Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Props – Best Team and Player Props to Bet

• The Indianapolis Colts visit the Buffalo Bills in Week 11
• Last week’s prop picks: 2-2. Overall: 18-21, -0.51 units
• See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below

A decent Week 10 helped us climb closer to out of the red, so a big thank you to Mac Jones and D’Ernest Johnson. One good week vaults us into the black, and sets us up for a big finish for the second half.

It could happen in Week 11, as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Buffalo Bills, in a game that is suddenly very important for both sides.

The Bills have the hard-charging Patriots breathing down their necks in the AFC East, while the Colts are in a logjam of clubs at five wins, all within range of that seventh and final playoff spot in the ultra-competitive conference.

As always, we’ve got you set with an NFL game preview. For now, let’s dive into our favorite player prop bets available.

Colts vs Bills Player Props

Odds taken Nov 13 from DraftKings

Stefon Diggs Receptions

On the surface, it appears that Bills receiver Stefon Diggs is having a pretty good season. His 56 catches rank 10th, 750 yards receiving is good for seventh, and he has four TD’s on the year. That’s the thing with expectations: once you put in a monster year like he did in 2020, the standard you’ve set for yourself is extreme.

Diggs led the NFL in 2020 with 127 catches for 1,535 and eight scores. Last year’s totals after the 9-game mark are quite similar to this year’s: he had seven more grabs, 63 more yards and one less TD.

.@JoshAllenQB and @StefonDiggs would not be denied. #BillsMafia

📺: #BUFvsNYJ on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/wXNaYyHqfR

— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2021

Perhaps those numbers are on course after the Bills’ 45-17 thrashing of the Jets, where Diggs hauled in eight balls for 162 yards and a score. It’s the fourth time he’s gone over that 6.5-catch total set for Sunday, though he’s yet to do it in consecutive outings this season.

The urgency for the Bills is now, and with a date with the Pats looming after next week, stacking wins and keeping the pace means feeding your top guy.

Pick: 

• Diggs OVER 6.5 receptions (1.5 units to win 1.36 units)

Jonathan Taylor Rush Yards

One of the key matchups will be the Bills’ run defense against Colts’ workhorse back Jonathan Taylor.

Since a sluggish three-game start to the year, Taylor has been business, rushing for 100+ yards in five of the Colts’ last seven outings. He’s coming off a 21-rush, 116-yard rumbling against the Jaguars, which was a follow-up to a season-best 172-yard performance against the Jets.

With 937 rushing yards, will #Colts RB: Jonathan Taylor reach 1k this Sunday vs the #3 rush defense in the #NFL, the #Bills? pic.twitter.com/zneW55wcRu

— Lawrence Owen (@Colts_Law) November 16, 2021

The Bills are stout up front, and rank third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 83.9. To date, the list of individual 100-yard rushers allowed this year stands are Derrick Henry. In fact, Henry is the only back to surpass Taylor’s rush yards total this game. Aside from Henry, only two players have even crossed the 60-yard rushing threshold, and one of those was Patrick Mahomes.

We should note that Taylor’s two sub 100-yard games in this fun-run were to the Ravens and Titans. They, along with Buffalo are three of seven teams to give up less than 100 yards rushing per game on the season.

Pick:

• Taylor UNDER 73.5 rushing yards (1 unit to win 0.87 units)

Carson Wentz TD Passes

Consequently, if the Bills are focussed on shutting down the run game, the onus will be on Indy pivot Carson Wentz to generate some offense. Week 10 snapped his streak of six straight games throwing for at least two TD’s.

His 180 yards passing against the Jaguars last time out was also just the second time in seven games he’s gone under this week’s passing yards total.

.@cj_wentz flips it to Doyle for the TD!@Colts lead 21-7. #ForTheShoe

📺: #NYJvsIND on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/LjvhBLTVnB pic.twitter.com/3fuS4oFVIA

— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2021

The Bills have allowed just two pivots to hit two passing TD’s in a game: Taylor Heinecke and Mahomes and the KC pivot and the immortal Mike White are the only two to cross the yards total.

Let’s take the better value and hope he hits.

Pick:

• Wentz OVER 2 TD passes (1 unit to win 1.55 units)

Colts vs Bills Scoring Props

Colts vs Bills TD Scorers

The obvious one here is Taylor, who has scored at least one major in each of the Colts’ last seven games.

Jonathan Taylor with the second effort!

That's seven straight games with a rushing TD for @JayT23. #ForTheShoe

📺: #JAXvsIND on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/ZYHE1iyqj5

— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2021

Other Indy players worth considering include receiver Michael Pittman Jr, who has a TD score in three of Indianapolis’ last four games.

If Diggs stays hot, he’s also got plus-odds to haul in a major, and he’s done so in three of Buffalo’s previous four games. Seeking a little more value? Tight end Dawson Knox has found paydirt in four of his last six appearances.

Pick:

• Knox to score anytime TD (0.5 units to win 0.95 units)