NFL Week 1 Upset Predictions – 3 Underdogs That Can Win Outright

Every Sunday, the NFL betting market inevitably misprices a few matchups, and my goal is to hunt down underdogs with the best chance to win outright, not just cover the spread.

Looking at the Week 1 slate, the board features several massive perceived mismatches – most notably the Arizona Cardinals facing a steep +400 moneyline and the Cleveland Browns sitting as heavy +340 road ‘dogs. However, I am not here to blindly throw darts at the longest odds. I am looking for calculated, statistically backed value.

Instead of chasing those extreme longshots, the smartest plays often hide in tighter contests. Could the New York Giants, sitting as +150 home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys, defend their turf?

Let’s dissect the three underdog picks with the strongest mathematical case to pull off an outright upset in the .

NFL Week 1 Upset Predictions

These picks are powered by a nine-signal weighted underdog model that evaluates historical coaching edges, team efficiency, and situational advantages. The Green Bay Packers lead this week’s board with eight weighted points, separating themselves from the pack by hitting five distinct signals. Due to the limited sample size of Week 1, all confidence ratings are strictly capped.

Since no current-season regular-season games have been played yet, the team-form signals are drawn from the 2025 regular season. Confidence is therefore capped at Medium because prior-season averages describe last year’s roster (though the two coaching signals are career figures and remain valid), and these signals are strongest from Week 4 onward.

Packers (+1.5) at Vikings: Road Dog With Ground Control

Best-available price: +113 (47¢) at Kalshi. Best sportsbook odds: +105 at DraftKings

The Green Bay Packers hit five distinct model signals (Signals 2, 3, 4, 6, 7) for an outright win. Backed by a 63.1% career win rate over 126 games, Matt LaFleur holds a coaching edge over Kevin O’Connell (61.4% in 70 games). Based on last season, Green Bay carries the superior team win percentage (.559 vs .529) and an aerial attack that averaged 226.2 passing yards per game, outpacing the 177.7 Minnesota allowed.

Most crucially, last year’s Packers averaged 119.8 rushing yards while allowing just 117.7, outperforming the Vikings’ 108.3 offensive and 124.1 defensive marks, maintaining a better turnover margin (+0.06 vs -0.53).

Conversely, Minnesota holds the pass-rushing edge (2.88 sacks per game vs 2.12), and O’Connell is 5-3 all-time against LaFleur. To secure the upset, Green Bay must establish their run game and win the turnover battle.

Giants (+3) vs Cowboys: Home Underdog With a Coaching Edge

Best-available price: +150 (40¢) at Polymarket. Best sportsbook odds: +133 at DraftKings

As a home underdog, the New York Giants check five signals (Signals 1, 2, 4, 8, 9) against the visiting Dallas Cowboys. The Giants’ biggest advantage lies on the sidelines, where John Harbaugh’s 60.9% career win percentage across 317 games easily clears Brian Schottenheimer’s 44.1% mark in 17 games.

Looking at last year’s metrics, New York averaged 129.1 rushing yards compared to Dallas’s 125.6, alongside a better turnover margin (-0.12 vs -0.53). The Giants also hit the home-stadium signal and defensive pressure metric, registering 2.29 sacks per game to the Cowboys’ 2.06.

However, New York’s glaring weakness is overall team form, as last season’s .235 win percentage falls short of Dallas’s .441 mark. To pull off the upset, the Giants must lean on Harbaugh’s experience, control the clock with their ground game, and convert defensive pressure into timely sacks.

Buccaneers (+4) at Bengals: Defensive Dog With a Rushing Edge

Best-available price: +178 (36¢) at Polymarket. Best sportsbook odds: +171 at Caesars

Hitting four model signals (Signals 3, 4, 7, 9), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring a gritty defensive profile to Cincinnati. Last season, the Buccaneers proved to be the more efficient team, boasting a .471 win percentage compared to the Bengals’ .353.

Tampa Bay dominated the ground comparison on both sides of the ball last year. They averaged 114.5 rushing yards offensively and allowed just 99.1 defensively, blowing past Cincinnati’s 93.6 gained and 147.1 allowed per game. Furthermore, the Bucs generated more sacks (2.18 vs 2.06) and a cleaner turnover margin (+0.41 vs -0.18).

On the flip side, the Buccaneers do not hit the coaching signals. Todd Bowles (.446 career win percentage) trails Zac Taylor (.467) and lost their only prior head-to-head matchup. For this upset to land, Tampa Bay must exploit Cincinnati’s leaky run defense, win the turnover margin, and keep the Bengals under 100 rushing yards.

NFL Week 1 Best Bet: The Underdog Moneyline With the Biggest Edge

While the Buccaneers (+170) and Giants (+130) carry implied win probabilities of roughly 37% and 43.5%, I explicitly avoid chasing the longest price. The true value lies with the Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+100), which implies a 50% win probability.

Matt LaFleur’s distinct career coaching edge and the team’s superior rushing efficiency point to a likelihood of victory well above that 50% implied mark. Even with my confidence tier strictly capped at “Medium (Week 1 cap)”, Green Bay’s 11 weighted points create the board’s largest gap between statistical expectations and implied probability.