Dream vs Sun Picks, Prediction, Odds & Props (June 6)

• The Atlanta Dream are 10-point favorites over the Connecticut Sun in WNBA Commissioner’s Cup action tonight
• Atlanta blew out Connecticut by 24 points in their first meeting this season
• See below for my Dream vs Sun picks and prediction, as well as odds and props to target

Two teams going in opposite directions meet tonight in WNBA Commissioner’s Cup play. The Atlanta Dream (5-2) bring a four-game winning streak into action against a Connecticut Sun (1-6) squad that’s won just once all season. Atlanta has yet to make its Commissioner’s Cup debut, while Connecticut dropped its first Cup game by 48 points last time out.

Tip-off is set for 7:30 pm ET inside the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT, with ION providing the broadcast coverage.

ATL Dream vs CON Sun Picks

• Atlanta Dream -10 (-110 at DraftKings)

When it comes to this matchup, everything is telling us to back the Dream. Bettors feel the same way, as the spread for this game has already moved from Atlanta -9 to -10 since opening odds were released.

Let’s start with the advanced numbers. The Dream are the WNBA’s second best offense behind only the New York Liberty. Speaking of New York, they were Connecticut’s opening Commission’s Cup opponent, and they promptly waxed the Sun 100-52. Atlanta doesn’t possess the same defensive prowess as the Liberty, but this is a team on the rise that can beat you both inside and out.

Atlanta’s guard play is elite led by Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray. Howard is fresh off a 33-point outburst in a victory over Seattle, splashing 12 field goals, including 4 threes. Inside, the Dream has twin towers Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones to dominate the paint, with each woman putting up 12+ points and 6+ boards.

That gives Atlanta four double-digit scorers anchored by Gray, who has 25+ points in three of her last four games. Gray had a team-high 18 points in the Dream’s 79-55 win over the Sun earlier in the season, in a game Griner didn’t even play. Atlanta’s offense is the primary reason they’re a trendy WNBA Championship odds longshot, increasing their points per game average to 85.9 this year, after scoring a league-low 77 points per outing in 2024.

ATL vs CON Advanced Stats

Connecticut meanwhile, finally got a win against a Caitlin Clark-less Fever squad last week, only to get blown out by New York two days later. The Sun allowed the Liberty to shot 61% from the field, en route to losing by 20+ for the fourth time in seven games.

Connecticut boasts the worst Defensive Rating in the league, as well as a Net Rating that is 11 points worse than anyone else’s. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 40% from three and dish out 21 assists, while fouling at the WNBA’s second highest rate.

Offensively, they’ve been getting significant production from Tina Charles (16 ppg) and Marina Mabrey (15 ppg), but after that the depth is non-existent. No other player is scoring in double-figures, while the Dream have the size to slow down Charles inside. Charles scored just 11 points in their first meeting, on a season-low 25% from the field.

Dream vs Sun Player Props

WNBA props from DraftKings and FanDuel on June 6. Download the top NBA betting apps before betting on the NBA Finals.

Dream vs Sun Prediction

• Allisha Gray Over 17.5 Points (+100 at DraftKings)

Moving over to the player props market now, where I’m betting over 17.5 points for Gray. It’s a mark she’s cleared in four straight, and five of seven overall, with her only two failures coming against an Indiana team that is among the top-4 in Defensive Rating.

Gray’s consistently averaging double-digit shot attempts, along with 7-8 free throws per contest. She’s shot 53% or better in four consecutive starts, splashing an average of three triples per night. Against by far the weakest defense in the WNBA, she should have no problem clearing this line, even if her minutes ceiling is reduced with the potential blowout risk.

Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Odds

The best place to bet Atlanta against the spread is FanDuel, where they’re half a point lower than market with Atlanta -10. DraftKings is the spot to bet the over 158 point total at -112 odds, while FD offers the highest payout for Connecticut to pull of the upset at +360. Odds as of June 6 at DraftKings and FanDuel. See the DraftKings promo code details before signing up.

The Sun are 2-5 against the spread so far this season, but it’s worth noting that both covers came as double-digit underdogs. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS, covering in all five of their victories.