Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds & Picks for June 3

• Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz is a heavy -1400 favorite to down American Tommy Paul in the French Open quarterfinals
• Alvarez has won three straight head-to-head matches against Paul
• See my Paul vs Alcaraz picks and predictions, along with the odds for the French Open quarterfinal

A trip to the French Open semifinals is on the line on Tuesday as American Tommy Paul, the #12 seed, takes on #2 seed and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.

It’s the first time an American has hit the quarters on the clay courts of Roland Garros since 2003, when Andre Agassi did it. There are actually two Americans in the quarterfinals, which hasn’t happened since 1996. (Find Francis Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti picks here.)

Paul is a massive underdog in this one, which is set to get underway at 2:15pm ET on Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, France, with TBS/truTV/TNT and Max providing the broadcast coverage.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz checks in as a -1400 favorite on the moneyline, with a Paul upset priced at +700 odds. The Spaniard is also a 7.5-game favorite on the spread, and there might be some value there. Perhaps the best line to target here is the total, which is set at 32.5 games.

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Paul vs Alcaraz Picks & Prediction

• Over 32.5 Games (-115)

There is no doubt Alcaraz is expected to dismantle the American and hit the French Open final four. But his run at Roland Garros hasn’t been exactly dominant.

After a straight-sets win over Giulio Zeppieri, the 22-year-old Spaniard went to four sets in each of his next three matches. Last time out, he needed a tiebreak to take the first set against #13 Ben Shelton.

In the last two matches, he’s crossed the 32.5 games set for his match with Paul.

Paul vs Alcaraz H2H Results

Paul showed his best form of the tournament in the fourth round, dusting no. 25 Alexei Popyrin in straight sets. He went the distance in his previous two matches, so a quick win was helpful as he gears up for his biggest match of the tournament.

Alcaraz has won four of the six head-to-head meetings, including the last three matchups. Their only match on clay was the most recent: a straight set win at the Paris Olympics.

Their only meeting in a major was in Wimbledon last year, with Alcaraz winning in four sets. They’ve gone the full three sets at ATP 1000 stops in Cincinnati, Toronto, and Montreal.

With their history of duking it out on the court, and both guys far from perfect during their run to the French Open quarterfinal, Paul can definitely take a set on Tuesday. A competitive four-set match isn’t out of the question, and would be an easy win on the total.