Colts’ Super Bowl Odds Plummet From +1600 to +5000

• Luck finishes career with more than 23,000 passing yards, 170 touchdowns
• Indianapolis’ projected wins total falls from 9.5 to 6.5
• Chiefs an intriguing pick to win SB 54 at +800

Andrew Luck stunned the football world on Saturday after the Indianapolis Colts quarterback announced he would be retiring — two weeks before the start of the 2019-20 NFL season.

Citing an ongoing cycle of “injury, pain and rehab,” Luck made the announcement official following a pre-season game against the Chicago Bears.

Andrew Luck's last season was one of his best:

• AP Comeback Player of the Year
• Pro Bowl selection
• 4,593 passing yards
• 39 TDs, 15 INTs
• 67.3 Comp %
• 69.6 Total QBR

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/BblliZ3Cgm

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) August 25, 2019

It wasn’t long after that sportsbooks released updated futures on Indianapolis’ Super Bowl 54 odds. The Colts were listed at +1600 prior to Luck’s retirement announcement but plummeted to +5000 on sportsbooks shortly after the news broke.  The Colts were +1267 on average across all sportsbooks.

Is there any value at all in betting on the Colts at +5000 to win the Super Bowl? Judging by the team’s performance without the 2018 Comeback Player of the Year, their chances don’t look good.

Super Bowl 54 Odds

Odds taken 08/25/19

Luck finishes his career 23,671 yards passing and 171 touchdowns. He also had a career completion rating of 60.8%.

With Luck out of the picture, in steps Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired from the New England Patriots in 2017 and has some experience as an everyday NFL quarterback. Brissett was the Colts starter in 15 of 16 games during the 2017 season. He completed 276 of 469 passes and collected 3,098 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

That season the Colts finished with a dreadful 4-12 record and landed them the third overall pick in the draft. However, it also exposed the team’s weaknesses without Luck as starting quarterback.

We'll miss Andrew Luck's sportsmanship.

(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/rmHua8VT7u

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 25, 2019

Other Odds Plummet on Colts

The Colts were considered favorites among many sportsbooks to win the AFC South, but Luck’s decision to retire dropped them to +450 underdogs to win the division. The projected win total set for the Colts also dropped from an opening 9.5 to 6.5 following the news Luck was stepping away from the NFL for good.

Brissett will be a serviceable quarterback, but not one that will help the Colts in contention for a playoff spot.

◽️ Barry Sanders – 31
◽️ Calvin Johnson – 30
◽️ Andrew Luck – 29

Left the game on their terms. pic.twitter.com/eVK5BWKkrH

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 25, 2019

There are other choices to come out of the AFC that present far better value to win the Super Bowl outright. The defending champion New England Patriots are still the favorites to win the championship, but look for the Kansas City Chiefs to make huge strides in 2019.

Luck’s Decision Helps Chiefs’ Chances in AFC

The Chiefs are still listed at +800 to win the Super Bowl, right behind the Pats, who are the +650 favorites. Luck’s departure strengthens Kansas City’s chances to win it all and it shows in the odds, as six of the top 10 Super Bowl favorites are in the NFC. They include; the New Orleans Saints (+900), Chicago Bears (+1200), Los Angeles Rams (+1400) and Philadelphia Eagles (+1200). The Colts were included in this group prior to Luck’s shocking retirement announcement.

MVPat 💪@PatrickMahomes floats it to Damien Williams for the 62-yard TD!#SFvsKC pic.twitter.com/LfaRZtoTcB

— NFL (@NFL) August 25, 2019

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a year older and wiser. After throwing for more than 5,000 passing yards and 50 touchdowns, Mahomes and the Chiefs Kansas City should be considered frontrunners to represent the AFC and win the Super Bowl in 2020.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+800)