Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies Odds, Predictions & Props to Bet (April 18)

• The Mavericks visit the Grizzlies on Friday with the winner advancing to the 1st Round of the NBA playoffs
• Ja Morant (ankle) is a legitimate game-time decision
• See the best Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds, predictions and props to bet, below

Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson turned back the clock on Wednesday night, leading the Mavericks to a Play-In Tournament win. Can they do it again versus the Grizzlies and propel Dallas into the 1st round of the NBA playoff bracket? Online sportsbooks don’t think so, but I predict this game winds up being a lot closer than they currently project.

The two teams will tip-off tonight at 9:40pm ET inside the FedExForum in Memphis, TN, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Odds

The Grizzlies are currently favored by 6 points and -270 on the moneyline. The total sits at 221.5, with Dallas coming back as +220 ‘dogs. Per the NBA public betting trends, the spread has moved a half point in the Mavs favor since opening odds were released, while the total has risen a point.

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Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies Injury Report

The big news heading into this game is the status of Memphis guard Ja Morant. The team’s most dynamic player suffered an ankle injury in the first Play-In Tournament Game versus Golden State, but was able to continue after a brief rest.

Morant sat out practice on Thursday and has reportedly experienced significant swelling in his ankle. He’s been undergoing around the clock treatment in hopes of playing Friday, but even if he does suit up it’s fair to question how effective he’ll be.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Prediction

• Dallas Mavericks +6 (-108) at DraftKings

Fortunately for Memphis, they’re used to playing without Morant. He missed 32 games this season, with the Grizzlies posting an 18-14 record. Memphis fell 121-116 to the Warriors on Wednesday to put themselves in this position, losing for the seventh time in 10 games since interim coach Tuomas lisalo took over.

During that stretch, the Grizzlies are 20th in Net Rating and 18th in offensive rating, as Iisalo tries to revamp the offense on the fly. He’s putting more control in the hands of Morant, which is a major issue given his latest injury. With Morant hobbled, Memphis will need more production from Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. The ladder poured in 30 points in the loss to the Dubs, splashing five triples along the way.

As for Jackson Jr., he hasn’t fared well historically against AD. Jackson has allowed Davis to average 28 points and 14 rebounds in their previous matchups, on 57% shooting. AD led the way in the Mavs upset victory over Sacramento with 27 points, while Klay Thompson finished with 23.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Advanced Play-In Tournament Stats

Dallas is now 7-3 with Davis healthy, posting a +1.9 Net Rating. The Mavericks are excelling with a two-big lineup featuring AD with one of Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford, outscoring opponents by 23 points when they’re on the floor together.

Memphis will try to combat that with the length of 7’4″ giant Zach Edey, but I don’t believe he’s quick enough to hang with the Dallas bigs.

The Mavericks shot 50% from three against the Kings on Wednesday, and now face a Grizzlies D that allows the 10th most threes per game. I’m confident Klay and Co. can do enough damage from outside, while AD is efficient down low.

Also working in Dallas’ favor is Morant either being out or limited. He’s instrumental in the changes that Iisalo is trying to implement, and I’m not convinced they can be efficient enough with him at less than 100 percent to cover this number.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Player Props

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Mavericks vs Grizzlies Player Props Pick: Zach Edey Under 12.5 Rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

Switching over to the player props market, where Edey’s rebounding line is the target. The over/under is only 12.5 despite Edey averaging 16 rebounds per game over his last seven outings. The books are begging you to bet the over, but I’m not falling for it.

Yes, Edey is playing more under Iisalo, but he’s constantly in foul trouble. He’ll have to pick up AD frequently in his own end, and he’s just not quick enough to keep up. Memphis is going to realize quickly they’ll stand a better chance guarding Davis with other options. Expect fewer minutes for Edey than we’re used to seeing, making it less likely he hits a ceiling rebounding outcome.