model’s premier situational indicator: a home divisional underdog catching three points or fewer. Beyond the historical betting edge, Atlanta possesses a massive structural and schematic mismatch on the ground.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski brings a proven, zone-heavy rushing attack designed to punish light boxes, fitting seamlessly with Bijan Robinson. Robinson has torched the Panthers throughout his career, amassing 441 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and 6 touchdowns across their last four meetings, including 170- and 104-yard multi-touchdown performances.
They face a Carolina defensive front with chronic run-stopping issues, having allowed an NFL-worst 179.8 rushing YPG in 2024 before getting gouged for 291 rushing yards and 59 points in Week 1.
While Carolina’s Week 1 box score shows 353 passing yards, that volume was the byproduct of extreme trailing game script rather than offensive dominance.
Atlanta’s defense showed strong front-seven discipline by holding Pittsburgh to just 58 rushing yards in the opener. Backed by Stefanski’s veteran game management, home-field advantage, and an offensive line built to control the clock and wear down Carolina’s front, the Falcons at +122 offer outstanding moneyline value.
Upset Pick #3: Steelers (+213 at Polymarket) over Patriots
The Steelers enter Foxborough checking five model signals, offering immense value at a +213 price point (31.9% implied probability) that drastically undervalues Pittsburgh’s defensive formula.
The foundation of this upset rests on a massive structural mismatch: Pittsburgh’s ball-hawking pass rush against a developing Patriots offense. Generating defensive splash plays is Pittsburgh’s multi-year identity, not a one-week blip. The Steelers racked up 48 sacks and a +12 turnover differential in 2025 (after going +16 in 2024), giving them an NFL-best +29 turnover margin since 2024.
They picked up right where they left off in Week 1, racking up 4 sacks and forcing 2 turnovers. That front-seven pressure directly attacks New England’s biggest vulnerability after Drake Maye and the Patriots coughed up 3 giveaways in their 13–10 opening loss.
Mike McCarthy brings over 300 career games of play-calling experience (.601 career win rate), knowing how to shorten games, protect the football, and leverage field position in hostile road environments. Pittsburgh rarely needs to dominate the box score to win outright as an underdog – they thrive in low-scoring, one-possession grinds where sacks and short fields decide the outcome.
At longer than 2-to-1 odds, the Steelers represent Week 2’s highest-upside moneyline wager.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
