2026 NFL Mock Draft Built Using Only Betting Odds

Updated: April 23, 2026 at 10:50 am EDT

For each of the last seven years, and now eight when you include the below mock, I have built an NFL mock draft based purely on the NFL Draft props available at online sportsbooks. With the thousands of betting markets available, piecing the puzzle together can be quite tricky and time consuming, but I have found a lot of value in doing so. My goal here is not necessarily to have the best, most accurate NFL mock draft, though I won’t be upset if that’s the case, but rather to poke holes in the sportsbooks’ markets and highlight NFL Draft betting opportunities.

I’ll get into my method and processes for constructing this 2026 NFL mock draft a little later in this page, if you’re interested. For now, let’s dive into my (the sportsbooks’) 1st round NFL mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft:

First-Round NFL Mock Draft

Pick #	Team	Player Selected	Position	Justification
1	Las Vegas Raiders	Fernando Mendoza	QB	Mendoza is given -20000 odds to be the first pick
2	New York Jets	David Bailey	DE/Edge	Bailey has become the favorite to be the 2nd overall pick at all sportsbooks as of draft day.
3	Arizona Cardinals	Arvell Reese	DE/Edge	Reese was the favorite to be the 2nd overall pick for a long time, but those odds have shifted. He is now the favorite to be the 3rd pick, and has very short odds to be a top 5 pick.
4	Tennessee Titans	Jeremiyah Love	RB	Love’s draft position o/u heavily favors under 5.5, and one sportsbook has his line at 4.5 with the under favored as well.
5	New York Giants	Sonny Styles	LB	Styles’ o/u is set at 5.5 with the odds slightly favoring the over. However, no other player is given better odds to be a top 5 pick, and I would be going against a stronger o/u in putting anyone else here.
6	Cleveland Browns	Jordyn Tyson	WR	Tyson’s over/under has shifted dramatically, as it’s now set at 8.5 with the under heavily favored. Sportsbooks are nearly at a pick’em for Tyson vs Tate as the first WR selected as well. There are no odds on the position Cleveland will take with their first pick.
7	Washington Commanders	Caleb Downs	S	Downs’ o/u is 9.5 with the under favored at -132. Washington has no odds on their first selected position.
8	New Orleans Saints	Carnell Tate	WR	Tate’s draft position o/u is still 7.5, but has seen the over become favored. There are no odds on what position the Saints will prioritize with their first pick.
9	Kansas City Chiefs	Francis Mauigoa	OL	Mauigoa is still slightly favored to be the first OL taken, but his o/u slightly favors over 9.5. I would have been breaking a more probable o/u in going with anyone else here, though. The Chiefs are favored to go OL as well.
10	New York Giants (from Bengals)	Spencer Fano	OL	One sportsbook has Fano’s o/u listed at 9.5 with the over slightly favored, and another has 10.5 with the under favored. So, he gets locked into 10.
11	Miami Dolphins	Mansoor Delane	CB	Delane is heavily favored to be the first CB taken, and his over/under favors over 9.5. He also needs to come off the board before Bain to satisfy that H2H market.
12	Dallas Cowboys	Rueben Bain Jr.	DE/Edge	Bain’s o/u is set at 8.5 with the over extremely favored, and one sportsbook even has his line favoring the over at 9.5. The Cowboys do not have odds on which position they will target with their first pick.
13	Los Angeles Rams (from ATL)	Makai Lemon	WR	Though I feel the Rams should take OL with this pick, the odds favor them taking a WR with their first pick. Lemon’s o/u favors under 15.5, and he also needs to come off the board before Sadiq, since he is given better odds in the head-to-head matchups.
14	Baltimore Ravens	Olaivavega Ioane	OL	Ioane’s o/u is 14.5 with the under heavily favored at one sportsbook, but another has over 13.5 favored. So, this locks him into 14 to the Ravens, who are heavily favored to take an OL with their first pick.
15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kenyon Sadiq	TE	Bucs are favored to take a DL/Edge with their first pick, but tight end is not far behind at +380. Sadiq’s o/u is 15.5 with the under favored at -122.
