Jaxson Dart a Longshot to Be Giants Starting QB in Week 1; Wilson Favored

• Jaxson Dart is +1600 to start Week 1 for the Giants after being taken 25th overall in the NFL Draft
• Russell Wilson is an overwhelming favorite to be the Week 1 starter, after signing a 1-year, $10.5 Million contract
• Keep reading for the complete Giants Week 1 Starting QB odds, plus why Dart isn’t likely to see the field anytime soon

All of a sudden the Giants QB room is one of the most crowded in the NFL. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston signed with New York in free agency, and the team just drafted Jaxson Dart with the 25th-overall pick. Online sportsbooks don’t expect a fierce competition to win the starting job, but could they be placing too much confidence in a declining veteran?

Giants Week 1 Starting QB Odds

As it stands today, Wilson is a -2500 favorite to start Week 1. Winston is the second choice at +1200, followed by Dart at +1600. Tommy DeVito, everyone’s favorite stay-at-home-with-your-parents quarterback, is also listed, but it’s highly unlikely that he even makes the team.

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Follow the Money

It’s clear from the contracts given out that the G-Men want Wilson to be the starting QB. They handed him a 1-year, $10.5 Million contract, guaranteeing every cent. NFL teams aren’t in the business of throwing money away, and at this point they believe he still has something left in the tank.

Perhaps they’re right. Wilson led the Steelers to the playoffs last season, throwing for over 2,400 yards and posting a 16-to-5 TD-to-INT rate over 11 games. At the age of 36, he can be an effective game manager, but there really isn’t much of a ceiling. Wilson ranked 22nd in QBR in 2024, completing only 63.7% of his throws. That was his second lowest completion percentage over the last seven seasons, despite having solid receiving options to work with.

Nevertheless, he’s a massive upgrade over what New York trotted out under center last year. The combination of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tim Boyle and DeVito averaged just 207 passing yards per game, and produced only 15 touchdown passes.

2024 Giants QBR

The Giants defense is on par with some of the best teams in the Super Bowl odds, so all they really need is competent QB play to get this thing back on track. Brian Daboll’s regime needs to show improvement over last year’s 3-14 season if they want stick around, and inserting Wilson is definitely the safest option.

If New York can go 8-9 or better in 2025, Daboll should be safe. That will give him time to develop Dart, a prospect he’s obviously very high on.

Can Winston Be Trusted?

We’ll get to Dart momentarily, but first let’s hit on Winston. He signed a 2-year, $8 Million contract with $5.25 Million guaranteed. That screams backup money, a role he’s perfectly suited to fill. Winston is like a heat check option in the NBA. He can come off the bench and give you instant offense, but the longer he stays in the game the more glaring his weaknesses are.

For Winston, his Kryptonite is protecting the football. He’s thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes over the last three seasons, and has 14 career pick-sixes on his resume. The highs are high, like leading the Browns to an upset of the Ravens last season, but the lows are rock bottom. Who could forget his three INT game last year in Denver, when he threw two pick-sixes to the Broncos.

Winston is exactly the kind of QB you want stepping in for a half or a game here and there, but that’s it. You can’t possibly start the season with him under center if your job is on the line like Daboll’s is.

Prediction for Giants Starting QB in Week 1

As for Dart, he’s very raw. He played in a point and shoot offense at Ole Miss, rarely having to get past his first look. There are things to love, like his decision-making, mobility and accuracy, but he’s a long way away from running an NFL offense, and he isn’t even in the top-ten in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.

He’ll need plenty of time to learn how dissect NFL defenses, and move fluidly through his progressions. Fortunately for him, there are few people better at teaching the QB position than Daboll. He was the driving force behind Josh Allen’s rapid improvement, and he’s hoping to replicate that success with Dart.

While Allen was thrust into the starting role, Dart will have time to develop. The Giants were strategic about this process, signing two veterans to allow Dart time to learn. Think of it like the Patrick Mahomes situation. In a perfect world, Dart will get 15-16 games to learn, and maybe get a start in Week 18 if New York is eliminated from playoff contention.

Which means it’s either Wilson or Winston under center. Baring an injury it’s going to be Wilson, as the risk with Winston is not worth the potential reward. You obviously can’t lay -2500 on Wilson, but any other option is just lighting money on fire.