Patriots Still the Best Bet to Win the AFC After Colts Lose Luck

• Colts’ AFC Championship odds plummet after Luck retires
• Patriots still the favorites, trailed closely by the Chiefs
• After teams jockey up and down the board, who’s the best bet?

I promise you this Sunday will be the most jarring Sunday NFL fans will wake up to all season.

After battling injury after injury, the word is that #Colts QB Andrew Luck was simply too worn down to continue. And so he abruptly retires at age 29. Jacoby Brissett is the new QB of the Colts.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 25, 2019

Saturday night, following a mean-nothing Colts preseason game, Andrew Luck announced his retirement from the NFL.

The reigning Comeback Player of the Year cited mental and health as his reasons to walk away from one of the richest contracts in pro football at age 29.

With Luck leading Indy, they were one of the teams expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season. Without him, it’s no surprise there’s a plate-shifting shakeup on the latest AFC Championship odds.

AFC Championship Odds

Odds from 25/08/19.

Just over a month ago, the Colts had overtaken the darling Cleveland Browns for third-best odds to win the AFC. Now, they’ve plummeted from +497 down to ninth at +2500 at one sportsbooks, sandwiched between the Ravens and the Raiders, two teams not exactly on anyone’s dark-horse lists.

A few right inside the Colts’ AFC South division are on the move, while the Patriots and Chiefs hold firm at 1-2. It’s time to take stock and find the right bet.

Biggest Movers: Texans and Jaguars

It makes sense that with the Colts losing arguably the best player in the AFC South, the others within the division are most likely to benefit: a better chance to win the division, better conference seeding, and home field in the playoffs are all steps to give yourself the best chance to go to a Super Bowl.

Deshaun Watson on this play:

– looks off coverage
– waits, waits, waits
– knows when DeAndre Hopkins is going to make his break, and separate
– delivers a perfect ball for the TD

All that, from a third year player. Unreal. pic.twitter.com/bVBV2MQ1R6

— Matt Hammond (@MattHammondShow) August 18, 2019

The Texans moved from average odds of +1700 to within the top five of AFC favorites at +1000. Oddsmakers may have been down on them as their defensive secondary downgraded, but perhaps, they’ve undervalued all along just how good quarterback Deshaun Watson is.

Are the Texans a legit Super Bowl contender?@criscarter80: Nope.

"They have a lot of top flight talent. They have a lot of players that you love. They don't have the overall chemistry it would take, they don't match up against the best teams." pic.twitter.com/1HS1DNAZjK

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) August 23, 2019

With Luck out of the picture, Watson is hands-down the best pivot in the AFC South, and we’ll see if his prodigious talent can cover up other roster problems – a trademark of all elite franchise QBs.

The Jaguars move from average odds of +1800 to +1200, but it was expected that they would have improved their odds anyways, as they may have found a legitimate jolt of stardom on the defensive side of the ball with rookie Josh Allen.

#Jaguars rookie first round pick DE/LB Josh Allen 1st half highlights.https://t.co/Ejl6LXC2ha

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 23, 2019

Allen, whose prospects of winning Defensive Rookie of the Year were fading, jumped back into the mix with an electric showing against the Dolphins last week, enough to get him trending on Twitter.

Jacksonville still has many pieces of the team that just missed going to the Super Bowl a year prior, and a reliable QB in Nick Foles under center.

What’s the Best Bet to Make?

Sticking to script, I think the Patriots (+325) are always going to be favorites to win the AFC with the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick combo chugging along. Luck’s retirement only takes one challenger off their list.

Since the 2014 AFC Championship:#Colts are 30-34 and 1-1 in the #NFL Playoffs.

Andrew Luck played in 38 out of 64 games and retired.#Patriots are 50-14 and 10-2 in the playoffs w/3 SB Championships.

Tom Brady played in 60 out of 64 games, won 1 NFL MVP and 1 SB MVP.

— Will D. (@WAD1980) August 25, 2019

While I will be watching the fireworks that are the Chiefs’ and Browns’ offenses, I still have doubts that Kansas City’s league-worst defense from a year ago is significantly better (though they did address it this offseason), and Cleveland is fully ready to compete at a championship level.

In terms of value, if you laid some money on the Texans prior to Saturday night you’d be pretty happy right about now. Still getting them at +1000 is still nice, and would edge out the Jaguars in my priority bets.