Navy vs UCF Odds, Lines and Best Bets

• The UCF Knights are 16.5-point home favorites vs Navy in college football Week 12 play
• UCF has won three straight, while the Midshipmen have dropped four of five
• See below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction

The UCF Knights (8-2, 5-1 AAC) are rolling, having won three straight and seven of their last eight. At 8-1, they control their fate to play in the American Athletic Conference Championship.

Navy (3-7, 3-4 AAC) has lost four of their last five, but would like nothing more than to throw a wrench into UCF’s plans.

The two teams clash in Week 12, in a game that is expected to be a ground and pound battle, featuring two of the best running games in all of college football.

It all gets underway Saturday (November 19) at 11am ET from FBC Mortgage Stadium, in a game you can see live on ESPN2.

Navy vs UCF Odds

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The Knights are a hefty 16.5-point home favorite in this one, with a total of 52.5. They’re 5-1 at home on the year, while the Midshipmen have lost three straight on the road.

Midshipmen Betting Outlook

Navy had 20th-ranked Notre Dame on upset alert last time out, using a spirited second half to wipe out an ugly 35-13 halftime deficit, though they fell 35-32 to drop their second straight contest.

As usual, they were carried by their run game, that churned out 255 yards on 46 carries. Daba Fofana was one of six Midshipmen to carry at least three times, running for a game-high 133 yards and a score on 15 attempts. Quarterback Xavier Aline rushed 12 times for 59 yards and touchdown.

Navy threw just 13 passes, though two of them went for TD scores in the fourth quarter, when they cut it to three points with just over a minute to play.

Midshipmen on the board with the 36-yard rush from Daba Fofana!#AmericanFB x @NavyFB pic.twitter.com/1bwbr4Pq7p

— American Football (@American_FB) November 12, 2022

On the year, Navy boasts the 10th-best rush attack in the nation, averaging 238.7 yards per game. Only Air Force has run the ball more than Navy’s 588 totes, and they average 4.06 yards per carry. That lack of passing attack leaves them 108th in total offense, though, at 339 yards per game.

Defensively, the Midshipmen have been getting done, surrendering just 360.4 yards per game, which ranks 46th. Their run defense has been among the best in the nation, surrendering just 85.8 rushing yards per contest, which ranks sixth. Only 10 teams in college football are allowing less than 100.

Knights’ Betting Outlook

While they are tied with Tulane and Cincinnati at the top of the AAC, UCF is in pole position by virtue of head-to-head wins over both the Bearcats in Week 9 and last week over the Green Wave, 38-31.

Their running game was an absolute beast, with the Knights piling up 336 yards on 54 carries and four TD’s.

QB John Rhys Plumlee led the attack with 18 carries for 176 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw for 132 yards and added a TD pass.

John Rhys Plumlee turned on the JETS for this 67-yard TD 🚀 @UCF_Football pic.twitter.com/YbFUDB3GVy

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 12, 2022

RJ Harvey had 12 carries for 83 yards, as the Knights averaged 6.2 yards per carry.

UCF has the 5th-best run attack in the nation, ringing up 249.5 carries per game, and their 28 TD runs ranks 10th. Unlike Navy, they can throw a little too, putting up 248.2 pass yards per game. Combined, they have the 9th-best offense in the country, piling up 497.2 yards per game.

It’s their defense that is going to be put to the test Saturday. On the year, UCF has allowed just 20 points per game (21st), and they’re also strong against the run, surrendering just 123.1 rush yards per game (31st).

Navy vs UCF Prediction

Despite their poor record, Navy has been a boon for bettors when they hit the road, sporting a 3-1 record against the spread. In games where they’ve been an underdog by 17 points or more, they’re 2-0 ATS.

UCF are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, but their last three wins have been by single digits. That might have something to do with schedule, as it included conference powerhouses Tulane and Cincy.

On the other side, the Midshipmen have only lost two games by 17 points or more all year.

I think UCF rolls, but with both teams likely ripping up turf with the ground game, plus Navy’s ability to hang around, I’ll take the points.

The Pick:

• Navy +16.5 (-104); 1 unit to win 0.96 units
• Week 11NCAAF Record: 2-1: Overall: 6-6 ATS, 1-0 ML, 1-3 o/u; -2.18 units