16	New York Jets (from IND)	Kadyn Proctor	OL	The odds heavily favor Proctor’s o/u going under 16.5, and according to H2H odds, Proctor needs to be selected before Freeling.
17	Detroit Lions	Monroe Freeling	OL	Lions are heavily favored to take an OL with their first pick. Freeling’s o/u is set at 17.5 with the under favored. Freeling needs to come off after Proctor.
18	Minnesota Vikings	Dillon Thieneman	S	Vikings are favored to take a safety with their first pick. Thieneman’s o/u is set at 17.5 with the over heavily favored at -215 odds at one sportsbook, while another favors the under at 18.5.
19	Carolina Panthers	Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	Cooper’s o/u is set at 23.5 with the under heavily favored. The Panthers are favored to go either OL or WR with their first pick.
20	Dallas Cowboys (from GB)	Emmanuel McNeil-Warren	SCB	Not the biggest need for the Cowboys, but no other team is given reasonable odds to take a safety with their first pick. McNeil-Warren is -200 to be a first-round pick, and odds heavily favor over 2.5 safeties in the first round.
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	KC Concepcion	WR	His over/under is set at 24.5 with the under given -136 odds. The Steelers are favored to go OL with their first pick, but WR is not given long odds.
22	Los Angeles Chargers	Keldric Faulk	DE/Edge	Chargers are favored to go DL/Edge with their first pick and Faulk is given -136 odds to go under 22.5.
23	Philadelphia Eagles	Blake Miller	OL	Miller is given -1000 odds to be a first-round pick, and the Eagles are favored to go OL with their first pick.
24	Cleveland Browns (from JAX)	Colton Hood	CB	Hood does not have an o/u at any sportsbook but he has great odds to be a first-round pick, and is now the favorite to be the second CB taken.
25	Chicago Bears	Akheem Mesidor	DL/Edge	The Bears are favored to go DL/Edge with their first pick, and is given -190 odds to be a first-round pick.
26	Buffalo Bills	Peter Woods	DL	Woods is given -190 odds to be a first-round pick, and the Bills are favored to take a DL/Edge. Woods needs to come before McDonald, according to H2H odds.
27	San Francisco 49ers	Caleb Lomu	OL	Lomu is given -350 odds to be a first-round pick, and the 49ers are favored to go OL with their first pick.
28	Houston Texans	Max Iheanachor	OL	The Texans are heavily favored to take an OL with their first pick, and Iheanachor has the best odds to be a first-round pick among remaining OL. This also satisfies the over 7.5 OL taken in the first round (-155). He needs to come off before Simpson to satisfy that H2H betting market.
29	Kansas City Chiefs (from LAR)	Kayden McDonald	DL	McDonald is given -340 odds to be a first-round pick, and the Chiefs were given good odds to take DL/Edge with their first pick – the second-best odds. McDonald needs to come off the board after Woods.
30	*Arizona Cardinals (from DEN via MIA)	Ty Simpson	QB	Simpson’s o/u is set at 24.5 with the over favored at -270 odds. But he is given -205 odds to be a first-round pick, and over 1.5 QBs is favored with -205 odds as well (correlated). This is another Jaxson Dart situation, where someone is going to have to come back up into the latter part of the first-round to satisfy all the odds. I have the Cardinals doing so, who are the favorites to draft Simpson. Jets will have a harder time getting Miami to agree to a trade with them.
31	New England Patriots	Denzel Boston	WR	The Patriots do not have odds on the position they will take with their first pick. Boston is favored to go under 28.5, which I am not satisfying here. But he has good odds to be taken in the first round as well.
32	Seattle Seahawks	Chris Johnson	CB	Seahawks are favored to take a corner with their first pick, and Johnson’s o/u line is set at 32.5 with the under heavily favored at -250.

*I forced one trade into this mock draft to satisfy all the two-way betting markets. The Arizona Cardinals will move up four spots from #34, giving the Dolphins even more darts to throw with tons of roster holes to fill.

