Indiana vs Illinois Odds and Picks (Mar. 11)

• #9 Indiana (19-12, 9-11 Big Ten) takes on #1 Illinois (22-8, 15-5 Big Ten) Friday, March 11th, at 11:30 am ET in Indianapolis in a quarterfinal game of the Big Ten tourney
• The Hoosiers beat Michigan 74-69 in a second round game on Thursday, while Illinois got past Iowa 74-72 at home on Sunday to finish the regular season with a share of the conference title
• See the current Indiana vs Illinois odds, point spread, and game total, plus predictions

The #9 Indiana Hoosiers (19-12, 9-11  Big Ten) — who went on a 31-9 run to close out the Wolverines in their tourney opener — take on the top-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini (22-8, 15-5 Big Ten) in a quarterfinal matchup of the Big Ten tournament on Friday at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Tip off is at 11:30 am ET on the Big Ten Network.

Indiana vs Illinois Odds

Odds as of March 10th, 2022 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Indiana is now expected to be a No. 9 seed in the South Region, while Illinois is slated as a No. 4 seed in the East Region pert the latest March Madness bracket projection. The Hoosiers are +7000 longshots in the odds to make the Final Four, while the Illini have much shorter odds at +1200.

As far as the Big Ten Tournament odds, IU entered at +2200 with Illinois at +275.

Mike Woodson’s team was down 17 points to the Maize and Blue in its tourney lid-lifter in Indy. But Trayce Jackson-Davis scored 19 of his 24 points in the second half, while Xavier Johnson finished with 17 points, eight rebounds and seven assists to help IU advance.

Meantime, Brad Underwood’s charges overcame a 15-point first-half deficit against the Hawkeeys as Kofi Cockburn had a team-high 21 points and 14 rebounds in the two-point victory. Senior guard Alfonso Plummer led the comeback with15 points.

Illinois is 4-0 vs Indiana in Recent H2H History

The Hoosiers have not beaten the Fighting Illini since the 2018-19 season, when Indiana closed out a stretch of beating Illinois in seven of eight matchups. But of the four recent victories for Underwood’s squad, all but one have been by single-digits. The only double-figure margin of victory? A 74-57 win in Bloomington by Illinois on Feb. 5.

Senior guard Trent Frazier was exceedingly efficient last month, converting all three of his shots inside the arc, went 2-of-3 from 3-point range and hit both free throws to finish with 23 points while Cockburn was his usual solid self — finishing with 17 points and eight boards. Indiana star TJD, meantime, missed nearly the entire second half due to foul trouble.

Thursday’s victory might just give the Hoosiers some momentum heading into Friday’s matchup, though.

KenPom has IU ranked 19th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 16th in defensive effective field goal percentage. Three players score in double-digits for the Hoosiers (Jackson-Davis, Race Thompson and Johnson). The recent elite all-around play of Johnson — who leads the team in assists — gives Woodson another player he can rely on in crunch time.

Illinois is 4-8 ATS in Last 12

While Illinois has gone 9-3 straight up since squeaking by Michigan State 56-55 on Jan. 25 to claim at least a share of its first conference title since 2005, the Illini have gone 4-8 against the number over that timeframe. The most recent defeat in the sportsbooks came this past weekend in the regular season finale as 4-point favorites against Iowa.

Illinois has been one of the best teams in one of the best conferences (the Big Ten is ranked third by KenPom after the Big 12 and SEC) all season, ranking 20th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 28th in defensive adjusted efficiency. But how will Cockburn and Co. respond to being the hunted in Indianapolis?

The program is riding a three-game win streak and has arguably the most dynamic big man in the country.

Indiana vs Illinois Prediction

This one should be much closer than the regular season matchup between the two schools.

If Jackson-Davis can stay out of foul trouble (which is a big if), Indiana has a chance to pull off the upset. But I expect Illinois to take care of business and advance to the semifinals.

Pick: Illinois -3.5 (-110)