2022 NBA MVP Odds – Updated Prices, Betting Preview and Sleeper Picks

• Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic is the preseason favorite to win 2022 NBA MVP
• Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is an outsider for the award, priced at +1500 with DraftKings
• Read below for our NBA MVP preview, the latest odds and a few sleeper picks

Just as was the case at this point last season, Luka Doncic is the favorite in 2022 NBA MVP odds. Clear of Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo, Doncic comes off a spectacular summer at the Olympics with sky high expectations.

Nikola Jokic won the award in 2021, holding off Embiid and Steph Curry, but he’s priced at +1500 ahead of the opening night of the 2021-22 campaign. Four-time MVP LeBron James is at +1800 after missing much of last season through injury. James’ Lakers teammates Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook are tied at +2500 in the preseason betting.

Previous winners occupy five of the top eight spots – let’s take a look at where the value lies in the 2022 NBA MVP odds.

2021-22 NBA MVP Odds

Odds as of Oct 18 at DraftKings

Doncic’s Case

It’s long been a matter of when, not if, Luka Doncic wins his first NBA MVP. Doncic is a top-10 player at worst, and he’s coming off a season where he ranked sixth in scoring, fifth in assists and second in rebounding among non-bigs.

Where other megastars share a team or carry substantial injury risk, Doncic has no competition for numbers on the Mavericks. He’s had minor health setbacks here and there, but he’s generally been durable in the NBA, playing 199 games across his first three seasons.

Team success is the biggest obstacle to the Slovenian winning MVP in 2022. Dallas’ early season struggles effectively knocked him out of the race last season. It has historically been very difficult to win MVP if your team isn’t a top four seed, and that looks like a big ask for Dallas, particularly after the controversial decision to hire Jason Kidd.

Perhaps Doncic puts up such wild numbers that he can win from the fifth or sixth seed. There’s enough uncertainty about Dallas to put you off betting Doncic at that price right now, though.

Can KD Contend?

Kevin Durant exceeded even the loftiest expectations on his return from injury. He was a toe’s length away from knocking out the Milwaukee Bucks almost single-handedly. The best of Durant was on show in 2020-21 at both ends of the floor.

📼 @KDTrey5 with 19 in our last warm-up 📼 pic.twitter.com/U9YxzLUc46

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) October 15, 2021

Numerous preseason player rankings tabbed Durant as the NBA’s best player, which is particularly remarkable given Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Finals performance. Narrative is often a component in an MVP-winning season, and there’s a sense that the former MVP has that on his side.

The quality of performance isn’t a question for KD. Quantity is. Brooklyn were ultra-cautious with him throughout last season, and we could see a Kawhi Leonard-like approach to load management in 2021-22.

The presence of an All-NBA teammate is always relevant here, too. Durant and Steph Curry effectively ruled each other out of MVP reckoning – there’s a risk the same happens with Durant and James Harden, even if Kyrie Irving sits out the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOh1-jxq7Bc

Durant needs to play at least 65 games and for Brooklyn to get the one seed if he’s to win the award. The Nets have the depth to do just that, but that could just as easily boost Harden’s odds and force Durant’s to fade.

LeBron’s Last Chance

LeBron James was at the forefront of the MVP discussion before his injury last season. If the Lakers are good and LeBron is healthy, he’s always going to be in the mix.

James’ MVP candidacy is complicated. It goes beyond the performances or statistics of this year, and the debate often slips into a legacy award. At this stage of his career and sharing the floor with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, LeBron is not going to build a purely statistical case for MVP like Doncic, Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokic.

The on/off numbers have played a foundational part in arguing for LeBron to win MVP. The Lakers become an elite team with him on the floor and barely break even when he’s on the bench. That trend may well continue this season, but questions about the fit of this roster are significant.

Like with any MVP candidate, James needs the Lakers to flourish in the regular season. While overcoming some on-court issues and a slow start could benefit his case in the long run, a top-three finish in the West feels like the minimum for LeBron to be an MVP finalist.

Although James has always been adamant about playing every game he can, keeping his minutes total under control is clearly a factor going into this season. Injuries are now relevant when protecting LeBron’s seasons, too.

LeBron is on pace to break more records this season 👀 pic.twitter.com/mYn7idXtyj

— NBA TV (@NBATV) October 17, 2021

Every season feels like James’ last chance to win MVP. Maybe this is finally it, but he will still need a lot to go his way to win the award.

Players to Avoid Betting for NBA MVP

The odds Doncic and Durant are too short to be appealing. Dallas might not win enough games after another underwhelming offseason and playing with Harden is likely to work against Durant.

Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis are in a similar spot. Even priced at +2500, neither represent value whatsoever in this market. They would need LeBron to get injured to even stand a chance, and if James is out for a prolonged period, it’s hard to see the Lakers being anywhere near good enough to have an MVP.

Paul George is another bet to avoid. He’s positioned to put up big numbers, but the margin for error is so small with Kawhi Leonard injured. As touched on in our win total picks, the Clippers are unlikely to even be a top six team, effectively taking George out of contention at +3000.

Sleeper Picks for NBA MVP

There’s value at the top of the board in Antetokounmpo and Steph Curry. Both have a chance to post historic statistics once again and do so on high-seeded teams.

Beyond the favorites, though, there are a handful of names who really standout in the 2022 NBA MVP odds.

Donovan Mitchell at +3000, for instance, is a great bet. Utah is expected to be an elite regular season team again. Mitchell scored 29.6 points per game after the All-Star break last season, a mark only bettered by Curry. He shot a career-high in percentage and quantity from three.

If Utah is a top two or three team again and Mitchell averages 30, he’s going to be in the mix for MVP.

While the team record is unlikely to be as good, a comparative case can be made for Jayson Tatum at the same odds. A battle with COVID-19 disrupted his 2020-21 campaign, but Tatum was the sixth-highest scorer in the league in the second half and has developed into an All-Defense candidate.

ZACH LAVINE. 🔨🔨

This Bulls team is FUN

pic.twitter.com/BYH5nuZuIN

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) October 6, 2021

There’s downside for the Celtics with a fresh roster and a new coach. There’s definitely MVP upside for Tatum this year, though, if the Celtics can force their way into the top four in the Eastern Conference.

Zach LaVine is another name to consider. Chicago’s defense is a concern, but their potent offense might be enough to mask that in the regular season. LaVine broke out in a big way in 2020-21, improving as a playmaker, defender and shooter on his way to seventh in scoring at 27.4 per game.

They have added talent around him, but LaVine is still their clear number one option. If you’re confident in the Bulls as a top four team, LaVine at +8000 is a good bet.