The NFL mock draft above was pieced together on April 2. This is the first mock draft of the year, and I was not able to get as precise as I wanted, due to sportsbooks not yet releasing too many betting markets for the NFL Draft.

In putting this NFL mock draft together, I used the following NFL Draft odds (in order of priority/weighting):

Draft position over/unders (only a handful of players right now)
First-round position totals (available for most position groups)
Player head-to-heads
Odds to be the first/second player taken at each playing position
Odds for the position of each team’s first drafted player (only had about 20 right now)
Odds to be the 1-15 pick
Odds to be a top 5/10/32 pick
Odds to be drafted by a specific team (only available for a couple of players)

I do not give each prop the same weight, as mentioned. I lean more heavily on markets where you can bet every possible outcome, as well as the markets with lower vig/juice. The market I lean on most in my NFL mock above is draft position over/unders for each player, as it is the market where sportsbooks experience the biggest liabilities due to the lesser vig and only two possible outcomes (over or under).

I was able to satisfy the more probable outcome of all two-way betting markets (first two in my list), but it meant going against some of the other betting markets. These were the most probable outcomes I was not able to satisfy:

TJ Parker to be a top 32 pick (-165)
Rueben Bain Jr to be a top 10 pick (-145)
Sonny Styles draft position over 5.5 (-136)

While I could have added one more corner and one more wide receiver while still satisfying the unders on their respective first-round position total lines, the combo of other players with better odds to be taken in the first round, and struggling to find teams with favorable odds to draft those positions resulted in me prioritizing other positions.

All NFL Draft Bets I Have Made

Here’s a running list of the NFL Draft bets I have placed using my NFL mock(s) above:

Jeremiyah Love draft position under 4.5 (+145 at bet365)
Jordyn Tyson to be the 1st WR drafted (+160 at bet365)
Over 6.5 Defensive Backs drafted in the 1st round (+160 at theScore Bet)

2026 NFL Draft Order

The current order of the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft is as follows:

Las Vegas Raiders
New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals
Tennessee Titans
New York Giants
Cleveland Browns
Washington Commanders
New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants (from Bengals)
Miami Dolphins
Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams (from Falcons)
Baltimore Ravens
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets (from Colts)
Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys (from Packers)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns (from Jaguars)
Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills
San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams)
Miami Dolphins (from Broncos)
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks

What is a practice draft?

A practice draft is more commonly referred to as an NFL mock draft. Members of the media, analysts, insiders, and plenty of fans create their own NFL mock drafts ahead of the NFL Draft each year, predicting how the draft will play out (which players will be drafted by each team).

Who gets the first pick in the NFL Draft 2026?

At the moment, the Las Vegas Raiders hold the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Raiders finished with a 3-14 record, which tied them with the Cardinals, Titans, and Jets. But Las Vegas was awarded the first overall pick after the tiebreaker was settled.

What is the point of NFL mock drafts?

The point of an NFL mock draft is to simply predict how the draft will play out, with the end goal of driving conversation and engagement from fans of each team.

How Does Drafting Work in the NFL?

All 32 teams receive one pick in each of the NFL Draft’s seven rounds. The order of those picks within each round is determined by how each team finished the previous season. The worst team from the previous season will get the first pick, while the Super Bowl winner will get the last pick – it follows a reverse order of previous year’s record.

What is an NFL mock draft simulator?

An NFL mock draft simulator allows you to play the role of GM and work through the upcoming draft. Depending on the sophistication of the simulator you are using, you will be able to make each draft pick for your team and potentially facilitate draft pick trades. However, you can also do an NFL mock draft the old fashioned way with a pen and piece of paper or spreadsheet.

When is the 2026 NFL Draft?

The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft gets underway at 8pm ET on Thursday, April 23.

Where is the 2026 NFL Draft?

The 2026 NFL Draft is being held at Acrisure Stadium and Point State Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It is the first time the NFL Draft has been hosted in Pittsburgh since 1948.

Matt McEwan

Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert

With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.

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