Final UFC Atlanta Odds & Expert Picks for Fight Night (June. 14)

• UFC Atlanta takes place Saturday night at State Farm Arena
• There’s been notable line movement across the card since early predictions
• Check out the latest UFC Atlanta odds shifts and expert final picks below

UFC Fight night has arrived, and the betting market has made its voice heard. Since our early UFC Atlanta predictions, we’ve seen notable line movement across Saturday’s card at State Farm Arena. The main event has tightened slightly while several prelim fights have seen dramatic shifts as sharp money pours in.

Kamaru Usman returns as a bigger underdog than when lines opened, while the bantamweight bout between Cody Garbrandt and Raoni Barcelos has seen the most significant swing on the main card.

Let’s dive into the UFC Atlanta odds and determine where the value lies with these updated numbers.

Updated UFC Atlanta Odds

Raoni Barcelos has seen notable movement, going from -180 to -258 against Cody Garbrandt. Sharp money poured in after his impressive win over previously undefeated Payton Talbott.

Mansur Abdul-Malik’s line has also exploded from -800 to -1050, creating one of the most lopsided betting lines we’ve seen this year.

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Odds as of June 14th, 2025 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps to get in on the action tonight.

Final UFC Atlanta Predictions

With the lines settled and walkouts hours away, here are my final picks for Saturday’s card in Atlanta.

Best Bet: Andre Petroski ML (+124 at DraftKings)

The line has moved in our favor since the early predictions. Petroski opened at +154 and has been bet down to +124, but there’s still value here. The former Division I wrestler and BJJ black belt matches up perfectly with Shahbazyan, who’s lost to every high-level grappler he’s faced.

Shahbazyan is 2-2 in his last four, with both losses coming via ground strikes or submission. His takedown defense sits at just 44%, and once Petroski gets on top, he’s relentless with ground and pound.

The books are overvaluing Shahbazyan’s last knockout win, as Petroski presents a completely different challenge. At plus money, this is the UFC best bet of the night.

Value Play: Raoni Barcelos by Decision (+150 at DraftKings)

The sharp money has spoken, and I’m listening. Barcelos has been hammered from -180 to -258, and for good reason. His masterclass against previously unbeaten Payton Talbott showed a fighter who’s finally put it all together with patient counter-striking, improved takedown defense, and elite fight IQ.

While the moneyline has gotten too expensive, Barcelos by decision at +150 presents excellent value. Garbrandt’s chin is compromised after being dropped or finished in five of his last eight losses. But Barcelos isn’t a power puncher; he’s a volume striker who breaks opponents down over three rounds.

The Brazilian has a 67-inch reach and superior cardio that should allow him to control the later rounds. This is exactly the type of fight that goes to the cards, with Barcelos winning 29-28.

Main Event Pick: Joaquin Buckley to Finish Kamaru Usman

The line has tightened from -258 to -218, but Buckley remains the right side here. The 31-year-old “New Mansa” has been knocking off legends left and right, taking out Luque, Thompson, and Covington. Usman is next on the hit list.

Usman’s body is breaking down. We’re talking about a 38-year-old who hasn’t won a fight in nearly four years. His knees are so shot that he literally walks down stairs backwards. That’s not an exaggeration, as multiple people close to his camp have confirmed this. How’s he going to generate the explosive entries needed for takedowns?

Usman vs Buckley H2H

Buckley hits like a truck and moves like a sports car. His 73% takedown defense will hold up against a diminished Usman, and once he starts landing those sledgehammer shots, it’s only a matter of time. The former champ has been hurt in his last three fights. Edwards knocked him out cold, and both Chimaev and Edwards had him badly wobbled.

I’m doubling down on my early prediction. Buckley gets this done inside three rounds, and at +140 for the KO/TKO, there’s still value despite the line movement. At plus-money, we’re getting a gift from the books who remember Usman’s championship reign but haven’t adjusted for his current physical state.

• Main Event Pick: Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO (+140 at DraftKings)

Other UFC Atlanta Final Predictions & Best Bets:

• Miranda Maverick ML (+195) One of my top early picks at +210, but still plenty of value at +195. Maverick is five years younger than Namajunas and riding a 4-win streak. Her elevation training and hunger should make the difference.
• Paul Craig by submission (+600) Massive value against a gasser in Bellato. Craig only needs one opening to lock up a triangle or armbar. He’s submitted better fighters than Bellato, and at 6-to-1 odds, it’s worth a sprinkle.
• Malcolm Wellmaker under 1.5 rounds (-175) in what should be another highlight reel KO