Tagovailoa Stays Atop 2019 Heisman Odds After Week 4

• Tua Tagovailoa has 17 touchdown passes and no interceptions so far this season.
• Joe Burrow had 441 passing yards, four touchdowns and one interception in a big win over No. 9 Texas
• Jalen Hurts, who has 19 combined touchdowns, has the easiest schedule of the top three favorites.

Although we’ve seen a lot of movement in terms of the 2019 Heisman Trophy odds, one thing has remained the same: Tua Tagovailoa is at the top of the board.

LSU’s Joe Burrow and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts have now joined him as the top three favorites. Which of that trio is the best bet to win the award?

2019 Heisman Trophy Odds

*Odds taken September 09/24/19.

Tagovailoa Is Starting To Heat Up

There were some questions about Tua Tagovailoa after a “quiet” Week 2 effort where he had just 227 passing yards and three touchdowns against New Mexico State, but that week has proven to be an outlier. As he approaches his fifth game of the season, Tua has totaled 1300 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and no interceptions.

What’s also helped his case – or what is going to help his case if he continues to play like this – is that the SEC looks a bit stronger than we expected. Throughout the offseason, Alabama’s schedule was labeled as easy. As it stands now, the Tide have to play three Top 25 teams, including two in the Top 10.

And remember, that’s just the regular season. If the Crimson Tide are to win their division, they’ll likely have another Top 25 team waiting for them in the SEC Championship Game. Unlike Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, Tagovailoa has a lot of games where he can still have the national spotlight and continue to impress.

Burrow Has Become A Contender

Although it’s hard to believe, not only does LSU have themselves a quarterback, they apparently have one of the best passers in the country. Burrow is fresh off a six touchdown outing against Vanderbilt, his second game this season with at least five touchdown passes. He’s up to 17 on the season with 1520 yards and just two picks.

Burrow has a nice feather in his cap with the win over No. 9 Texas, which was on the road. He shined with a 31-of-39 effort with 471 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. That probably means he’d win the award if the ceremony was held today, but unfortunately for him, it’s not.

Burrow will have to go through a lot before he gets the invite to New York. That includes three opponents in the top ten in four weeks, including the annual showdown with Alabama in Tuscaloosa this year.

That showdown with the Tide is likely to determine who is the Heisman frontrunner. The loser of that game will have a tough time making a better case than the winner.

What About Hurts?

Hurts and Oklahoma had the week off, so his numbers currently trail the other two leaders but there’s no question that he’ll have Heisman-caliber numbers by the end of the season. He only has 880 passing yards and nine passing touchdowns – much lower than Tua and Burrow – but don’t forget that he also has 373 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

Hurts has the benefit of playing in the Big 12, and avoids some of those SEC defenses full of NFL players that Tagovailoa and Burrow will have to deal with the rest of the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjuDLVxnXI8

Hurts is up against Texas Tech this week followed by a trip to Kansas before the Red River Rivalry. If Hurts has good numbers in that contest, he’s all but assured of being a finalist. Teams like Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor shouldn’t offer much resistance.

What’s The Best Bet?

Burrow and Tagovailoa are the favorites and Hurts won’t beat either of them if all three players continue to perform how they’re performing. However, Hurts is my bet because he has the easiest schedule. Alabama and LSU have a lot to go through.

If you’re looking for some value, Justin Fields is an intriguing play. He has totaled 19 touchdowns already and quarterbacks an Ohio State team who are the frontrunners in the Big Ten. As long as Ohio State can get by No. 8 Wisconsin, who they host, Fields and company shouldn’t sweat much versus Penn State, Michigan or Michigan State.

If Fields and the Buckeyes end the year undefeated and Alabama and LSU each have a loss, Fields could get an invite to New York.