New York Jets 2019 Playoff Odds Improve from +300 to +260 After Encouraging Preseason Performances by Darnold
By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Updated: March 26, 2020 at 3:25 pm EDTPublished:
- The New York Jets currently have the 10th-best odds in the AFC to make the NFL Playoffs
- A big reason has been the play of Sam Darnold, who has been good in limited action
- Can the Jets make the playoffs for the first time since 2010?
It has been a long time since the New York Jets made the playoffs.
Back in 2010, they were led by Mark Sanchez, and a ferocious defense that led them to a second-straight AFC Championship game.
Since then, they’ve had just one winning season, going 10-6 in Todd Bowles’ first year.
Now Adam Gase is the head coach. The hope is that he can take Sam Darnold and give the Jets a top-flight offense.
And take them back to the playoffs.
Odds to Make 2019 NFL Playoffs
| Team | 2018 Record | NFL Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 11-5 | -650 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 | -325 |
| Los Angeles Chargers |
12-4 | -190 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10-6 | -190 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7-8-1 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-6-1 | -105 |
| Houston Texans | 11-5 | +155 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | +165 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | +230 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | +275 |
| New York Jets | 4-12 | +275 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6-10 | +300 |
| Denver Broncos | 6-10 | +350 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-10 | +500 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-12 | +600 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-9 | +950 |
*Odds taken 08/22/2019
In 2019 playoff odds the Jets have the 10th-best average odds to make the playoffs. They’ve been intertwined with the Titans since May, and sit ahead of the Broncos, Bills, Bengals, Raiders and Dolphins.
Of course, that leaves plenty of other AFC teams ahead of them, including the juggernaut Patriots in the AFC East.
Sam Darnold vs Second Year AFC Starters
| QB | Team | COMP/ATT | Yards | TD/INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | MIA | 23/38 | 293 | 0/1 | 73.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 15/22 | 168 | 0/0 | 90.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 10/16 | 117 | 1/0 | 105.5 |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 9/12 | 114 | 1/0 | 131.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 5/6 | 77 | 1/0 | 158.3 |
*Stats prior to Preseason Week 3
When looking at the preseason stats of Darnold and his classmates from the 2018 NFL Draft, he trends closer to Mayfield and Jackson. The trio has received usage closer to that of NFL veterans rather than sophomores.
The interesting thing is that there isn’t much recent precedent for preseason usage of sophomore starting QBs. Going back to the 2015 preseason, entrenched sophomores Derek Carr and Blake Bortles each had over 50 attempts. Bortles had a rating of 93.8.
"Sam Darnold is the guy and they are following his lead… Don’t be surprised if he makes a huge leap in year 2.”@PSchrags gives @ColinCowherd the buzz around the Jets young QB. pic.twitter.com/Ew1KVhtdv5
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) August 19, 2019
Neither team made the playoffs.
In 2016, Marcus Mariota only finished the preseason with 31 attempts and a 104.1 rating. The Titans would finish 9-7.
Sam Darnold was DEALING!
Every single pass from his first drive.
Jets used no huddle for a large portion of this drive. pic.twitter.com/JoVO5hVbLQ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 15, 2019
And last year Patrick Mahomes (43 attempts) and Deshaun Watson (15 attempts) received significantly different usage.
So in most cases there’s some positive development. Even if it doesn’t mean playoffs.
Can Le’Veon Bell Help New York Jets Make Playoffs?
Bell certainly thinks so. And he doesn’t seem worried about not appearing in the preseason for the New York Jets.
I don’t think me getting four plays in the preseason is gonna help me in Week 1 for the game. It’s gonna be me just getting ready for playing and practice. When the game comes, then I’ll be ready.
While Bell isn’t concerned about not playing in over a year, maybe he should be.
After spending five years in Pittsburgh and one year away, Bell is in a brand new system. He can learn it half speed in practice, but according to Reggie Bush, nothing replaces game reps.
Sorting Through the AFC Playoff Picture
The New York Jets likely have to take one of the two Wild Card spots.
Even without Melvin Gordon and Derwin James, the Chargers should be in line for one of those spots. After that, New York likely has to contend with the Jaguars, Colts, Bills, and at least one of the Browns, Steelers or Ravens.
.@QuinnenWilliams and @leonardwilliams with the swag-stealing debate of the century 😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/slE6I7UMSG
— New York Jets (@nyjets) August 22, 2019
Fortunately, they play the AFC North this year, share a division with the Bills, and face the Jaguars. That gives them a chance to play those teams head-to-head.
Will the New York Jets Make the Playoffs?
The biggest hurdle New York faces is an early bye week in Week 4. The Jets have four divisional games afterward, the entire NFC East and most of the AFC North.
If they’re in the playoff race down the stretch, it will be a long ride for key players.
New York’s offense will be vastly improved from the 27th-ranked unit they were in 2018. Their defense should still be a top-15 unit, but suspensions and injuries have taken their toll.
But the schedule is their enemy in 2019. It’ll cause the Jets to come up just short.
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
