Musk vs Trump Odds – Will Elon Rejoin Administration? WIll Musk Unfollow Trump on X?

• The rift between Elon Musk and Donald Trump appears to be growing by the hour
• Trump is now threatening to terminate Musk’s government contracts
• See the latest Musk vs Trump odds and props from the prediction site Kalshi

Two of the most divisive men in the country have begun the process of dividing from each other. Joined at the hip two weeks ago, billionaire Elon Musk and President Donald Trump now find themselves at odds over a number of issues.

Musk, who joined the Trump administration as the de facto head of the recently-made-up “department of government efficiency”, vehemently disapproves of Trump’s new tax bill. Trump, of course, vehemently disapproves of anyone who criticizes him.

Musk left his post at the White House last week and the rift between him and the president has only grown since, escalating severely on Thursday afternoon.

Prediction site Kalshi now has a number of props pertaining to the two ubiquitous newsmakers. The first is whether Musk will rejoin the Trump administration at any point before the calendar turns to 2026.

Odds Musk Rejoins Trump Administration This Year

Prices and percentages from Kalshi at 4:34 pm ET, June 57h. New users can claim the Kalshi promo code to get a sign-up bonus.

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The odds Musk rejoins the Trump administration in 2025 opened with a 15% chance late last night, but that number has already declined significantly. As of 4:30 pm ET on Thursday, the Yes contracts were trading at just 7¢, meaning that Kalshi users who buy Yes contracts at 7¢ will return a 93¢ profit for each one of those contracts if Musk rejoins the Trump administration.

Of course, if he doesn’t, the Yes contracts will return zero dollars, and the No contracts will pay out. But a No contract purchased at 97¢will only profit 3¢ per contract.

The second Musk/Trump prediction market is far more petty, asking whether Musk will unfollow Trump on X.

Will Elon Musk Unfollow Donald Trump on X This Year

The current prices indicate there is a 69% chance that Musk does go full high-school and unfollow his former friend on social media.

This prediction market has only been open for roughly 11 hours but the changes in price are both significant and fascinating. The first Yes contracts were purchased around 22¢. The Yes has been steadily on the rise all day, though, and is now trading at 69¢, a massive increase.

Early traders who bought their Yes contracts at 22¢ would already be able to sell those contracts at a huge profit.

While unfollowing the President has a very school-kid feel to it, there is ample reason to think that Musk is harboring intensely negative feelings towards Trump. Not only does he vehemently disapprove of Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”, but Trump has threatened to cut government contracts for Musk’s companies (Tesla, SpaceX).

The two have been firing shots at each other on X all day long, mostly related to the other’s fiscal and political choices, but not exclusively.