NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Odds, Predictions & Longshots to Bet 2025

• NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 goes green this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway
• Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano love this drafting track. Could Kyle Larson avoid a wreck here?
• Below, see our NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 predictions, odds and maybe a few longshots too.

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into the Atlanta area for the second points event this Sunday, February 23rd, with the NASCAR Ambetter Health 400. The green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET with live coverage on FOX Network. Do remember practice and qualifying is streamed on Amazon Prime Video (via FOX) for 11 races this season.

The 1.54-mile track races at anything but an easy pace. Last February, the drivers avoided overtime for the second time as Daniel Suarez held on for a memorable victory. Suarez fended off Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney in a three-wide photo finish for the ages. Todd Gilliland led the most laps with 58. Atlanta is well known for narrow tight-drafting racing, which features its share of cautions (10 for 65 laps).

The oddsmakers are expecting a mostly Ford-Chevy mix to contend on Sunday:

NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Odds

At +850 odds (17/2), the implied probability for favorites Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney is 10.43%. Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott linger at 9.09%.

If you’re looking for longshot picks, check out the end of the article.

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NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Predictions

Weather issues are not likely on Sunday afternoon. Yes, there will be more clouds, but no rain is expected till around midnight.

Qualifying expects to be dominated by the Ford cars and maybe a Chevy or three. Six of the top eight qualifying spots in 2024 went to Ford led by Michael McDowell (formerly of Front Row Motorsports). Ryan Blaney was right near the front throughout the race as was Daniel Suarez and Kyle Busch later in the race. Did we mention Kyle Larson?

This race tends to produce some crazy results. William Byron has won here twice before, including in 2022 (last time it was 500 miles). Blaney won in 2021, while Joey Logano took the trophy home in 2023 (first time it was the 400). Again, Larson has been close to the front, and Hendrick has been rather good here. It is why Chase Elliott, Byron, and Larson are seeing shorter numbers as the race approaches.

Looking for a top 5 bet? Now, could this be the week to play it safe? Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are both right around even money (+110 on DraftKings). Drivers like Brad Keselowski and William Byron or Ross Chastain lurk further down the list. Last year’s winner (Daniel Suarez) is now +325.

Is the race more like 2023 or 2024? 2023 saw fewer cautions (5 for 34 laps) but draft racing seems to have made the field more chaotic. There are two questions. Can Kyle Larson keep it on the track? Can Ryan Blaney win one this time?

• Best Bet to Win: Kyle Larson (+1100 at DraftKings)
• Top 5 Finish: William Byron (+220 at DraftKings)

NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Longshot Picks

Yes, Kyle Busch had a nightmarish 2024 and 2025 did not start off well at Daytona with a DNF. Busch should contend but the questions remain in the RCR Chevy. Given what happened last week to Chase Briscoe (100 point deduction for a spoiler violation), does he feel the urgency to win even more now? Briscoe has -67 points and needs to play catch-up already. Briscoe stands at +2500 again for Sunday.

It will be even more intriguing to see where drivers like Ross Chastain end up. Trackhouse Racing averages a 9.7 finish at Atlanta but only have the Suarez nail-biter in the win column. Hendrick has three wins and Penske has two. Penske seems to hold most of the cards but can they finish?

Again, 2023 featured Austin Cindric and Joey Logano pacing things most of the race. Cindric fell to 11th late. The third Penske driver is +1300. For perspective, Chastain is +2000 currently.

This could be a case where Ford drivers set it up for Hendrick and Larson once again. This is why even William Byron (+1800) is a driver to keep an eye on again.